Articles | Volume 7-osr10
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-5-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-5-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
30 Sep 2026
| OSR10 | Chapter 2.2
| 30 Sep 2026 | OSR10 | Chapter 2.2
Establishing a monitoring approach for marine heatwaves in the Black and Mediterranean Seas
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Rafael Gomes de Menezes
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Ehsan Sadighrad
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Ronan McAdam
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Filipe Costa
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Pietro Miraglio
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Mehmet Ilicak
Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Eric Jansen
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Ali Aydogdu
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Francesco Maicu
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce 73100, LE, Italy
Related authors
Filipe Costa, Ehsan Sadighrad, Leonardo Lima, Ali Aydoğdu, Mehmet Ilicak, Diana Azevedo, and Emanuela Clementi
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-17, 2026
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater is essential to the Black Sea, supporting marine ecosystems, coastal management, and climate services. This study presents the first long-term assessment of freshwater storage changes using a high-resolution regional dataset. We show that freshwater has declined mainly because of increasing evaporation and decreasing river discharge. This new indicator supports long-term monitoring of environmental change in the Black Sea.
Leonardo Lima, Diana Azevedo, Mehmet Ilicak, Eric Jansen, Filipe Costa, Adil Sozer, Pietro Miraglio, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 22, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1051-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1051-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We used a high-resolution ocean model to investigate how the Black Sea is responding to external drivers, including climate change. Our results show clear warming, particularly in the upper 150 m, and reveal significant changes in ocean circulation and water masses. The model also supports the development of ocean monitoring indicators that help track the sea’s response to climate-related trends and improve our understanding of how ocean conditions in the Black Sea evolve.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Leonardo Lima, Salvatore Causio, Mehmet Ilicak, Ronan McAdam, and Eric Jansen
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have revealed an increase in the ocean temperature and heat content in the Black Sea, where the research on marine heat waves (MHWs) is still incipient. Our study reveals long-lasting MHWs and interesting connections between surface and subsurface MHWs in the Black Sea. Our analysis is a starting point to create a monitoring system of MHWs for the Black Sea.
Alex Hayward, Nishka Dasgupta, Ronan McAdam, Mark R. Payne, Roshin P. Raj, Giulia Bonino, Sourav Chatterjee, Vincent Combes, Dimitra Denaxa, Francesco De Rovere, Pia Englyst, Veera Haapaniemi, Paul Hargous, Jacob Høyer, K. Ajith Joseph, Beatriz Lopes, Ana Oliveira, João Paixão, Fabiola Silva, Saradhy Surendran, Artemis Zegna-Rata, and Steffen M. Olsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 7181–7197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-7181-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-7181-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global marine heatwave and cold spell dataset (1982–2024) based on satellite sea surface temperature. The dataset applies multiple definitions in parallel, varying baselines, thresholds, detrending, and event durations. It enables consistent comparisons of marine heatwave characterisation across methods and supports climate monitoring, and ecological impact studies.
Federica Borile, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Jue Lin-Ye, Anna Mangilli, Emanuela Clementi, and Paolo Oddo
State Planet, 7-osr10, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-13-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-13-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level decadal trends are analysed in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean Sea using satellite and in-situ data. We found that sea level rise is not constant but varies over decades and differs between regions. These changes are influenced by temperature, salinity, and local land movements. Understanding this variability helps improve coastal planning and prepares communities for changing sea levels in the near future.
Francesco De Rovere, Giulia Bonino, Ronan McAdam, Enrico Scoccimarro, Samuel Somot, Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Bodo Ahrens, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laurent Li, and Simona Masina
Ocean Sci., 22, 2725–2742, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2725-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2725-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea are intensifying, posing growing threats to marine life and coastal communities. We evaluated if high-resolution regional climate models better capture these extremes compared to the global models driving them. Regional models reliably improve sea surface temperature patterns and marine heatwave duration, but struggle more with heatwave intensity. Higher horizontal resolution alone is not enough, advances in other model components are equally needed.
Ronan McAdam, Antonella Sanna, Giulia Bonino, and Enrico Scoccimarro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5138, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
Wind-driven upwelling brings nutrient-rich water to the surface, supporting rich ecosystems and fisheries. In 2025, the Gulf of Panama's upwelling collapsed, causing unusually warm water with little chlorophyll. We tested whether seasonal forecasts could have predicted this event. Forecasts captured the weak winds and warm temperatures a season ahead. This shows seasonal forecasting can give early warning of upwelling collapse, helping coastal communities and authorities prepare.
Francesco Maicu, Seimur Shirinov, Charikleia L. G. Oikonomou, Vitalii Sharmar, Lucia Gualtieri, Anna Chiara Goglio, Ehsan Sadighrad, Dimitra Denaxa, Aimie Moulin, Bethany McDonagh, Salvatore Causio, Emanuela Clementi, Gerasimos Korres, Ivan Federico, and Enrico Scoccimarro
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-12, 2026
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
In January 2026, an exceptional storm brought record waves, flooding, and strong currents to the Mediterranean Sea. To understand its coastal impact, we combined data from Europe's ocean monitoring service with a detailed coastal computer model, tracking the storm from open sea to shore. We found unusually high waves, raised sea levels, and strong changes in currents and saltiness. Combining wide-area forecasts with local models improves flood prediction, supporting earlier coastal warning.
Anna Chiara Goglio, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, Giulio Boccaletti, Paolo Oddo, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4734, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Venice, one of the world's most famous cities, is threatened by flooding, locally known as Acqua Alta. Based on numerical results from the Copernicus Marine Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System, we investigate each process involved in the dynamics of these events to improve their predictability. For the first time, we identify processes occurring within the water column that contribute to the sea level peak, providing new insight into the understanding and modeling of Acqua Alta events.
Lucia Gualtieri, Hans Burchard, Federica Borile, Aimie Moulin, Pietro Miraglio, Francesco Maicu, Emanuela Clementi, and Paolo Oddo
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7041–7068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7041-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7041-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses a gap in understanding how turbulent mixing closure schemes and convective adjustments interplay in the Mediterranean Sea. Coupled ocean-wave simulations were performed with different mixing parameterizations and model results were compared against Argo float observations across different space and time scales. Results show that the Generalised Length Scale closure scheme best reproduces observed mixed layer properties and variability, without needing convective adjustment.
Filipe Costa, Ehsan Sadighrad, Leonardo Lima, Ali Aydoğdu, Mehmet Ilicak, Diana Azevedo, and Emanuela Clementi
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-17, 2026
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater is essential to the Black Sea, supporting marine ecosystems, coastal management, and climate services. This study presents the first long-term assessment of freshwater storage changes using a high-resolution regional dataset. We show that freshwater has declined mainly because of increasing evaporation and decreasing river discharge. This new indicator supports long-term monitoring of environmental change in the Black Sea.
Anna Chiara Goglio, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Paolo Oddo, Emanuela Clementi, and Federica Borile
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-7, 2026
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean coastal communities are increasingly threatened by extreme sea level events. We built an indicator combining model and observed data to summarize their changes. The analysis of their evolution revealed that the associated hazard is rising along the entire coastline, especially in the northern Adriatic, the Aegean Sea, and along Turkish and Cypriot coasts. This trend is mostly driven by sea level rise, except for the Adriatic Sea, where strong storm effects play a bigger role.
Laura Feudale, Giorgio Bolzon, Gianpiero Cossarini, Anna Teruzzi, Emanuela Clementi, and Stefano Salon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3413, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of physical forcing frequency on Mediterranean biogeochemical simulations. Using 6-hourly instead of daily ocean fields improves phytoplankton bloom and nutrient patterns through a better representation of vertical transport processes, highlighting the importance of high-frequency variability for ecosystem forecasting.
Manuel Vargas-Yáñez, Orens Pasqueron de Fommervault, Emanuela Clementi, Christian Ferrarin, Svitlana Liubertseva, Diego Álvarez-Berastegui, Baptiste Mourre, Salvatore Aronica, Rosa Balbin, Joaquín Ballabrera-Poy, Sana Ben Ismail, Nathaniel Benssousan, Ismail Bessa, Alicia Blanco, Anthony Bosse, Evi Bourma, François Bourrin, Carlo Brandini, Fulvio Capodici, Clara Casals-Baixas, Branko Cermelj, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Pascal Conan, Laurent Coppola, Lorenzo Corgnati, Joaquín del Río, Emilie Diamond Riquier, Lara Diaz-Barroso, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Xavier Durrieu de Madron, Milad Fakhri, Costantine Frangoulis, Claudia Fratianni, Emilio García-Ladona, Jesus García-Lafuente, M. Carmen García-Martínez, Joaquín Garrabou, Josep Gasol, Adam Gauci, Frédéric Gazeau, Gerard Gregory, Abed El Raman Hassoun, Jordi Isern-Fontanet, Dominique Lefevre, Nadia Lo Bue, Guiomar López, Pablo Lorente, Deny Malengros, Ramon Massana, Sinan Mavruk, Stefano Miserocchi, Behzad Mostajir, Laure Mousseau, Francina Moya, Antonio Novellino, Arianna Orasi, Emanuele Organelli, Vicent Ouisse, Tal Ozer, Begoña Pérez-Gómez, Susana Pérez-Rubio, Leonidas Perivoliotis, Georges Petihakis, Anne Petrenko, Sebastien Pinel, Xavier Pitarch, Angela Pomaro, Lucía Quirós-Collazos, Emma Reyes, Simone Sammartino, Anna Sánchez-Vidal, Katrin Schroeder, Stefano Taddei, Elena Tel, Pierre Testor, Marco Torri, Daniela Turk, Laura Ursella, Dimitris Velaoras, Francesca Vidussi, Ivica Vilivić, Enrico Zambiachi, D. Nikolaos Zarokanellos, George Zodiatis, and Vanessa Cardin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2632, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This work compiles current marine observation capabilities in the Mediterranean Sea, making this information accessible to scientists, organizations, stakeholders, and environmental policymakers. It supports initiatives such as Copernicus Marine Service, EMODNet, the European Ocean Pact, and EU directives. It is intended as a living resource to be updated, identifying strengths and gaps in Mediterranean observation systems.
Simona Masina, Andrea Cipollone, Doroteaciro Iovino, Stefania Ciliberti, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretí, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Giovanni Coppini, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-887, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents GOFS16, an eddy-resolving global operational ocean and sea ice forecasting system which provides 6-day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents, sea level, and sea ice properties. The system assimilates satellite and in situ observations using a 3D variational data assimilation scheme. Validation is conducted routinely using global and regional metrics. Results indicate that GOFS16 performs within the expected range of skill for current global systems.
Leonardo Lima, Diana Azevedo, Mehmet Ilicak, Eric Jansen, Filipe Costa, Adil Sozer, Pietro Miraglio, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 22, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1051-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1051-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We used a high-resolution ocean model to investigate how the Black Sea is responding to external drivers, including climate change. Our results show clear warming, particularly in the upper 150 m, and reveal significant changes in ocean circulation and water masses. The model also supports the development of ocean monitoring indicators that help track the sea’s response to climate-related trends and improve our understanding of how ocean conditions in the Black Sea evolve.
Mahmud Hasan Ghani, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Silvia Bianconcini, Francesco Maicu, and Francesco Trotta
Ocean Sci., 22, 427–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-427-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Using the same sea surface temperature and the same bulk formula but different atmospheric reanalysis and analysis surface-variable datasets, we show that a higher-resolution dataset is crucial for evaluating the heat-budget closure hypothesis in the Mediterranean Sea. For the first time, we investigate the impact of extreme heat-loss events in the Mediterranean Sea by computing the long-term, basin-averaged mean heat budget.
Paolo Oddo, Mario Adani, Francesco Carere, Andrea Cipollone, Anna Chiara Goglio, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesca Mele, Italo Epicoco, Jenny Pistoia, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 423–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study present a data assimilation system that combines ocean observational data with ocean model results to better understand the ocean and predict its future state. The method uses a three dimensional incremental variational approach focusing on the physical relationships between all the state vector variables errors. Testing in the Mediterranean Sea showed that a complex sea level operator based on a barotropic model works best.
Salvatore Causio, Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Giovanni De Cillis, Emanuela Clementi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Giovanni Coppini
Ocean Sci., 21, 1105–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how waves and ocean currents interact during severe weather, focusing on Medicane Ianos, one of the strongest storms in the Mediterranean. Using advanced modeling, we created a unique system to simulate these interactions, capturing effects like wave-induced water levels and wave-induced effects on the vertical structure of the ocean. We validated our approach with ideal tests and real data from the storm.
Mauro Cirano, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Emanuela Clementi, Boris Dewitte, Matias Dinápoli, Ghada El Serafy, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Ivonne Montes, Diego A. Narvaez, Heather Regan, Claudia G. Simionato, Gregory C. Smith, Joanna Staneva, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Pramod Thupaki, Claudia Urbano-Latorre, Jennifer Veitch, and Jorge Zavala Hidalgo
State Planet, 5-opsr, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are crucial for human activities, environmental monitoring, and policymaking. An assessment across eight key regions highlights strengths and gaps, particularly in coastal and biogeochemical forecasting. AI offers improvements, but collaboration, knowledge sharing, and initiatives like the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Centre (DCC) are key to enhancing accuracy, accessibility, and global forecasting capabilities.
Jennifer Veitch, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Fraser Davidson, Ghada el Serafy, Guilherme Franz, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Svitlana Liubartseva, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Heather Regan, and Katerina Spanoudaki
State Planet, 5-opsr, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean forecast systems provide information about a future state of the ocean. This information is provided in the form of decision support tools, or downstream applications, that can be accessed by various stakeholders to support livelihoods, coastal resilience and the good governance of the marine environment. This paper provides an overview of the various downstream applications of ocean forecast systems that are utilized around the world.
Siren Rühs, Ton van den Bremer, Emanuela Clementi, Michael C. Denes, Aimie Moulin, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 21, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating the transport of floating particles on the ocean surface is crucial for solving many societal issues. Here, we investigate how the representation of wind-generated surface waves impacts particle transport simulations. We find that different wave-driven processes can alter transport patterns and that commonly adopted approximations are not always adequate. This suggests that ideally coupled ocean–wave models should be used for surface particle transport simulations.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Anna Teruzzi, Ali Aydogdu, Carolina Amadio, Emanuela Clementi, Simone Colella, Valeria Di Biagio, Massimiliano Drudi, Claudia Fanelli, Laura Feudale, Alessandro Grandi, Pietro Miraglio, Andrea Pisano, Jenny Pistoia, Marco Reale, Stefano Salon, Gianluca Volpe, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 4-osr8, 15, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A noticeable cold spell occurred in Eastern Europe at the beginning of 2022 and was the main driver of intense deep-water formation and the associated transport of nutrients to the surface. Southeast of Crete, the availability of both light and nutrients in the surface layer stimulated an anomalous phytoplankton bloom. In the area, chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for bloom intensity) and primary production were considerably higher than usual, suggesting possible impacts on fishery catches.
Ronan McAdam, Giulia Bonino, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 4-osr8, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the summer of 2022, a regional short-term forecasting system was able to predict the onset, spread, peaks, and decay of a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea up to 10 d in advance. Satellite data show that the event was record-breaking in terms of basin-wide intensity and duration. This study demonstrates the potential of state-of-the-art forecasting systems to provide early warning of marine heatwaves for marine activities (e.g. conservation and aquaculture).
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Giulia Bonino, Giuliano Galimberti, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 20, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Ali Aydogdu, Pietro Miraglio, Romain Escudier, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 1-osr7, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the salt content, salinity anomaly and trend in the Mediterranean Sea using observational and reanalysis products. The salt content increases overall, while negative salinity anomalies appear in the western basin, especially around the upwelling regions. There is a large spread in the salinity estimates that is reduced with the emergence of the Argo profilers.
Andrea Cipollone, Deep Sankar Banerjee, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ali Aydogdu, and Simona Masina
Ocean Sci., 19, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-ice volume is characterized by low predictability compared to the sea ice area or the extent. A joint initialization of the thickness and concentration using satellite data could improve the predictive power, although it is still absent in the present global analysis–reanalysis systems. This study shows a scheme to correct the two features together that can be easily extended to include ocean variables. The impact of such a joint initialization is shown and compared among different set-ups.
Leonardo Lima, Salvatore Causio, Mehmet Ilicak, Ronan McAdam, and Eric Jansen
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have revealed an increase in the ocean temperature and heat content in the Black Sea, where the research on marine heat waves (MHWs) is still incipient. Our study reveals long-lasting MHWs and interesting connections between surface and subsurface MHWs in the Black Sea. Our analysis is a starting point to create a monitoring system of MHWs for the Black Sea.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Cited articles
Amaya, D. J., Jacox, M. G., Fewings, M. R., Saba, V. S., Stuecker, M. F., Rykaczewski, R. R., Ross, A. C., Stock, C. A., Capotondi, A., Petrik, C. M., Bograd, S. J., Alexander, M. A., Cheng, W., Hermann, A. J., Kearney, K. A., and Powell, B. S.: Marine heatwaves need clear definitions so coastal communities can adapt, Nature, 616, 29–32, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00924-2, 2023.
Beuvier, J., Béranger, K., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Somot, S., Sevault, F., Drillet, Y., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Ferry, N., and Lyard, F.: Spreading of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water after winter 2005: Time scales and deep cyclone transport, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007679, 2012.
Bonino, G., Masina, S., Galimberti, G., and Moretti, M.: Southern Europe and western Asian marine heatwaves (SEWA-MHWs): a dataset based on macroevents, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, 2023.
Capet, A., Vandenbulcke, L., and Grégoire, M.: A new intermittent regime of convective ventilation threatens the Black Sea oxygenation status, Biogeosciences, 17, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6507-2020, 2020.
Capotondi, A., Rodrigues, R. R., Sen Gupta, A., Benthuysen, J. A., Deser, C., Frölicher, T. L., Lovenduski, N. S., Amaya, D. J., Le Grix, N., Xu, T., Hermes, J., Holbrook, N. J., Martinez-Villalobos, C., Masina, S., Koll Roxy, M., Schaeffer, A., Schlegel, R. W., Smith, K. E., and Wang, C.: A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 701, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01806-9, 2024.
Cheminée, A., Le Direach, L., Rouanet, E., Astruch, P., Goujard, A., Blanfuné, A., Bonhomme, D., Chassaing, L., Jouvenel, J.-Y., Ruitton, S., Thibaut, T., and Harmelin-Vivien, M.: All shallow coastal habitats matter as nurseries for Mediterranean juvenile fish, Sci. Rep., 11, 14631, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93557-2, 2021.
Cheng, Y., Zhang, M., Song, Z., Wang, G., Zhao, C., Shu, Q., Zhang, Y., and Qiao, F.: A quantitative analysis of marine heatwaves in response to rising sea surface temperature, Sci. Total Environ., 881, 163396, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163396, 2023.
Cooley, S., D. Schoeman, L. Bopp, P. Boyd, S. Donner, D. Y. Ghebrehiwet, S.-I. Ito, W. Kiessling, P. Martinetto, E. Ojea, M.-F. Racault, B. Rost, and M. Skern-Mauritzen: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services, In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 379–550, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.005, 2022.
Darmaraki, S., Denaxa, D., Theodorou, I., Livanou, E., Rigatou, D., Raitsos, D. E., Stavrakidis-Zachou, O., Dimarchopoulou, D., Bonino, G., McAdam, R., Organelli, E., Pitsouni, A., and Parasyris, A.: Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea: A literature review, Mediterr. Mar. Sci., 25, 586–620, https://doi.org/10.12681/mms.38392, 2024.
Dayan, H., McAdam, R., Masina, S., and Speich, S.: Diversity of marine heatwave trends across the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, 6, 205–210, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2022.2095169, 2022.
Dayan, H., McAdam, R., Juza, M., Masina, S., and Speich, S.: Marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: An assessment from the surface to the subsurface to meet national needs, Frontiers in Marine Science, 10, 1045138, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1045138, 2023.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Denamiel, C., Tojčić, I., and Pranić, P.: A new vision of the Adriatic Dense Water future under extreme warming, Ocean Sci., 21, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025, 2025.
Drévillon, M., Lellouche, J.-M., Régnier, C., Garric, G., Bricaud, C., Hernandez, O., and Bourdallé-Badie, R.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Quality Information Document for the Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis, GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_001_030, issue 1.6, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/QUID/CMEMS-GLO-QUID-001-030.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024a.
Drévillon, M., Fernandez, E., and Lellouche, J.-M.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Product User Manual for the Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis, GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_001_030, issue 1.6, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/PUM/CMEMS-GLO-PUM-001-030.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024b.
Dutheil, C., Lal, S., Lengaigne, M., Cravatte, S., Menkès, C., Receveur, A., Börgel, F., Gröger, M., Houlbreque, F., Le Gendre, R., Mangolte, I., Peltier, A., and Meier, H. E. M.: The massive 2016 marine heatwave in the Southwest Pacific: An “El Niño–Madden-Julian Oscillation” compound event, Sci. Adv., 10, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adp2948, 2024.
Embury, O., Merchant, C. J., Good, S. A., Rayner, N. A., Høyer, J. L., Atkinson, C., Block, T., Alerskans, E., Pearson, K. J., Worsfold, M., McCarroll, N., and Donlon, C.: Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1980 for climate applications, Sci. Data, 11, 326, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03147-w, 2024.
Escudier, R., Clementi, E., Cipollone, A., Pistoia, J., Drudi, M., Grandi, A., Lyubartsev, V., Lecci, R., Aydoğdu, A., Delrosso, D., Omar, M., Masina, S., Coppini, G., and Pinardi, N.: A high resolution reanalysis for the Mediterranean Sea, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 702285, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.702285, 2021.
Escudier, R., Clementi, E., Nigam, T., Aydogdu, A., Fini, E., Pistoia, J., Grandi, A., and Miraglio, P.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Quality Information Document for the Mediterranean Sea Physics Reanalysis, MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004, issue 2.4, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/QUID/CMEMS-MED-QUID-006-004.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024.
Estaque, T., Richaume, J., Bianchimani, O., Schull, Q., Mérigot, B., Bensoussan, N., Bonhomme, P., Vouriot, P., Sartoretto, S., Monfort, T., Basthard-Bogain, S., Fargetton, M., Gatti, G., Barth, L., Cheminée, A., and Garrabou, J.: Marine heatwaves on the rise: One of the strongest ever observed mass mortality event in temperate gorgonians, Glob. Change Biol., 29, 6159–6162, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16931, 2023.
Estournel, C., Estaque, T., Ulses, C., Barral, Q.-B., and Marsaleix, P.: Extreme sensitivity of the northeastern Gulf of Lion (western Mediterranean) to subsurface heatwaves: physical processes and insights into effects on gorgonian populations in the summer of 2022, Ocean Sci., 21, 1487–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1487-2025, 2025.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Product: Black Sea – High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00160, 2024a.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Product: Mediterranean Sea – High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00173, 2024b.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Product: Black Sea Physics Reanalysis, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00356, 2024c.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Product: Mediterranean Sea Physics Reanalysis, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004_E3R1, 2024d.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Product: Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00021, 2024e.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Information: Black Sea Ocean Heat Content Anomaly (0–300 m) time series and trend from Reanalysis & Multi-Observations Reprocessing, Mercator Ocean International, https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00306, 2024a.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Information: Mediterranean Ocean Heat Content Anomaly (0–700 m) time series and trend from Reanalysis & Multi-Observations Reprocessing, Mercator Ocean International, https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00261, 2024b.
EU Copernicus Marine Service Information: Mediterranean Water Mass Formation Rates from Reanalysis, Mercator Ocean International, https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00318, 2024c.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Gačić, M., Lascaratos, A., Manca, B. B., and Mantziafou, A.: Adriatic deep water and interaction with the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, in: Physical oceanography of the Adriatic Sea: Past, present and future, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 111–142, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9819-4_4, 2001.
Garrabou, J., Gómez-Gras, D., Medrano, A., Cerrano, C., Ponti, M., Schlegel, R., Bensoussan, N., Turicchia, E., Sini, M., Gerovasileiou, V., Teixido, N., Mirasole, A., Tamburello, L., Cebrian, E., Rilov, G., Ledoux, J.-B., Ben Souissi, J., Khamassi, F., Ghanem, R., Benabdi, M., Grimes, S., Ocaña, O., Bazairi, H., Hereu, B., Linares, C., Kersting, D. K., la Rovira, G., Ortega, J., Casals, D., Pagès-Escolà, M., Margarit, N., Capdevila, P., Verdura, J., Ramos, A., Izquierdo, A., Barbera, C., Rubio-Portillo, E., Anton, I., López-Sendino, P., Díaz, D., Vázquez-Luis, M., Duarte, C., Marbà, N., Aspillaga, E., Espinosa, F., Grech, D., Guala, I., Azzurro, E., Farina, S., Gambi, M. C., Chimienti, G., Montefalcone, M., Azzola, A., Pulido Mantas, T., Fraschetti, S., Ceccherelli, G., Kipson, S., Bakran-Petricioli, T., Petricioli, D., Jimenez, C., Katsanevakis, S., Kizilkaya, I. T., Kizilkaya, Z., Sartoretto, S., Elodie, R., Ruitton, S., Comeau, S., Gattuso, J.-P., and Harmelin, J.-G.: Marine heatwaves drive recurrent mass mortalities in the Mediterranean Sea, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 5708–5725, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16301, 2022.
Granata, A., Cubeta, A., Minutoli, R., Bergamasco, A., and Guglielmo, L.: Distribution and abundance of fish larvae in the northern Ionian Sea (Eastern Mediterranean), Helgoland Mar. Res., 65, 381–398, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10152-010-0231-2, 2011.
Gregory, C. H., Artana, C., Lama, S., León-FonFay, D., Sala, J., Xiao, F., Xu, T., Capotondi, A., Martinez-Villalobos, C., and Holbrook, N. J.: Global marine heatwaves under different flavors of ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110399, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110399, 2024.
Gunduz, G., Causio, S., Bonino, G., Vandenbulcke, L., Gregorie, M., Lima, L., Ciliberti, S., Ilicak, M., Aydogdu, A., Masina, S., Coppini, G., and Pinardi, N.: Coastal upwelling along the Turkish coast of the Black Sea: Its role in the distribution of the hydrographic properties, in: Copernicus Ocean State Report, issue 6, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 15, s205–s211, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2022.2095169, 2022.
Hamdeno, M. and Alvera-Azcaráte, A.: Marine heatwaves characteristics in the Mediterranean Sea: Case study the 2019 heatwave events, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1093760, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1093760, 2023.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Munoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E. V., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Scannell, H. A., Sen Gupta, A., and Wernberg, T.: A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves, Prog. Oceanogr., 141, 227–238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014, 2016.
Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E. C. J., Sen Gupta, A., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Thomsen, M. S., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Categorizing and naming marine heatwaves, Oceanography, 31, 162–173, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.205, 2018.
Holbrook, N. J., Scannell, H. A., Sen Gupta, A., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., Oliver, E. C. J., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Hobday, A. J., Moore, P. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., and Wernberg, T.: A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers, Nat. Commun., 10, 2624, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10206-z, 2019.
Houpert, L., Testor, P., Durrieu de Madron, X., Somot, S., D'Ortenzio, F., Estournel, C., and Lavigne, H.: Seasonal cycle of the mixed layer, the seasonal thermocline and the upper-ocean heat storage rate in the Mediterranean Sea derived from observations, Prog. Oceanogr., 132, 333–352, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.11.004, 2015.
Ivanov, L. I., Backhaus, J. O., Özsoy, E., and Wehde, H.: Convection in the Black Sea during cold winters, J. Marine Syst., 31, 65–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(01)00047-1, 2001.
Izquierdo, P., González Taboada, F., González-Gil, R., Arrontes, J., and Rico, J. M.: Alongshore upwelling modulates the intensity of marine heatwaves in a temperate coastal sea, Sci. Total Environ., 835, 155478, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155478, 2022.
Juza, M., Fernández-Mora, À., and Tintoré, J.: Sub-regional marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea from observations: Long-term surface changes, sub-surface and coastal responses, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 785771, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.785771, 2022.
Kara, A. B., Helber, R. W., Boyer, T. P., and Elsner, J. B.: Mixed layer depth in the Aegean, Marmara, Black and Azov Seas: Part I: General features, J. Marine Syst., 78, S169–S180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.022, 2009.
Kokkini, Z., Mauri, E., Gerin, R., Poulain, P. M., Simoncelli, S., and Notarstefano, G.: On the salinity structure in the South Adriatic as derived from float and glider observations in 2013–2016, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.07.013, 2020.
Konsta, K., Doxa, A., Katsanevakis, S., and Mazaris, A. D.: Projected marine heatwaves over the Mediterranean Sea and the network of marine protected areas: A three-dimensional assessment, Climatic Change, 178, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03860-4, 2025.
Kubryakov, A. A., Mikaelyan, A. S., Stanichny, S. V., and Kubryakova, E. A.: Seasonal stages of chlorophyll-a vertical distribution and its relation to the light conditions in the Black Sea from Bio-Argo measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016790, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016790, 2020.
Lecci, R., Lima, L., Cretì, S., and Jansen, E.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Product User Manual for the Black Sea Physics Reanalysis, BLKSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_007_004, issue 4.0, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/PUM/CMEMS-BLK-PUM-007-004.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024a.
Lecci, R., Drudi, M., Grandi, A., and Clementi, E.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Product User Manual for the Black Sea Physics Reanalysis, MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004, issue 2.4, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/PUM/CMEMS-MED-PUM-006-004.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024b.
Lellouche, J.-M., Greiner, E., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Garric, G., Melet, A., Drévillon, M., Bricaud, C., Hamon, M., Le Galloudec, O., Regnier, C., Candela, T., Testut, C.-E., Gasparin, F., Ruggiero, G., Benkiran, M., Drillet, Y., and Le Traon, P.-Y.: The Copernicus Global
Le Meur, J., Wirth, A., Paladini de Mendoza, F., Miserocchi, S., and Cardin, V.: Intermittent supply of dense water to the deep South Adriatic Pit: An observational study, Front. Mar. Sci., 12, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1516780, 2025.
Li, M., Organelli, E., Serva, F., Bellacicco, M., Landolfi, A., Pisano, A., Marullo, S., Shen, F., Mignot, A., van Gennip, S., and Santoleri, R.: Phytoplankton spring bloom inhibited by marine heatwaves in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109141, 2024.
Lima, L., Peneva, E., Ciliberti, S., Masina, S., Lemieux, B., Storto, A., and Chtirkova, B.: Section 2.6: Ocean heat content in the Black Sea, in: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 4, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 13, s41–s47, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2020.1785097, 2020.
Lima, L., Ciliberti, S. A., Aydoğdu, A., Masina, S., Escudier, R., Cipollone, A., Azevedo, D., Causio, S., Peneva, E., Lecci, R., Clementi, E., Jansen, E., Ilicak, M., Cretì, S., Stefanizzi, L., Palermo, F., and Coppini, G.: Climate signals in the Black Sea from a multidecadal eddy-resolving reanalysis, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 710973, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.710973, 2021.
Lima, L., Azevedo, D., Ilicak, M., Jansen, E., Costa, F., Causio, S., Cretí, S., and Clementi, E.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Quality Information Document for the Black Sea Physics Reanalysis, BLKSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_007_004, issue 5.0, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/QUID/CMEMS-BLK-QUID-007-004.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024.
Lima, L., Azevedo, D., Ilicak, M., Jansen, E., Costa, F., Sozer, A., Miraglio, P., and Clementi, E.: Advances in monitoring the Black Sea: a new regional multidecadal ocean reanalysis at
López-Jurado, J.-L., González-Pola, C., and Vélez-Belchi, P.: Observation of an abrupt disruption of the long-term warming trend at the Balearic Sea, western Mediterranean Sea, in summer 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024430, 2005.
Ma, X. and Chen, G.: Marine heatwaves are shaping the vertical structure of phytoplankton in the global ocean, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 715, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02718-y, 2025.
Macias, J. C., Avila Zaragozá, P., Karakassis, I., Sanchez-Jerez, P., Massa, F., Fezzardi, D., Yücel Gier, G., Franičević, V., Borg, J. A., Chapela Pérez, R. M., Tomassetti, P., Angel, D. L., Marino, G., Nhhala, H., Hamza, H., Carmignac, C., and Fourdain, L.: Allocated zones for aquaculture: A guide for the establishment of coastal zones dedicated to aquaculture in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean: Studies and Reviews, 97, 1–90, FAO, https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/5c494a74-d1f9-4f9d-9b26-9ff8f3b0f634/content (last access: 21 January 2026), 2019.
Martínez, J., Leonelli, F. E., García-Ladona, E., Garrabou, J., Kersting, D. K., Bensoussan, N., and Pisano, A.: Evolution of marine heatwaves in warming seas: The Mediterranean Sea case study, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1193164, 2023.
Marullo, S., Serva, F., Iacono, R., Napolitano, E., di Sarra, A., Meloni, D., Monteleone, F., Sferlazzo, D., De Silvestri, L., and de Toma, V.: Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 114041, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad02ae, 2023.
McAdam, R., Masina, S., and Gualdi, S.: Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 225, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00892-5, 2023.
Mignot, A., von Schuckmann, K., Landschützer, P., Gasparin, F., van Gennip, S., Perruche, C., Lamouroux, J., and Amm, T.: Decrease in air-sea CO2 fluxes caused by persistent marine heatwaves, Nat. Commun., 13, 4300, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31983-0, 2022.
Mohamed, B., Ibrahim, O., and Nagy, H.: Sea Surface temperature variability and marine heatwaves in the Black Sea, Remote Sens., 14, 2383, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102383, 2022.
Nenciu, M., Ni?ă, V., Lazăr, L., Spînu, A., and Vlăsceanu-Mateescu, E.: Fostering the Development of Western Black Sea Aquaculture: A Scientific Case Study for Finfish Cage Farming Allocated Zone Designation, Fishes, 8, 104, https://doi.org/10.3390/fishes8020104, 2023.
Oliver, E. C. J.: marineHeatWaves, GitHub [code], https://github.com/ecjoliver/marineHeatWaves (last access: 1 April 2026), 2016.
Oliver, E. C. J., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. V., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Scannell, H. A., Straub, S. C., and Wernberg, T.: Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century, Nat. Commun., 9, 1324, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9, 2018.
Özsoy, E. and Ünlüata, Ü.: Oceanography of the Black Sea: a review of some recent results, Earth-Sci. Rev., 42, 231–272, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(97)81859-4, 1997.
Paladini de Mendoza, F., Schroeder, K., Langone, L., Chiggiato, J., Borghini, M., Giordano, P., Verazzo, G., and Miserocchi, S.: Deep-water hydrodynamic observations of two moorings sites on the continental slope of the southern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5617–5635, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5617-2022, 2022.
Parras-Berrocal, I. M., Vázquez, R., Cabos, W., Sein, D. V., Álvarez, O., Bruno, M., and Izquierdo, A.: Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean under a global warming scenario, Ocean Sci., 19, 941–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023, 2023.
Pastor, F., Paredes-Fortuny, L., and Khodayar, S.: Mediterranean marine heatwaves intensify in the presence of concurrent atmospheric heatwaves, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 797, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01982-8, 2024.
Pisano, A., Nardelli, B. B., Tronconi, C., and Santoleri, R.: The new Mediterranean optimally interpolated pathfinder AVHRR SST dataset (1982–2012), Remote Sens. Environ., 176, 107–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.01.019, 2016.
Pisano, A., Fanelli, C., Massi, A., Tronconi, C., Cesarini, C., La Padula, F., Buongiorno Nardelli, B., and Ciani, D.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Quality Information Document for the Black Sea – High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed, SST_BS_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_022, Issue 4.0, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/QUID/CMEMS-SST-QUID-010-021-022-041-042.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024a.
Pisano, A., Fanelli, C., Massi, A., Tronconi, C., Cesarini, C., La Padula, F., Buongiorno Nardelli, B., and Ciani, D.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Product User Manual for the Black Sea - High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed, SST_BS_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_022, Issue 4.0, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/PUM/CMEMS-SST-PUM-010-021-022-041-042.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024b.
Pisano, A., Fanelli, C., Massi, A., Tronconi, C., Cesarini, C., La Padula, F., Buongiorno Nardelli, B., and Ciani, D.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Quality Information Document for the Mediterranean Sea – High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed, SST_MED_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_021, Issue 4.0, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/QUID/CMEMS-SST-QUID-010-021-022-041-042.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024c.
Pisano, A., Fanelli, C., Massi, A., Tronconi, C., Cesarini, C., La Padula, F., Buongiorno Nardelli, B., and Ciani, D.: EU Copernicus Marine Service Product User Manual for the Mediterranean Sea - High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed, SST_MED_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_021, Issue 4.0, Mercator Ocean International, https://documentation.marine.copernicus.eu/PUM/CMEMS-SST-PUM-010-021-022-041-042.pdf (last access: 31 October 2025), 2024d.
Rosselló, P., Pascual, A., and Combes, V.: Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: A comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1168368, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1168368, 2023.
Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Moore, P. J., Rodrigues, R. R., Scannell, H. A., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwave events, Sci. Rep., 10, 19359, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75445-3, 2020.
Simoncelli, S. and Pinardi, N.: Water mass formation processes in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 30 years, in: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 2, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 11, s13–s16, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2018.1489208, 2018.
Smith, K. E., Burrows, M. T., Hobday, A. J., King, N. G., Moore, P. J., Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M. S., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Biological impacts of marine heatwaves, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 15, 119–145, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-121437, 2023.
Stanev, E. V., Peneva, E., and Chtirkova, B.: Climate change and regional ocean water mass disappearance: Case of the Black Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 4803–4819, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015076, 2019.
Su, S., Fu, Y.-X., Sun, W., and Dong, J.: Marine heatwaves and cold spells accompanied by mesoscale eddies globally, Remote Sens., 17, 2468, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17142468, 2025.
Sun, D., Li, F., Jing, Z., Hu, S., and Zhang, B.: Frequent marine heatwaves hidden below the surface of the global ocean, Nat. Geosci., 16, 1099–1104, 2023.
Tan, H. J., Cai, R. S., and Wu, R. G.: Summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: Trend, variability and possible causes, Advances in Climate Change Research, 13, 323–332, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.003, 2022.
Wang, Y. and Zhou, Y.: Seasonal dynamics of global marine heatwaves over the last four decades, Front. Mar. Sci., 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1406416, 2024.
Short summary
As climate change intensifies, marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, threaten ecosystems and communities. This study analyzes MHWs in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, examining surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the upper 0–40 m to capture subsurface warming. Findings highlight the need to monitor both surface and subsurface conditions for a comprehensive understanding and better management considering ongoing warming trends in both seas.
As climate change intensifies, marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of unusually high ocean...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint