Volume 5-opsr, 2025 | Ocean prediction: present status and state of the art (OPSR)

Editor(s): Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, and Swadhin Behera

Ocean prediction services have been improving and evolving during the last decades, and today are a crucial tool for decision-making in multiple socio-economic sectors, being the backbone of applications to improve marine safety, disaster risk reduction, coastal zone management, and many others. This report describes the actual status of ocean forecasting, detailing its degree of development in the different regions of the world and the most recent advances in all the relevant specific aspects associated with the technology, such as artificial intelligence, and cloud computing. This publication is the result of a coordinated work of a group of experts integrated in the so-called Ocean Forecasting Co-Design, integrated in the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Center, a cross-cutting collaborative centre of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. It has been prepared in close collaboration with several Decade Programmes that are closely linked to OceanPrediction DCC, such as Foresea, OceanPractices, DITTO, GEMS-ocean, and Coastpredict. The result is a complete picture of the situation of ocean prediction that demonstrates its relevance and will foster future developments to overcome the present-day limitations.

How to cite. Álvarez Fanjul, E., Ciliberti, S. A., Pearlman, J., Wilmer-Becker, K., and Behera, S. (Eds.): Ocean prediction: present status and state of the art (OPSR), Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 5-opsr, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr, 2025.

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Volume 5-opsr, 2025 | Ocean prediction: present status and state of the art (OPSR)

Editor(s): Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, and Swadhin Behera

Ocean prediction services have been improving and evolving during the last decades, and today are a crucial tool for decision-making in multiple socio-economic sectors, being the backbone of applications to improve marine safety, disaster risk reduction, coastal zone management, and many others. This report describes the actual status of ocean forecasting, detailing its degree of development in the different regions of the world and the most recent advances in all the relevant specific aspects associated with the technology, such as artificial intelligence, and cloud computing. This publication is the result of a coordinated work of a group of experts integrated in the so-called Ocean Forecasting Co-Design, integrated in the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Center, a cross-cutting collaborative centre of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. It has been prepared in close collaboration with several Decade Programmes that are closely linked to OceanPrediction DCC, such as Foresea, OceanPractices, DITTO, GEMS-ocean, and Coastpredict. The result is a complete picture of the situation of ocean prediction that demonstrates its relevance and will foster future developments to overcome the present-day limitations.

How to cite. Álvarez Fanjul, E., Ciliberti, S. A., Pearlman, J., Wilmer-Becker, K., and Behera, S. (Eds.): Ocean prediction: present status and state of the art (OPSR), Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 5-opsr, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr, 2025.

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Chapter 1: Introduction
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 1.1
OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Center: connecting the world around ocean forecasting
Enrique Álvarez Fanjul and Pierre Bahurel
State Planet, 5-opsr, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-1-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 2: Predicting at different scales
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 2.1
Core services: an introduction to global ocean forecasting
Yann Drillet, Matthew Martin, Yosuke Fujii, Eric Chassignet, and Stefania Ciliberti
State Planet, 5-opsr, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-2-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-2-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 2.2
Ocean forecasting at the regional scale: actual status
Marina Tonani, Eric Chassignet, Mauro Cirano, Yasumasa Miyazawa, and Begoña Pérez Gómez
State Planet, 5-opsr, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-3-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-3-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 2.3
Solving coastal dynamics: introduction to high-resolution ocean forecasting services
Joanna Staneva, Angelique Melet, Jennifer Veitch, and Pascal Matte
State Planet, 5-opsr, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-4-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-4-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 3: Operational systems and applications around the globe
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 3.1
A description of existing operational ocean forecasting services around the globe
Mauro Cirano, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Emanuela Clementi, Boris Dewitte, Matias Dinápoli, Ghada El Serafy, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Ivonne Montes, Diego A. Narvaez, Heather Regan, Claudia G. Simionato, Gregory C. Smith, Joanna Staneva, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Pramod Thupaki, Claudia Urbano-Latorre, and Jennifer Veitch
State Planet, 5-opsr, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 3.2
A description of ocean forecasting applications around the globe
Jennifer Veitch, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Fraser Davidson, Ghada el Serafy, Guilherme Franz, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Svitlana Liubartseva, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Heather Regan, and Katerina Spanoudaki
State Planet, 5-opsr, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 4: Connecting with observations for improved forecasts
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 4.1
Connecting ocean observations with prediction
Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Antonio Novellino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-7-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-7-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 4.2
Merging and serving ocean observations: a description of marine data aggregators
Antonio Novellino, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Andy Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-8-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-8-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 4.3
Data assimilation schemes for ocean forecasting: state of the art
Matthew J. Martin, Ibrahim Hoteit, Laurent Bertino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 5: Numerical modelling for predicting blue, green, and white ocean
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 5.1
Numerical models for simulating ocean physics
Michael J. Bell, Andreas Schiller, and Stefania Ciliberti
State Planet, 5-opsr, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-10-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-10-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 5.2
Numerical models for monitoring and forecasting sea level: a short description of present status
Angelique Melet, Begoña Pérez Gómez, and Pascal Matte
State Planet, 5-opsr, 11, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-11-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-11-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 5.3
Numerical models for monitoring and forecasting ocean biogeochemistry: a short description of present status
Gianpiero Cossarini, Andrew Moore, Stefano Ciavatta, and Katja Fennel
State Planet, 5-opsr, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-12-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-12-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 5.4
Numerical models for monitoring and forecasting ocean ecosystems: a short description of the present status
Simone Libralato
State Planet, 5-opsr, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-13-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 5.5
Numerical models for monitoring and forecasting sea ice: a short description of present status
Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Ed Blockley, and Einar Ólason
State Planet, 5-opsr, 14, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-14-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-14-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 6: Building trust in forecasting
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 6.1
An introduction to operational chains in ocean forecasting
Liying Wan, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Mike Bell, Yann Drillet, Roland Aznar, and Stefania Ciliberti
State Planet, 5-opsr, 15, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-15-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-15-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 6.2
A description of validation processes and techniques for ocean forecasting
Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Marie Drevillon, and Fabrice Hernandez
State Planet, 5-opsr, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 6.3
A description of model intercomparison processes and techniques for ocean forecasting
Fabrice Hernandez, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, and Angélique Melet
State Planet, 5-opsr, 17, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-17-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-17-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 7: Representing air–sea–land interactions for improved forecasts
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 7.1
Atmospheric forcing as a driver for ocean forecasting
Andreas Schiller, Simon A. Josey, John Siddorn, and Ibrahim Hoteit
State Planet, 5-opsr, 18, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-18-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-18-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 7.2
The representation of rivers in operational ocean forecasting systems: a review
Pascal Matte, John Wilkin, and Joanna Staneva
State Planet, 5-opsr, 19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-19-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 8: Advanced modelling approaches for ocean forecasting
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 8.1
Towards Earth system modelling: coupled ocean forecasting
Ségolène Berthou, John Siddorn, Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Ibrahim Hoteit
State Planet, 5-opsr, 20, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-20-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-20-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 8.2
Improving accuracy and providing uncertainty estimations: ensemble methodologies for ocean forecasting
Ibrahim Hoteit, Eric Chassignet, and Mike Bell
State Planet, 5-opsr, 21, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-21-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-21-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 8.3
Crafting the Future: Machine learning for ocean forecasting
Patrick Heimbach, Fearghal O'Donncha, Timothy A. Smith, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Alain Arnaud, and Liying Wan
State Planet, 5-opsr, 22, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-22-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-22-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 8.4
Unlocking the power of parallel computing: GPU technologies for ocean forecasting
Andrew R. Porter and Patrick Heimbach
State Planet, 5-opsr, 23, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-23-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-23-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 8.5
Distributed environments for ocean forecasting: the role of cloud computing
Stefania Ciliberti and Gianpaolo Coro
State Planet, 5-opsr, 24, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-24-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-24-2025, 2025
Short summary
Chapter 9: Bridging ocean science and society
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 9.1
End-user applications for ocean forecasting: present status description
Antonio Novellino, Alain Arnaud, Andreas Schiller, and Liying Wan
State Planet, 5-opsr, 25, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-25-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-25-2025, 2025
Short summary
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 9.2
Capacity development for the future of ocean prediction
Lillian Diarra, Romane Zufic, Audrey Hasson, Cécile Thomas-Courcoux, and Enrique Alvarez Fanjul
State Planet, 5-opsr, 26, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-26-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-26-2025, 2025
Short summary
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