Articles | Volume 5-opsr
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-17-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-17-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 6.3
| 02 Jun 2025 | OPSR | Chapter 6.3
A description of model intercomparison processes and techniques for ocean forecasting
Fabrice Hernandez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire d'Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) et Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CNES, Toulouse, France
Marcos Garcia Sotillo
NOW Systems (Nologin Oceanic Weather Systems), Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Angélique Melet
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
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Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Marie Drevillon, and Fabrice Hernandez
State Planet, 5-opsr, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, 2025
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Operational forecasting systems require best practices for assessing the quality of ocean products. The authors discuss the role of the observing network in performing validation of ocean models, identifying current gaps but also emphasizing the need of new metrics. An analysis on the level of maturity of validation processes from global to regional systems is provided. A rich variety of approaches exists. An example is provided of how the Copernicus Marine Service organizes product quality information.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
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Djoirka Minto Dimoune, Florence Birol, Fabrice Hernandez, Fabien Léger, and Moacyr Araujo
Ocean Sci., 19, 251–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-251-2023, 2023
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Altimeter-derived currents are used here to revisit the seasonal and interannual variability of all surface currents involved in the western tropical Atlantic circulation. A new approach based on the calculation of the current strengths and core positions is used to investigate the relationship between the currents, the remote wind variability, and the tropical Atlantic modes. The results show relationships at the seasonal and interannual timescale depending on the location of the currents.
Liying Wan, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Mike Bell, Yann Drillet, Roland Aznar, and Stefania Ciliberti
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Operating the ocean value chain requires the implementation of steps that must work systematically and automatically to generate ocean predictions and deliver this information. The paper illustrates the main challenges foreseen by operational chains in integrating complex numerical frameworks from the global to coastal scale and discusses existing tools that facilitate orchestration, including examples of existing systems and their capacity to provide high-quality and timely ocean forecasts.
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Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, which can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Marie Drevillon, and Fabrice Hernandez
State Planet, 5-opsr, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, 2025
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Operational forecasting systems require best practices for assessing the quality of ocean products. The authors discuss the role of the observing network in performing validation of ocean models, identifying current gaps but also emphasizing the need of new metrics. An analysis on the level of maturity of validation processes from global to regional systems is provided. A rich variety of approaches exists. An example is provided of how the Copernicus Marine Service organizes product quality information.
Joanna Staneva, Angelique Melet, Jennifer Veitch, and Pascal Matte
State Planet, 5-opsr, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-4-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-4-2025, 2025
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Coastal services are essential to society, requiring accurate prediction of ocean variables in complex, high-resolution environments. This paper outlines key aspects of coastal modelling and emphasizes the importance of capturing nonlinear interactions and feedbacks. Advances in coastal modelling, observational integration, and predictive skills are highlighted as being vital for supporting sustainability and strengthening climate resilience.
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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Accurate short-term wave forecasts are key for coastal activities. These forecasts rely on wind and currents as forcing, which in this work were both enhanced using neural networks (NNs) trained with satellite and radar data. Tested at three European sites, the NN-corrected winds were 35 % more accurate, and currents also improved. This led to improved IBI wave model predictions of wave height and period by 10 % and 17 %, respectively; even correcting under extreme events.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
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Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
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The Iberia–Biscay–Ireland region in the North Atlantic has diverse ocean currents impacting upper and deeper layers. These currents are vital for heat transport, species dispersion, and sediment and pollutant movement. Monitoring them is crucial for informed decision-making in ocean-related activities, including the blue economy sector. This study introduces an indicator to track these currents, covering main ones like the Azores, Canary, Portugal, and poleward slope currents.
Álvaro de Pascual-Collar, Roland Aznar, Bruno Levier, and Marcos García-Sotillo
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The article comprises the analysis of the ocean heat content in the northeastern Atlantic Iberian–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) region. The variability of ocean heat content is studied, and results are linked with the variability of the main water masses found in the region. Results show how the coupled interannual variability of water masses accounts for an important part of the total ocean heat content variability in the region.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Stéphane Law-Chune, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf
Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023
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Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and can drive coastal marine hazards such as coastal flooding. In this paper, by using numerical modeling along the European Atlantic coastline, we assess how present and future wave characteristics are impacted by sea level changes. For example, at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, extreme significant wave heights are higher by up to +40 % due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise.
Djoirka Minto Dimoune, Florence Birol, Fabrice Hernandez, Fabien Léger, and Moacyr Araujo
Ocean Sci., 19, 251–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-251-2023, 2023
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Altimeter-derived currents are used here to revisit the seasonal and interannual variability of all surface currents involved in the western tropical Atlantic circulation. A new approach based on the calculation of the current strengths and core positions is used to investigate the relationship between the currents, the remote wind variability, and the tropical Atlantic modes. The results show relationships at the seasonal and interannual timescale depending on the location of the currents.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Guillaume Reffray, Aurore Voldoire, and Angélique Melet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022
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Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Projections of coastal sea level changes are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and have significantly developed in recent years. In this paper, the objective is to provide high-resolution (6 km) projections of sea level changes in the northeastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe. For that purpose, a regional model is used to refine existing coarse global projections.
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Short summary
An historical review over the last 3 decades on intercomparison projects of ocean numerical reanalysis or forecast is first proposed. From this, main issues and lessons learned are discussed in order to propose an overview of best practices and key considerations to facilitate intercomparison activities in operational oceanography.
An historical review over the last 3 decades on intercomparison projects of ocean numerical...
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