Articles | Volume 7-osr10
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-6-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-6-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
30 Sep 2026
| OSR10 | Chapter 2.3
| 30 Sep 2026 | OSR10 | Chapter 2.3
Freshening of the Barents Sea during the recent decade and its impact on the outflow of dense waters
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Vidar S. Lien
Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway
Sourav Chatterjee
National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Goa, India
Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
Saradhy Surendran
Nansen Environmental Research Center, Cochin, India
Antonio Bonaduce
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Laurent Bertino
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Closing the sea‑level budget on annual and longer time scales is a cornerstone of physical oceanography because sea‑level rise is one of the best indicators of climate change, and a closed budget shows we have identified and quantified all major drivers. We examined it from 1993 to 2022, finding an accelerated rise that matched ice melt and warm water until 2015. Afterwards an unexplained gap appears. Better deep‑ocean observations and refined gravity processing are needed to close the budget.
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Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
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Vidar S. Lien and Roshin P. Raj
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-13, 2022
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Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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Alejandro Blazquez, Benoit Meyssignac, Robin Fraudeau, Michael Ablain, Jonathan Bamber, Antonio Bonaduce, Marie Bouih, Anny Cazenave, Thorben Döhne, Ines Dussaillant, Ramiro Ferrari, Martin Horwath, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Hugo Lecomte, Stephanie Leroux, William Llovel, Daniele Melini, Erwan Oulhen, Thierry Penduff, Roshin P. Raj, Giorgio Spada, Marius Schlaak, Papasarafianou Stamatia, Andrea Storto, Chunxue Yang, and Sarah Connors
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-627, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-627, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Closing the sea‑level budget on annual and longer time scales is a cornerstone of physical oceanography because sea‑level rise is one of the best indicators of climate change, and a closed budget shows we have identified and quantified all major drivers. We examined it from 1993 to 2022, finding an accelerated rise that matched ice melt and warm water until 2015. Afterwards an unexplained gap appears. Better deep‑ocean observations and refined gravity processing are needed to close the budget.
Silvana Gonzalez, Mari F. Jensen, Ingrid A. Johnsen, Randi Ingvaldsen, Jon Albretsen, Lars Asplin, Anne Sandvik, Vidar S. Lien, Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo, and Anne Britt Sandø
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-2, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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Marine heatwaves occurrence is increasing, especially in northern oceans. In summer 2025, western/central Norway had the most intense event on record, with sea temperatures up to 22 °C. This event was shallow and developed quickly. It was mainly driven by unusual weather: strong solar radiation, weak winds, warm air, and persistent high pressure over Scandinavia. The occurrence of these rapid-forming events has important implications for predictability and adaptation.
Achref Othmani, Annette Samuelsen, Jiping Xie, Laurent Bertino, Fabio Mangini, and Roshin Pappukutty Raj
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1520, 2026
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We developed a high-resolution (6–10 km) HYCOM-CICE configuration to better understand ocean and sea ice conditions in the Arctic and North Atlantic from 2009 to 2019. By comparing the model with available datasets, we found it reliably captures major patterns and seasonal changes. This can support forecasting, helping improve environmental monitoring and decision-making in regions sensitive to climate change.
Solène Jousset, Sandrine Mulet, Eric Greiner, John Wilkin, Lien Vidar, Léon Chafik, Roshin Raj, Antonio Bonaduce, Nicolas Picot, and Gérald Dibarboure
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2285–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2285-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2285-2026, 2026
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Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
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Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Ed Blockley, and Einar Ólason
State Planet, 5-opsr, 14, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-14-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-14-2025, 2025
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Matthew J. Martin, Ibrahim Hoteit, Laurent Bertino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, 2025
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Observations of the ocean from satellites and platforms in the ocean are combined with information from computer models to produce predictions of how the ocean temperature, salinity, and currents will evolve over the coming days and weeks and to describe how the ocean has evolved in the past. This paper summarises the methods used to produce these ocean forecasts at various centres around the world and outlines the practical considerations for implementing such forecasting systems.
Franck Eitel Kemgang Ghomsi, Muharrem Hilmi Erkoç, Roshin P. Raj, Atinç Pirti, Antonio Bonaduce, Babatunde J. Abiodun, and Julienne Stroeve
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-M-6-2025, 393–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-M-6-2025-393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-M-6-2025-393-2025, 2025
Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
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José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
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Simon Driscoll, Alberto Carrassi, Julien Brajard, Laurent Bertino, Einar Ólason, Marc Bocquet, and Amos Lawless
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, 2024
Preprint archived
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Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
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State Planet, 4-osr8, 8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-8-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-8-2024, 2024
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Yumeng Chen, Polly Smith, Alberto Carrassi, Ivo Pasmans, Laurent Bertino, Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 18, 2381–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, 2024
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Cyril Palerme, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Laurent Bertino, and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 18, 2161–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, 2024
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Sea ice forecasts are operationally produced using physically based models, but these forecasts are often not accurate enough for maritime operations. In this study, we developed a statistical correction technique using machine learning in order to improve the skill of short-term (up to 10 d) sea ice concentration forecasts produced by the TOPAZ4 model. This technique allows for the reduction of errors from the TOPAZ4 sea ice concentration forecasts by 41 % on average.
Marina Durán Moro, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Thomas Lavergne, Laurent Bertino, Yvonne Gusdal, Silje Christine Iversen, and Jozef Rusin
The Cryosphere, 18, 1597–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1597-2024, 2024
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Individual satellite passes instead of daily means of sea ice concentration are used to correct the sea ice model forecast in the Barents Sea. The use of passes provides a significantly larger improvement of the forecasts even after a 7 d period due to the more precise information on temporal and spatial variability contained in the passes. One major advantage of the use of satellite passes is that there is no need to wait for the daily mean availability in order to update the forecast.
Marta Umbert, Eva De Andrés, Maria Sánchez, Carolina Gabarró, Nina Hoareau, Veronica González-Gambau, Aina García-Espriu, Estrella Olmedo, Roshin P. Raj, Jiping Xie, and Rafael Catany
Ocean Sci., 20, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-279-2024, 2024
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Satellite retrievals of sea surface salinity (SSS) offer insights into freshwater changes in the Arctic Ocean. This study evaluates freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre using SMOS and reanalysis data, revealing underestimation with reanalysis alone. Incorporating satellite SSS measurements improves freshwater content estimation, especially near ice-melting areas. Adding remotely sensed salinity aids in monitoring Arctic freshwater content and in understanding its impact on global climate.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Sheila Kirkwood, Evgenia Belova, Peter Voelger, Sourav Chatterjee, and Karathazhiyath Satheesan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4215–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4215-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4215-2023, 2023
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We compared 2 years of wind measurements by the Aeolus satellite with winds from two wind-profiler radars in Arctic Sweden and coastal Antarctica. Biases are similar in magnitude to results from other locations. They are smaller than in earlier studies due to more comparison points and improved criteria for data rejection. On the other hand, the standard deviation is somewhat higher because of degradation of the Aeolus lidar.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Jiping Xie, Roshin P. Raj, Laurent Bertino, Justino Martínez, Carolina Gabarró, and Rafael Catany
Ocean Sci., 19, 269–287, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-269-2023, 2023
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Sea ice melt, together with other freshwater sources, has effects on the Arctic environment. Sea surface salinity (SSS) plays a key role in representing water mixing. Recently the satellite SSS from SMOS was developed in the Arctic region. In this study, we first evaluate the impact of assimilating these satellite data in an Arctic reanalysis system. It shows that SSS errors are reduced by 10–50 % depending on areas, encouraging its use in a long-time reanalysis to monitor the Arctic water cycle.
Vidar S. Lien, Angelika H. H. Renner, Mari S. Myksvoll, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jeremy Cook, Helene Spurkeland, and Ronald Toppe
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-12, 2022
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The One Ocean Expedition, a part of the United Nations Ocean Decade, is a sailing voyage where a traditional tall ship equipped with state-of-the-art ocean observation technology is circumnavigating the globe with a crew consisting of students, scientists, trainees and professionals. The focus for the expedition is awareness raising and education through showcasing ocean science using a traditional tall ship as a platform.
Vidar S. Lien and Roshin P. Raj
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-13, 2022
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Dense overflow water entering the North Atlantic from the Nordic Seas forms the northern limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The formation of dense water in the Nordic Seas is sensitive to the properties of the northward flowing Atlantic Water entering the Nordic Seas to the south. We find that the unprecedented freshwater anomaly in the North Atlantic recent years caused the dense water formed in the Barents Sea to have the lowest density in recorded history.
Fabio Mangini, Léon Chafik, Antonio Bonaduce, Laurent Bertino, and Jan Even Ø. Nilsen
Ocean Sci., 18, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-331-2022, 2022
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We validate the recent ALES-reprocessed coastal satellite altimetry dataset along the Norwegian coast between 2003 and 2018. We find that coastal altimetry and conventional altimetry products perform similarly along the Norwegian coast. However, the agreement with tide gauges slightly increases in terms of trends when we use the ALES coastal altimetry data. We then use the ALES dataset and hydrographic stations to explore the steric contribution to the Norwegian sea-level anomaly.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Justino Martínez, Carolina Gabarró, Antonio Turiel, Verónica González-Gambau, Marta Umbert, Nina Hoareau, Cristina González-Haro, Estrella Olmedo, Manuel Arias, Rafael Catany, Laurent Bertino, Roshin P. Raj, Jiping Xie, Roberto Sabia, and Diego Fernández
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 307–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-307-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-307-2022, 2022
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Measuring salinity from space is challenging since the sensitivity of the brightness temperature to sea surface salinity is low, but the retrieval of SSS in cold waters is even more challenging. In 2019, the ESA launched a specific initiative called Arctic+Salinity to produce an enhanced Arctic SSS product with better quality and resolution than the available products. This paper presents the methodologies used to produce the new enhanced Arctic SMOS SSS product.
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Short summary
Dense water formed and exiting from the Barents Sea constitutes an important part of the global ocean circulation. Considering the significant impact of salinity changes in dense water formation, we investigate the salinity changes in the Barents Sea during the past 3 decades. Our results highlight the recent freshening and its drivers in the northern and southern Barents Sea and show its impact on the density of the waters exiting the Barents Sea.
Dense water formed and exiting from the Barents Sea constitutes an important part of the global...
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