Articles | Volume 6-osr9
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-6-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-6-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
30 Sep 2025
| OSR9 | Chapter 2.3
| 30 Sep 2025 | OSR9 | Chapter 2.3
A new conceptual framework for assessing the physical state of the Baltic Sea
Urmas Raudsepp
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia
Ilja Maljutenko
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia
Priidik Lagemaa
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia
Karina von Schuckmann
Mercator Ocean International, 2 Av. de l'Aérodrome de Montaudran, 31400 Toulouse, France
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Urmas Raudsepp, Ulvi Ahmadov, Ilja Maljutenko, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Mariliis Kõuts, and Priidik Lagemaa
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-7, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
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Over the past 30 years, the Baltic Sea’s surface mixed layer has changed unevenly: it is shoaling in the southwest due to warming and increased stratification, while deepening in the northeast as ice loss allows more winter mixing. These shifts affect marine ecosystems—shallower mixing in the south limits oxygen supply to deep waters, worsening hypoxia, while deeper mixing in the north may enhance spring algal blooms. Climate impacts in the Baltic are regionally diverse.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Sander Rikka, Aarne Männik, Siim Pärt, Priidik Lagemaa, Victor Alari, Kaimo Vahter, and Rivo Uiboupin
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-8, 2025
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The study identified key extreme metocean conditions relevant for Floating Storage and Regasification Unit design on Estonia’s coast, using statistical approaches like GPD and GEV to estimate return values. These thresholds inform infrastructure safety margins. The analysis was extended across the Baltic Sea using harmonized methods, enabling consistent risk assessment, cross-border planning, and climate-resilient design for major maritime infrastructure sites.
Laura Tuomi, Milla Johansson, Andrew Twelves, Mika Rantanen, Priidik Lagemaa, Hedi Kanarik, Jani Särkkä, Urmas Raudsepp, and Antti Westerlund
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-12, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
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A record low sea level of -153 cm, 34 cm below the previous minimum, was measured in the Bothnian Bay in November 2024. This extreme event was caused by a strong and long-lasting windstorm that followed an unusual track. The BAL MFC NRT physical forecast system was able to accurately predict this sea level event 3–4 days in advance. However, forecasts with longer lead times failed to predict the record low sea level, although they did indicate a significant drop in sea levels during the storm.
Jüri Elken, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, Rivo Uiboupin, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, 2024
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Baltic deep water is generally warmer than surface water during winter when district heating is required. Depending on the location, depth, and oceanographic situation, bottom water of Tallinn Bay can be used as an energy source for seawater heat pumps until the end of February, covering the major time interval when heating is needed. Episodically, there are colder-water events when seawater heat extraction has to be complemented by other sources of heating energy.
Anja Lindenthal, Claudia Hinrichs, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Tim Kruschke, Priidik Lagemaa, Eefke M. van der Lee, Ilja Maljutenko, Helen E. Morrison, Tabea R. Panteleit, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, 2024
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In 2022, large parts of the Baltic Sea experienced the third-warmest to warmest summer and autumn temperatures since 1997 and several marine heatwaves (MHWs). Using remote sensing, reanalysis, and in situ data, this study characterizes regional differences in MHW properties in the Baltic Sea in 2022. Furthermore, it presents an analysis of long-term trends and the relationship between atmospheric warming and MHW occurrences, including their propagation into deeper layers.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Rivo Uiboupin, and Priidik Lagemaa
State Planet, 1-osr7, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, 2023
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The freshwater content in the Baltic Sea has wide sub-regional variability characterized by the local climate dynamics. The total freshwater content trend is negative due to the recent increased inflows of saltwater, but there are also regions where the increase in runoff and decrease in ice content have led to an increase in the freshwater content.
Urmas Raudsepp and Ilja Maljutenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 535–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-535-2022, 2022
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A model's ability to reproduce the state of a simulated object is always a subject of discussion. A new method for the multivariate assessment of numerical model skills uses the K-means algorithm for clustering model errors. All available data that fall into the model domain and simulation period are incorporated into the skill assessment. The clustered errors are used for spatial and temporal analysis of the model accuracy. The method can be applied to different types of geoscientific models.
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Lasse Johansson, Magda Wilewska-Bien, Lena Granhag, Erik Ytreberg, K. Martin Eriksson, Daniel Yngsell, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, Kerstin Magnusson, Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Hulda Winnes, and Jana Moldanova
Ocean Sci., 17, 699–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, 2021
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This modelling study describes a methodology for describing pollutant discharges from ships to the sea. The pilot area used is the Baltic Sea area and discharges of bilge, ballast, sewage, wash water as well as stern tube oil are reported for the year 2012. This work also reports the release of SOx scrubber effluents. This technique may be used by ships to comply with tight sulfur limits inside Emission Control Areas, but it also introduces a new pollutant stream from ships to the sea.
Lasse Johansson, Erik Ytreberg, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Erik Fridell, K. Martin Eriksson, Maria Lagerström, Ilja Maljutenko, Urmas Raudsepp, Vivian Fischer, and Eva Roth
Ocean Sci., 16, 1143–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, 2020
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Very little is currently known about the activities and emissions of private leisure boats. To change this, a new model was created (BEAM). The model was used for the Baltic Sea to estimate leisure boat emissions, also considering antifouling paint leach. When compared to commercial shipping, the modeled leisure boat emissions were seen to be surprisingly large for some pollutant species, and these emissions were heavily concentrated on coastal inhabited areas during summer and early autumn.
Karina von Schuckmann, Flora Gues, Lorena Moreira, Aurélien Liné, and Álvaro de Pascual Collar
State Planet, 6-osr9, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-2-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-2-2025, 2025
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In 2024, global ocean heat content, sea surface temperatures, and sea level rise reached record levels. The triple planetary crisis affects all oceans, where pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate change pressure marine systems, threatening key species, ecosystems, and the ocean’s role in climate stability. This ocean narrative calls for reinforced ocean observing systems, improved uncertainties, and robust science-based information for ocean protection policies and actions.
Karina von Schuckmann, Flora Gues, Lorena Moreira, Aurélien Liné, and Álvaro de Pascual Collar
State Planet, 6-osr9, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-3-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-3-2025, 2025
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The northeastern Atlantic and adjacent seas are warming and acidifying at rates exceeding the global average, with rising sea levels and record severe marine heatwaves. These changes threaten marine ecosystems, biodiversity, cultural heritage, and key economic sectors that depend on a healthy ocean. This ocean narrative emphasizes the importance of regional ocean indicators, tailored local action, and stronger knowledge transfer between science and policy to support informed decisions.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ulvi Ahmadov, Ilja Maljutenko, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Mariliis Kõuts, and Priidik Lagemaa
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-7, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
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Over the past 30 years, the Baltic Sea’s surface mixed layer has changed unevenly: it is shoaling in the southwest due to warming and increased stratification, while deepening in the northeast as ice loss allows more winter mixing. These shifts affect marine ecosystems—shallower mixing in the south limits oxygen supply to deep waters, worsening hypoxia, while deeper mixing in the north may enhance spring algal blooms. Climate impacts in the Baltic are regionally diverse.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Sander Rikka, Aarne Männik, Siim Pärt, Priidik Lagemaa, Victor Alari, Kaimo Vahter, and Rivo Uiboupin
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-8, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
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The study identified key extreme metocean conditions relevant for Floating Storage and Regasification Unit design on Estonia’s coast, using statistical approaches like GPD and GEV to estimate return values. These thresholds inform infrastructure safety margins. The analysis was extended across the Baltic Sea using harmonized methods, enabling consistent risk assessment, cross-border planning, and climate-resilient design for major maritime infrastructure sites.
Laura Tuomi, Milla Johansson, Andrew Twelves, Mika Rantanen, Priidik Lagemaa, Hedi Kanarik, Jani Särkkä, Urmas Raudsepp, and Antti Westerlund
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-12, 2025
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
A record low sea level of -153 cm, 34 cm below the previous minimum, was measured in the Bothnian Bay in November 2024. This extreme event was caused by a strong and long-lasting windstorm that followed an unusual track. The BAL MFC NRT physical forecast system was able to accurately predict this sea level event 3–4 days in advance. However, forecasts with longer lead times failed to predict the record low sea level, although they did indicate a significant drop in sea levels during the storm.
Amirhossein Barzandeh, Matjaž Ličer, Marko Rus, Matej Kristan, Ilja Maljutenko, Jüri Elken, Priidik Lagemaa, and Rivo Uiboupin
Ocean Sci., 21, 1315–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1315-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1315-2025, 2025
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We evaluated a deep-learning model, HIDRA2, for predicting sea levels along the Estonian coast and compared it to traditional numerical models. HIDRA2 performed better overall, offering faster forecasts and valuable uncertainty estimates using ensemble predictions.
Marina Lévy, Karina von Schuckmann, Patrick Vincent, Bruno Blanke, Joachim Claudet, Patrice Guillotreau, Audrey Hasson, Claire Jolly, Yunne Shin, Olivier Thébaud, Adrien Vincent, and Pierre Bahurel
State Planet, 6-osr9, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-1-2025, 2025
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The Ocean is vital to humanity, but humans are putting it at risk. The Starfish Barometer is a new yearly civic rendezvous that shows how people and the Ocean affect each other. Using science-based facts, it highlights major trends in ocean health, the pressures it faces, the harm to people, and current protection efforts and opportunities. The goal is to raise awareness to secure a better future for the Ocean and humanity.
Jüri Elken, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, Rivo Uiboupin, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Baltic deep water is generally warmer than surface water during winter when district heating is required. Depending on the location, depth, and oceanographic situation, bottom water of Tallinn Bay can be used as an energy source for seawater heat pumps until the end of February, covering the major time interval when heating is needed. Episodically, there are colder-water events when seawater heat extraction has to be complemented by other sources of heating energy.
Anja Lindenthal, Claudia Hinrichs, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Tim Kruschke, Priidik Lagemaa, Eefke M. van der Lee, Ilja Maljutenko, Helen E. Morrison, Tabea R. Panteleit, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, 2024
Short summary
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In 2022, large parts of the Baltic Sea experienced the third-warmest to warmest summer and autumn temperatures since 1997 and several marine heatwaves (MHWs). Using remote sensing, reanalysis, and in situ data, this study characterizes regional differences in MHW properties in the Baltic Sea in 2022. Furthermore, it presents an analysis of long-term trends and the relationship between atmospheric warming and MHW occurrences, including their propagation into deeper layers.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Shakti Singh, Ilja Maljutenko, and Rivo Uiboupin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1701, 2024
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The sea ice statistics study highlights the bias in model estimations compared to satellite data and provides a simple approach to minimise that. During the study period, the model estimates sea ice forming slightly earlier but aligns well with the satellite data for ice season's end. Rapid decrease in the sea ice parameters is observed across the Baltic Sea, especially the ice thickness in the Bothnian Bay sub-basin. These statistics could be crucial for regional adaptation strategies.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Jan Åström, Fredrik Robertsen, Jari Haapala, Arttu Polojärvi, Rivo Uiboupin, and Ilja Maljutenko
The Cryosphere, 18, 2429–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, 2024
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The HiDEM code has been developed for analyzing the fracture and fragmentation of brittle materials and has been extensively applied to glacier calving. Here, we report on the adaptation of the code to sea-ice dynamics and breakup. The code demonstrates the capability to simulate sea-ice dynamics on a 100 km scale with an unprecedented resolution. We argue that codes of this type may become useful for improving forecasts of sea-ice dynamics.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Rivo Uiboupin, and Priidik Lagemaa
State Planet, 1-osr7, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, 2023
Short summary
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The freshwater content in the Baltic Sea has wide sub-regional variability characterized by the local climate dynamics. The total freshwater content trend is negative due to the recent increased inflows of saltwater, but there are also regions where the increase in runoff and decrease in ice content have led to an increase in the freshwater content.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
State Planet, 1-osr7, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, 2023
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Urmas Raudsepp and Ilja Maljutenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 535–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-535-2022, 2022
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A model's ability to reproduce the state of a simulated object is always a subject of discussion. A new method for the multivariate assessment of numerical model skills uses the K-means algorithm for clustering model errors. All available data that fall into the model domain and simulation period are incorporated into the skill assessment. The clustered errors are used for spatial and temporal analysis of the model accuracy. The method can be applied to different types of geoscientific models.
Tuomas Kärnä, Patrik Ljungemyr, Saeed Falahat, Ida Ringgaard, Lars Axell, Vasily Korabel, Jens Murawski, Ilja Maljutenko, Anja Lindenthal, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Svetlana Verjovkina, Ina Lorkowski, Priidik Lagemaa, Jun She, Laura Tuomi, Adam Nord, and Vibeke Huess
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5731–5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, 2021
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We present Nemo-Nordic 2.0, a novel operational marine model for the Baltic Sea. The model covers the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with approximately 1 nmi resolution. We validate the model's performance against sea level, water temperature, and salinity observations, as well as sea ice charts. The skill analysis demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Lasse Johansson, Magda Wilewska-Bien, Lena Granhag, Erik Ytreberg, K. Martin Eriksson, Daniel Yngsell, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, Kerstin Magnusson, Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Hulda Winnes, and Jana Moldanova
Ocean Sci., 17, 699–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, 2021
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This modelling study describes a methodology for describing pollutant discharges from ships to the sea. The pilot area used is the Baltic Sea area and discharges of bilge, ballast, sewage, wash water as well as stern tube oil are reported for the year 2012. This work also reports the release of SOx scrubber effluents. This technique may be used by ships to comply with tight sulfur limits inside Emission Control Areas, but it also introduces a new pollutant stream from ships to the sea.
Mihhail Zujev, Jüri Elken, and Priidik Lagemaa
Ocean Sci., 17, 91–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-91-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-91-2021, 2021
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The proposed method of data assimilation is capable of effectively correcting basin-scale mismatch of oceanographic models when the domain is under nearly coherent external forcing. The method uses basin-scale EOF modes, calculated from the long-term model statistics. These modes are used to reconstruct gridded fields from point observations, which are further fed to the model using relaxation. Tests with sea surface temperature and salinity in the NE Baltic Sea were successful.
Lasse Johansson, Erik Ytreberg, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Erik Fridell, K. Martin Eriksson, Maria Lagerström, Ilja Maljutenko, Urmas Raudsepp, Vivian Fischer, and Eva Roth
Ocean Sci., 16, 1143–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, 2020
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Very little is currently known about the activities and emissions of private leisure boats. To change this, a new model was created (BEAM). The model was used for the Baltic Sea to estimate leisure boat emissions, also considering antifouling paint leach. When compared to commercial shipping, the modeled leisure boat emissions were seen to be surprisingly large for some pollutant species, and these emissions were heavily concentrated on coastal inhabited areas during summer and early autumn.
Cited articles
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Short summary
Over the past 3 decades, the Baltic Sea has warmed and become saltier, reflecting broader atmospheric trends. Heat content changes are mainly driven by subsurface temperature variations in the upper 100 m, influenced by air temperature, evaporation, and wind stress. Freshwater content changes are largely controlled by salinity shifts in the halocline (40–120 m), with key drivers being saline inflows, precipitation, and zonal wind stress.
Over the past 3 decades, the Baltic Sea has warmed and become saltier, reflecting broader...
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