Articles | Volume 1-osr7
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
27 Sep 2023
| OSR7 | Chapter 1.2
| 27 Sep 2023 | OSR7 | Chapter 1.2
Evaluation of operational ocean forecasting systems from the perspective of the users and the experts
Stefania A. Ciliberti
Nologin Oceanic Weather Systems, Madrid, Spain
Enrique Alvarez Fanjul
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Jay Pearlman
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Paris, France
Kirsten Wilmer-Becker
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Pierre Bahurel
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Fabrice Ardhuin
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IFREMER, Brest, France
Alain Arnaud
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Mike Bell
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Segolene Berthou
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Laurent Bertino
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Arthur Capet
Operational Directorate Natural Environment (OD Nature), Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Brussels, Belgium
Eric Chassignet
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
Stefano Ciavatta
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Mauro Cirano
Department of Meteorology, Institute of Geosciences, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Gianpiero Cossarini
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Trieste, Italy
Gianpaolo Coro
Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell'Informazione “Alessandro Faedo”, Centro Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Pisa, Italy
Stuart Corney
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Oceans and Cryosphere, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Fraser Davidson
Oceanography Department, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, North Atlantic Fisheries Center, St. John's, NL, Canada
Marie Drevillon
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Yann Drillet
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Renaud Dussurget
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Ghada El Serafy
Unit of Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands
Katja Fennel
Department of Oceanography, Faculty of Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
Marcos Garcia Sotillo
Nologin Oceanic Weather Systems, Madrid, Spain
Patrick Heimbach
Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Fabrice Hernandez
Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD), Marseille, France
Patrick Hogan
NOAA, National Centers for Environment Information, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, Missisipi, USA
Ibrahim Hoteit
Physical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Sudheer Joseph
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Pragathi Nagar, Nizampet, Hyderabad, Telangana 500090, India
Simon Josey
Marine Systems Modelling, National Oceanography Center, Southampton, UK
Pierre-Yves Le Traon
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Simone Libralato
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Trieste, Italy
Marco Mancini
Advanced Scientific Computing Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Pascal Matte
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Québec, QC, Canada
Angelique Melet
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Yasumasa Miyazawa
Application Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
Andrew M. Moore
Physical & Biological Sciences Division,
Ocean Sciences Department Institute of Marine Sciences, Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
Antonio Novellino
ETT – People and Technology, Genoa, Italy
Andrew Porter
Science and Technology Facilities Council, Daresbury Laboratory, Hartree Centre, Daresbury, UK
Heather Regan
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Laia Romero
Lobelia Earth, Barcelona, Spain
Andreas Schiller
CSIRO Environment, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
John Siddorn
Data, Science and Technology, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Joanna Staneva
Institute for Coastal Systems, Helmholtz Centre Hereon Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
Cecile Thomas-Courcoux
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Marina Tonani
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas
Nologin Oceanic Weather Systems, Madrid, Spain
Jennifer Veitch
Egagasini Node, South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), Cape Town, South Africa
Karina von Schuckmann
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Liying Wan
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center
Beijing, China
John Wilkin
Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Romane Zufic
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
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The paper describes the significant role that ocean forecasting systems play in the blue economy, demonstrating their direct benefits in improving prediction accuracy and downstream applications.
Mauro Cirano, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Emanuela Clementi, Boris Dewitte, Matias Dinápoli, Ghada El Serafy, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Ivonne Montes, Diego A. Narvaez, Heather Regan, Claudia G. Simionato, Gregory C. Smith, Joanna Staneva, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Pramod Thupaki, Claudia Urbano-Latorre, Jennifer Veitch, and Jorge Zavala Hidalgo
State Planet, 5-opsr, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, 2025
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Operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are crucial for human activities, environmental monitoring, and policymaking. An assessment across eight key regions highlights strengths and gaps, particularly in coastal and biogeochemical forecasting. AI offers improvements, but collaboration, knowledge sharing, and initiatives like the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Centre (DCC) are key to enhancing accuracy, accessibility, and global forecasting capabilities.
Angelique Melet, Begoña Pérez Gómez, and Pascal Matte
State Planet, 5-opsr, 11, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-11-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-11-2025, 2025
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Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, which can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
Ségolène Berthou, John Siddorn, Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Ibrahim Hoteit
State Planet, 5-opsr, 20, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-20-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-20-2025, 2025
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Ocean forecasting is traditionally done independently from atmospheric, wave, or river modelling. We discuss the benefits and challenges of bringing all these modelling systems together for ocean forecasting.
Marina Tonani, Eric Chassignet, Mauro Cirano, Yasumasa Miyazawa, and Begoña Pérez Gómez
State Planet, 5-opsr, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-3-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-3-2025, 2025
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This article provides an overview of the main characteristics of ocean forecast systems covering a limited region of the ocean. Their main components are described, as well as the spatial and temporal scales they resolve. The oceanic variables that these systems are able to predict are also explained. An overview of the main forecasting systems currently in operation is also provided.
Andrew R. Porter and Patrick Heimbach
State Planet, 5-opsr, 23, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-23-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-23-2025, 2025
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Numerical ocean forecasting is a key part of accurate models of the Earth system. However, they require powerful computing resources, and the architectures of the necessary computers are evolving rapidly. Unfortunately, this is a disruptive change – an ocean model must be modified to enable it to make use of this new computing hardware. This paper reviews what has been done in this area and identifies solutions to enable operational ocean forecasts to make use of the new computing hardware.
Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Marie Drevillon, and Fabrice Hernandez
State Planet, 5-opsr, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-16-2025, 2025
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Operational forecasting systems require best practices for assessing the quality of ocean products. The authors discuss the role of the observing network in performing validation of ocean models, identifying current gaps but also emphasizing the need of new metrics. An analysis on the level of maturity of validation processes from global to regional systems is provided. A rich variety of approaches exists. An example is provided of how the Copernicus Marine Service organizes product quality information.
Enrique Álvarez Fanjul and Pierre Bahurel
State Planet, 5-opsr, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-1-2025, 2025
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This paper is a description of the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Center and an introduction to this special issue. The objective of this compilation is to describe the actual status of ocean forecasting, detailing its degree of development in the different regions of the world and the most recent advances in all the relevant specific aspects associated with the technique, such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and many others.
Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Antonio Novellino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-7-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-7-2025, 2025
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Ocean prediction relies on the integration between models and satellite and in situ observations through data assimilation techniques. The authors discuss the role of observations in operational ocean forecasting systems, describing the state of the art of satellite and in situ observing networks and defining the paths for addressing multi-scale monitoring and forecasting.
Stefania Ciliberti and Gianpaolo Coro
State Planet, 5-opsr, 24, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-24-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-24-2025, 2025
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This review explores how cloud computing technology and its foundational concepts can enhance operational forecasting with scalable, flexible, and measurable resources. It highlights its benefits for the ocean value chain in support of ocean data management, forecasting system infrastructure, data analysis, visualization of ocean forecasts, dissemination, and outreach, showcasing real-world initiatives from the weather and ocean community.
Yann Drillet, Matthew Martin, Yosuke Fujii, Eric Chassignet, and Stefania Ciliberti
State Planet, 5-opsr, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-2-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-2-2025, 2025
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This article describes the various stages of research and development that have been carried out over the last few decades to produce an operational reference service for global ocean monitoring and forecasting.
Fabrice Hernandez, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, and Angélique Melet
State Planet, 5-opsr, 17, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-17-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-17-2025, 2025
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An historical review over the last 3 decades on intercomparison projects of ocean numerical reanalysis or forecast is first proposed. From this, main issues and lessons learned are discussed in order to propose an overview of best practices and key considerations to facilitate intercomparison activities in operational oceanography.
Michael J. Bell, Andreas Schiller, and Stefania Ciliberti
State Planet, 5-opsr, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-10-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-10-2025, 2025
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We provide an introduction to physical ocean models, at elementary and intermediate levels, describing the properties they represent, the principles and equations they use to evolve these properties, the physical phenomena they simulate, and the wider context and prospects for their further development. We also outline, at a more technical level, the methods and approximations that they use and the difficulties that limit their accuracy or reliability.
Simone Libralato
State Planet, 5-opsr, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-13-2025, 2025
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This work examines the current classification of numerical models of increasing complexity – from individuals and population and stock assessment models to models representing the whole ecosystem by covering all trophic levels – and presents examples and their operational maturity, finally demonstrating their use for supporting marine resource management, conservation, planning, and mitigation actions.
Joanna Staneva, Angelique Melet, Jennifer Veitch, and Pascal Matte
State Planet, 5-opsr, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-4-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-4-2025, 2025
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Coastal services are essential to society, requiring accurate prediction of ocean variables in complex, high-resolution environments. This paper outlines key aspects of coastal modelling and emphasizes the importance of capturing nonlinear interactions and feedbacks. Advances in coastal modelling, observational integration, and predictive skills are highlighted as being vital for supporting sustainability and strengthening climate resilience.
Leonardo Lima, Diana Azevedo, Mehmet Ilicak, Eric Jansen, Filipe Costa, Adil Sozer, Pietro Miraglio, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2114, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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We used a high-resolution ocean model to study how the Black Sea is changing in response to external factors, including climate change. Our results show clear warming, especially between 25 and 150 meters, and reveal important changes in ocean circulation and water masses. The model also supports the development of ocean monitoring indicators, which help track the sea’s response to climate-related trends and improve understanding of how ocean conditions evolve in the Black Sea.
David Storkey, Pierre Mathiot, Michael J. Bell, Dan Copsey, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Helene T. Hewitt, Jeff Ridley, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, 2025
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The Southern Ocean is a key region of the world ocean in the context of climate change studies. We show that the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled model with intermediate ocean resolution struggles to accurately simulate the Southern Ocean. Increasing the frictional drag that the seafloor exerts on ocean currents and introducing a representation of unresolved ocean eddies both appear to reduce the large-scale biases in this model.
Ieuan Higgs, Ross Bannister, Jozef Skákala, Alberto Carrassi, and Stefano Ciavatta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2504.05218, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2504.05218, 2025
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We explored how machine learning can improve computer models that simulate ocean ecosystems. These models help us understand how the ocean works, but they often struggle due to limited observations and complex processes. Our approach uses machine learning to better connect the parts of the system we can observe with those we cannot. This leads to more accurate and efficient predictions, offering a promising way to improve future ocean monitoring and forecasting tools.
Gabriela Martinez-Balbontin, Julien Jouanno, Rachid Benshila, Julien Lamouroux, Coralie Perruche, and Stefano Ciavatta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1246, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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This study uses machine learning to predict chlorophyll-a levels, which are important for monitoring marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle. By using forecasts of sea surface temperature, salinity, height, and mixed layer depth, we can make global predictions up to six months ahead in just minutes. Our approach is as accurate or better than traditional methods, while being faster and more resource-efficient.
Mukund Gupta, Heather Regan, Younghyun Koo, Sean Minhui Tashi Chua, Xueke Li, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 19, 1241–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, 2025
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The sea ice cover is composed of floes, whose shapes set the material properties of the pack. Here, we use a satellite product (ICESat-2) to investigate these floe shapes within the Weddell Sea in Antarctica. We find that floes tend to become smaller during the melt season, while their thickness distribution exhibits different behavior between the western and southern regions of the pack. These metrics will help calibrate models and improve our understanding of sea ice physics across scales.
Abdullah A. Fahad, Andrea Molod, Krzysztof Wargan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Patrick Heimbach, Atanas Trayanov, Ehud Strobach, and Lawrence Coy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1892797/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1892797/v2, 2025
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This study used a 1-degree GEOS-MITgcm coupled GCM to analyze the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric temperature response to external forcing. Results show the NH polar stratospheric temperature increased from 1992 to 2000, contrary to the expectation of stratospheric cooling with rising CO2. However, from 2000 to 2020, the temperature decreased. The study concluded that changes in CO2 and Ozone drive the meridional eddy transport of heat, dictating polar stratospheric temperature behavior.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
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Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
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This study developed a new method to estimate Arctic sea ice thickness from 1992 to 2010 using a combination of machine learning and data assimilation. By training a machine learning model on data from 2011 to 2022, past errors in sea ice thickness can be corrected, leading to improved estimations. This approach provides insights into historical changes in sea ice thickness, showing a notable decline from 1992 to 2022, and offers a valuable resource for future studies.
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657, 2025
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Accurate short-term wave forecasts are key for coastal activities. These forecasts rely on wind and currents as forcing, which in this work were both enhanced using neural networks (NNs) trained with satellite and radar data. Tested at three European sites, the NN-corrected winds were 35 % more accurate, and currents also improved. This led to improved IBI wave model predictions of wave height and period by 10 % and 17 %, respectively; even correcting under extreme events.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4028, 2025
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This paper presents a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system based on a neural network emulator for sea-ice thickness, learned from neXtSIM simulation outputs. Testing with simulated and real observation retrievals, the system improves forecasts and bias error, performing comparably to operational methods, demonstrating the promise of sea-ice data-driven data assimilation systems.
Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Heather Regan, Jonathan Rheinlænder, Pierre Rampal, Daniela Flocco, Abdoulaye Samaké, Richard Davy, Timothy Spain, and Sean Chua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This paper introduces a new version of the neXtSIM sea-ice model. NeXtSIM is unique among sea-ice models in how it represents sea-ice dynamics, focusing on features such as cracks and ridges and how these impact interactions between the atmosphere and ocean where sea ice is present. The new version introduces some physical parameterisations and model options detailed and explained in the paper. Following the paper's publication, the neXtSIM code will be released publicly for the first time.
Siren Rühs, Ton van den Bremer, Emanuela Clementi, Michael C. Denes, Aimie Moulin, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 21, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, 2025
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Simulating the transport of floating particles on the ocean surface is crucial for solving many societal issues. Here, we investigate how the representation of wind-generated surface waves impacts particle transport simulations. We find that different wave-driven processes can alter transport patterns and that commonly adopted approximations are not always adequate. This suggests that ideally coupled ocean–wave models should be used for surface particle transport simulations.
Olmo Zavala-Romero, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, and Jose R. Miranda
Ocean Sci., 21, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-113-2025, 2025
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This study shows AI can speed up data assimilation in ocean models. Researchers used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to assimilate sea surface temperature and height observations in the Gulf of Mexico, learning to replicate corrections made by traditional, computationally expensive methods. CNN design and training window size significantly impacted accuracy, but the percentage of ocean pixels did not. These findings suggest CNNs may accelerate data assimilation in realistic settings.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Aliette Chenal, Gilles Garric, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Mathieu Hamon, Giovanni Ruggiero, Florent Garnier, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3633, 2024
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This study proposes to improve the representation of ice and snow volumes in the Arctic and Antarctic based on a novel multivariate assimilation method using freeboard radar and snow depth satellite data. The approach leads to an improved sea ice and snow volume representation, even during summer when satellite data is limited. The performance of the assimilated system is better in the Arctic than in Antarctica, where ocean/ice interactions play a key role.
Kyoko Ohashi, Arnaud Laurent, Christoph Renkl, Jinyu Sheng, Katja Fennel, and Eric Oliver
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8697–8733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8697-2024, 2024
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We developed a modelling system of the northwest Atlantic Ocean that simulates the currents, temperature, salinity, and parts of the biochemical cycle of the ocean, as well as sea ice. The system combines advanced, open-source models and can be used to study, for example, the ocean capture of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which is a key process in the global climate. The system produces realistic results, and we use it to investigate the roles of tides and sea ice in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
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Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Simon Driscoll, Alberto Carrassi, Julien Brajard, Laurent Bertino, Einar Ólason, Marc Bocquet, and Amos Lawless
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, 2024
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The formation and evolution of sea ice melt ponds (ponds of melted water) are complex, insufficiently understood and represented in models with considerable uncertainty. These uncertain representations are not traditionally included in climate models potentially causing the known underestimation of sea ice loss in climate models. Our work creates the first observationally based machine learning model of melt ponds that is also a ready and viable candidate to be included in climate models.
Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7347–7364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7347-2024, 2024
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Monitoring the ocean is essential for studying marine life and human impact. Our new software, PPCon, uses ocean data to predict key factors like nitrate and chlorophyll levels, which are hard to measure directly. By leveraging machine learning, PPCon offers more accurate and efficient predictions.
Amélie Loubet, Simon J. van Gennip, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, and Marie Drevillon
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-31, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are intensifying due to climate change. In 2023, the Copernicus Marine forecast system tracked a significant MHW event in the North Tropical Atlantic. Here we show this event was unprecedented, at the surface and at depth. It peaked in the northeast in May, spreading southwest to reach the Caribbean by fall. In the east and centre, the MHW remained within the surface layers, while in the Caribbean, it reached deeper levels due to warm waters advected by equatorial eddies.
Antonio Sánchez-Román, Flora Gues, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ananda Pascual, and Marie Drévillon
State Planet, 4-osr8, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-4-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the changing pattern of the Gulf Stream over the last 3 decades as observed in the altimetric record (1993–2022). Changes in the Gulf Stream path have an effect on its speed (and associated energy) and also on waters transported towards the subpolar North Atlantic, impacting Europe's climate. The observed shifts in the paths seem to be linked to variability in the North Atlantic Ocean during winter that may play an important role.
Álvaro de Pascual Collar, Roland Aznar, Bruno Levier, and Marcos García Sotillo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-5-2024, 2024
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The Iberia–Biscay–Ireland region in the North Atlantic has diverse ocean currents impacting upper and deeper layers. These currents are vital for heat transport, species dispersion, and sediment and pollutant movement. Monitoring them is crucial for informed decision-making in ocean-related activities, including the blue economy sector. This study introduces an indicator to track these currents, covering main ones like the Azores, Canary, Portugal, and poleward slope currents.
Ronan McAdam, Giulia Bonino, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 4-osr8, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, 2024
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In the summer of 2022, a regional short-term forecasting system was able to predict the onset, spread, peaks, and decay of a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea up to 10 d in advance. Satellite data show that the event was record-breaking in terms of basin-wide intensity and duration. This study demonstrates the potential of state-of-the-art forecasting systems to provide early warning of marine heatwaves for marine activities (e.g. conservation and aquaculture).
Andrea Storto, Giulia Chierici, Julia Pfeffer, Anne Barnoud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Alejandro Blazquez, Davide Cavaliere, Noémie Lalau, Benjamin Coupry, Marie Drevillon, Sebastien Fourest, Gilles Larnicol, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-12-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-12-2024, 2024
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The variability in the manometric sea level (i.e. the sea level mass component) in three ocean basins is investigated in this study using three different methods (reanalyses, gravimetry, and altimetry in combination with in situ observations). We identify the emerging long-term signals, the consistency of the datasets, and the influence of large-scale climate modes on the regional manometric sea level variations at both seasonal and interannual timescales.
Anna Teruzzi, Ali Aydogdu, Carolina Amadio, Emanuela Clementi, Simone Colella, Valeria Di Biagio, Massimiliano Drudi, Claudia Fanelli, Laura Feudale, Alessandro Grandi, Pietro Miraglio, Andrea Pisano, Jenny Pistoia, Marco Reale, Stefano Salon, Gianluca Volpe, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 4-osr8, 15, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, 2024
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A noticeable cold spell occurred in Eastern Europe at the beginning of 2022 and was the main driver of intense deep-water formation and the associated transport of nutrients to the surface. Southeast of Crete, the availability of both light and nutrients in the surface layer stimulated an anomalous phytoplankton bloom. In the area, chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for bloom intensity) and primary production were considerably higher than usual, suggesting possible impacts on fishery catches.
Wei Chen and Joanna Staneva
State Planet, 4-osr8, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-7-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-7-2024, 2024
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Marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are the unusually warm periods in the ocean, are becoming more frequent and lasting longer in the northwest European Shelf (NWES), particularly near the coast, from 1993 to 2023. However, thermal stratification is weakening, implying that the sea surface warming caused by MHWs is insufficient to counteract the overall stratification decline due to global warming. Moreover, the varying salinity has a notable impact on the trend of density stratification change.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Kunal Madkaiker, Ambarukhana D. Rao, and Sudheer Joseph
Ocean Sci., 20, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1167-2024, 2024
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Using a high-resolution model, we estimated the volume, freshwater, and heat transports along Indian coasts. Affected by coastal currents, transport along the eastern coast is highly seasonal, and the western coast is impacted by intraseasonal oscillations. Coastal currents and equatorial forcing determine the relation between NHT and net heat flux in dissipating heat in coastal waters. The north Indian Ocean functions as a heat source or sink based on seasonal flow of meridional heat transport.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, and Karina von Schuckmann
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-19, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
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Over the last three decades, the Baltic Sea has experienced rising temperature and salinity, reflecting broader atmospheric warming. Heat content fluctuations are driven by subsurface temperature changes in the upper 100 meters, including the thermocline and halocline, influenced by air temperature, evaporation, and wind stress. Freshwater content changes mainly result from salinity shifts in the halocline, with saline water inflow, precipitation, and wind stress as key factors.
Manal Hamdeno, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, George Krokos, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Ocean Sci., 20, 1087–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on the characteristics of MHWs in the Red Sea during the last 4 decades. Using satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), we found a clear warming trend in the Red Sea since 1994, which has intensified significantly since 2016. This SST rise was associated with an increase in the frequency and days of MHWs. In addition, a correlation was found between the frequency of MHWs and some climate modes, which was more pronounced in some years of the study period.
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
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Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
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To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Jozef Skakala, David Ford, Keith Haines, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Philip Browne, Marcin Chrust, Stefano Ciavatta, Alison Fowler, Daniel Lea, Matthew Palmer, Andrea Rochner, Jennifer Waters, Hao Zuo, Mike Bell, Davi Carneiro, Yumeng Chen, Susan Kay, Dale Partridge, Martin Price, Richard Renshaw, Georgy Shapiro, and James While
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1737, 2024
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In this paper we review marine data assimilation (MDA) in the UK, its stakeholders, needs, past and present developments in different areas of UK MDA, and offer a vision for their longer future. The specific areas covered are ocean physics and sea ice, marine biogeochemistry, coupled MDA, MDA informing observing network design and MDA theory. We also discuss future vision for MDA resources: observations, software, hardware and people skills.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Carolina Amadio, Anna Teruzzi, Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, Gianluca Coidessa, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Ocean Sci., 20, 689–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-689-2024, 2024
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Forecasting of marine biogeochemistry can be improved via the assimilation of observations. Floating buoys provide multivariate information about the status of the ocean interior. Information on the ocean interior can be expanded/augmented by machine learning. In this work, we show the enhanced impact of assimilating new in situ variables (oxygen) and reconstructed variables (nitrate) in the operational forecast system (MedBFM) model of the Mediterranean Sea.
Yumeng Chen, Polly Smith, Alberto Carrassi, Ivo Pasmans, Laurent Bertino, Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 18, 2381–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, 2024
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We explore multivariate state and parameter estimation using a data assimilation approach through idealised simulations in a dynamics-only sea-ice model based on novel rheology. We identify various potential issues that can arise in complex operational sea-ice models when model parameters are estimated. Even though further investigation will be needed for such complex sea-ice models, we show possibilities of improving the observed and the unobserved model state forecast and parameter accuracy.
Cyril Palerme, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Laurent Bertino, and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 18, 2161–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, 2024
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Sea ice forecasts are operationally produced using physically based models, but these forecasts are often not accurate enough for maritime operations. In this study, we developed a statistical correction technique using machine learning in order to improve the skill of short-term (up to 10 d) sea ice concentration forecasts produced by the TOPAZ4 model. This technique allows for the reduction of errors from the TOPAZ4 sea ice concentration forecasts by 41 % on average.
Sylvain Cailleau, Laurent Bessières, Léonel Chiendje, Flavie Dubost, Guillaume Reffray, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Simon van Gennip, Charly Régnier, Marie Drevillon, Marc Tressol, Matthieu Clavier, Julien Temple-Boyer, and Léo Berline
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3157–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, 2024
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In order to improve Sargassum drift forecasting in the Caribbean area, drift models can be forced by higher-resolution ocean currents. To this goal a 3 km resolution regional ocean model has been developed. Its assessment is presented with a particular focus on the reproduction of fine structures representing key features of the Caribbean region dynamics and Sargassum transport. The simulated propagation of a North Brazil Current eddy and its dissipation was found to be quite realistic.
Marina Durán Moro, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Thomas Lavergne, Laurent Bertino, Yvonne Gusdal, Silje Christine Iversen, and Jozef Rusin
The Cryosphere, 18, 1597–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1597-2024, 2024
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Individual satellite passes instead of daily means of sea ice concentration are used to correct the sea ice model forecast in the Barents Sea. The use of passes provides a significantly larger improvement of the forecasts even after a 7 d period due to the more precise information on temporal and spatial variability contained in the passes. One major advantage of the use of satellite passes is that there is no need to wait for the daily mean availability in order to update the forecast.
Yasser O. Abualnaja, Alexandra Pavlidou, James H. Churchill, Ioannis Hatzianestis, Dimitris Velaoras, Harilaos Kontoyiannis, Vassilis P. Papadopoulos, Aristomenis P. Karageorgis, Georgia Assimakopoulou, Helen Kaberi, Theodoros Kannelopoulos, Constantine Parinos, Christina Zeri, Dionysios Ballas, Elli Pitta, Vassiliki Paraskevopoulou, Afroditi Androni, Styliani Chourdaki, Vassileia Fioraki, Stylianos Iliakis, Georgia Kabouri, Angeliki Konstantinopoulou, Georgios Krokos, Dimitra Papageorgiou, Alkiviadis Papageorgiou, Georgios Pappas, Elvira Plakidi, Eleni Rousselaki, Ioanna Stavrakaki, Eleni Tzempelikou, Panagiota Zachioti, Anthi Yfanti, Theodore Zoulias, Abdulah Al Amoudi, Yasser Alshehri, Ahmad Alharbi, Hammad Al Sulami, Taha Boksmati, Rayan Mutwalli, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1703–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1703-2024, 2024
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We present oceanographic measurements obtained during two surveillance cruises conducted in June and September 2021 in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. It is the first multidisciplinary survey within the Saudi Arabian coastal zone, extending from near the Saudi–Jordanian border in the north of the Red Sea to the south close to the Saudi--Yemen border and in the Arabian Gulf. The objective was to record the pollution status along the coastal zone of the kingdom related to specific pressures.
Giulia Bonino, Giuliano Galimberti, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 20, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, 2024
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This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
Phoebe A. Hudson, Adrien C. H. Martin, Simon A. Josey, Alice Marzocchi, and Athanasios Angeloudis
Ocean Sci., 20, 341–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-341-2024, 2024
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Satellite salinity data are used for the first time to study variability in Arctic freshwater transport from the Lena River and are shown to be a valuable tool for studying this region. These data confirm east/westerly wind is the main control on fresh water and sea ice transport rather than the volume of river runoff. The strong role of the wind suggests understanding how wind patterns will change is key to predicting future Arctic circulation and sea ice concentration.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, 2024
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The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.
Mounir Benkiran, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Elisabeth Rémy, and Yann Drillet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-420, 2024
Preprint archived
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The assimilation of altimetry data corrects and improves the forecast of a global ocean forecasting system. Until now, the use of altimetry observations from nadir altimeters has had a major impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. Our study shows that the use of observations from swath altimeters will have a greater impact than the quality of these forecasts and will better constrain mesoscale structures.
Mikhail Popov, Jean-Michel Brankart, Arthur Capet, Emmanuel Cosme, and Pierre Brasseur
Ocean Sci., 20, 155–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-155-2024, 2024
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This study contributes to the development of methods to estimate targeted ocean ecosystem indicators, including their uncertainty, in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service. A simplified approach is introduced to perform a 4D ensemble analysis and forecast, directly targeting selected biogeochemical variables and indicators (phenology, trophic efficiency, downward flux of organic matter). Care is taken to present the methods and discuss the reliability of the solution proposed.
Ieuan Higgs, Jozef Skákala, Ross Bannister, Alberto Carrassi, and Stefano Ciavatta
Biogeosciences, 21, 731–746, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-731-2024, 2024
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A complex network is a way of representing which parts of a system are connected to other parts. We have constructed a complex network based on an ecosystem–ocean model. From this, we can identify patterns in the structure and areas of similar behaviour. This can help to understand how natural, or human-made, changes will affect the shelf sea ecosystem, and it can be used in multiple future applications such as improving modelling, data assimilation, or machine learning.
Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Lina Garcia Suarez, and Jasmin G. John
Biogeosciences, 21, 301–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024, 2024
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We downscaled two mid-century (~2075) ocean model projections to a high-resolution regional ocean model of the northwest North Atlantic (NA) shelf. In one projection, the NA shelf break current practically disappears; in the other it remains almost unchanged. This leads to a wide range of possible future shelf properties. More accurate projections of coastal circulation features would narrow the range of possible outcomes of biogeochemical projections for shelf regions.
Qiang Wang, Qi Shu, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Andy McC. Hogg, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, Nikolay Koldunov, Julien Le Sommer, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Hailong Liu, Igor Polyakov, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Shizhu Wang, and Xiaobiao Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 347–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024, 2024
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Increasing resolution improves model skills in simulating the Arctic Ocean, but other factors such as parameterizations and numerics are at least of the same importance for obtaining reliable simulations.
Robert W. Izett, Katja Fennel, Adam C. Stoer, and David P. Nicholson
Biogeosciences, 21, 13–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-13-2024, 2024
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This paper provides an overview of the capacity to expand the global coverage of marine primary production estimates using autonomous ocean-going instruments, called Biogeochemical-Argo floats. We review existing approaches to quantifying primary production using floats, provide examples of the current implementation of the methods, and offer insights into how they can be better exploited. This paper is timely, given the ongoing expansion of the Biogeochemical-Argo array.
Li-Qing Jiang, Adam V. Subhas, Daniela Basso, Katja Fennel, and Jean-Pierre Gattuso
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-13-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-13-2023, 2023
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This paper provides comprehensive guidelines for ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) researchers on archiving their metadata and data. It includes data standards for various OAE studies and a universal metadata template. Controlled vocabularies for terms like alkalinization methods are included. These guidelines also apply to ocean acidification data.
Katja Fennel, Matthew C. Long, Christopher Algar, Brendan Carter, David Keller, Arnaud Laurent, Jann Paul Mattern, Ruth Musgrave, Andreas Oschlies, Josiane Ostiguy, Jaime B. Palter, and Daniel B. Whitt
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-9-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-9-2023, 2023
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This paper describes biogeochemical models and modelling techniques for applications related to ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) research. Many of the most pressing OAE-related research questions cannot be addressed by observation alone but will require a combination of skilful models and observations. We present illustrative examples with references to further information; describe limitations, caveats, and future research needs; and provide practical recommendations.
Eva Álvarez, Gianpiero Cossarini, Anna Teruzzi, Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Stefano Ciavatta, Vincenzo Vellucci, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, David Antoine, and Paolo Lazzari
Biogeosciences, 20, 4591–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4591-2023, 2023
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Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) interacts with the ambient light and gives the waters of the Mediterranean Sea their colour. We propose a novel parameterization of the CDOM cycle, whose parameter values have been optimized by using the data of the monitoring site BOUSSOLE. Nutrient and light limitations for locally produced CDOM caused aCDOM(λ) to covary with chlorophyll, while the above-average CDOM concentrations observed at this site were maintained by allochthonous sources.
Simone Spada, Anna Teruzzi, Stefano Maset, Stefano Salon, Cosimo Solidoro, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-170, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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In geosciences, data assimilation (DA) combines modeled dynamics and observations to reduce simulation uncertainties. Uncertainties can be dynamically and effectively estimated in ensemble DA methods. With respect to current techniques, the novel GHOSH ensemble DA scheme is designed to improve accuracy by reaching a higher approximation order, without increasing computational costs, as demonstrated in idealized Lorenz96 tests and in realistic simulations of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
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The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Valeria Di Biagio, Riccardo Martellucci, Milena Menna, Anna Teruzzi, Carolina Amadio, Elena Mauri, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 1-osr7, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-10-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-10-2023, 2023
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Oxygen is essential to all aerobic organisms, and its content in the marine environment is continuously under assessment. By integrating observations with a model, we describe the dissolved oxygen variability in a sensitive Mediterranean area in the period 1999–2021 and ascribe it to multiple acting physical and biological drivers. Moreover, the reduction recognized in 2021, apparently also due to other mechanisms, requires further monitoring in light of its possible impacts.
Álvaro de Pascual-Collar, Roland Aznar, Bruno Levier, and Marcos García-Sotillo
State Planet, 1-osr7, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-9-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-9-2023, 2023
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The article comprises the analysis of the ocean heat content in the northeastern Atlantic Iberian–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) region. The variability of ocean heat content is studied, and results are linked with the variability of the main water masses found in the region. Results show how the coupled interannual variability of water masses accounts for an important part of the total ocean heat content variability in the region.
Pablo Lorente, Anna Rubio, Emma Reyes, Lohitzune Solabarrieta, Silvia Piedracoba, Joaquín Tintoré, and Julien Mader
State Planet, 1-osr7, 8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-8-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-8-2023, 2023
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Upwelling is an important process that impacts water quality and aquaculture production in coastal areas. In this work we present a new methodology to monitor this phenomenon in two different regions by using surface current estimations provided by remote sensing technology called high-frequency radar.
Carolina B. Gramcianinov, Joanna Staneva, Celia R. G. Souza, Priscila Linhares, Ricardo de Camargo, and Pedro L. da Silva Dias
State Planet, 1-osr7, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-12-2023, 2023
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We analyse extreme wave event trends in the south-western South Atlantic in the last 29 years using wave products and coastal hazard records. The results show important regional changes associated with increased mean sea wave height, wave period, and wave power. We also find a rise in the number of coastal hazards related to waves affecting the state of São Paulo, Brazil, which partially agrees with the increase in extreme waves in the adjacent ocean sector but is also driven by local factors.
Ali Aydogdu, Pietro Miraglio, Romain Escudier, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 1-osr7, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, 2023
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This paper investigates the salt content, salinity anomaly and trend in the Mediterranean Sea using observational and reanalysis products. The salt content increases overall, while negative salinity anomalies appear in the western basin, especially around the upwelling regions. There is a large spread in the salinity estimates that is reduced with the emergence of the Argo profilers.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
State Planet, 1-osr7, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, 2023
Carl Wunsch, Sarah Williamson, and Patrick Heimbach
Ocean Sci., 19, 1253–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1253-2023, 2023
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Data assimilation methods that couple observations with dynamical models are essential for understanding climate change. Here,
climateincludes all sub-elements (ocean, atmosphere, ice, etc.). A common form of combination arises from sequential estimation theory, a methodology susceptible to a variety of errors that can accumulate through time for long records. Using two simple analogs, examples of these errors are identified and discussed, along with suggestions for accommodating them.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Stéphane Law-Chune, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf
Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023
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Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and can drive coastal marine hazards such as coastal flooding. In this paper, by using numerical modeling along the European Atlantic coastline, we assess how present and future wave characteristics are impacted by sea level changes. For example, at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, extreme significant wave heights are higher by up to +40 % due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise.
Bronwyn E. Cahill, Piotr Kowalczuk, Lena Kritten, Ulf Gräwe, John Wilkin, and Jürgen Fischer
Biogeosciences, 20, 2743–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2743-2023, 2023
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We quantify the impact of optically significant water constituents on surface heating rates and thermal energy fluxes in the western Baltic Sea. During productive months in 2018 (April to September) we found that the combined effect of coloured
dissolved organic matter and particulate absorption contributes to sea surface heating of between 0.4 and 0.9 K m−1 d−1 and a mean loss of heat (ca. 5 W m−2) from the sea to the atmosphere. This may be important for regional heat balance budgets.
Benjamin Richaud, Katja Fennel, Eric C. J. Oliver, Michael D. DeGrandpre, Timothée Bourgeois, Xianmin Hu, and Youyu Lu
The Cryosphere, 17, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is a dynamic carbon reservoir. Its seasonal growth and melt modify the carbonate chemistry in the upper ocean, with consequences for the Arctic Ocean carbon sink. Yet, the importance of this process is poorly quantified. Using two independent approaches, this study provides new methods to evaluate the error in air–sea carbon flux estimates due to the lack of biogeochemistry in ice in earth system models. Those errors range from 5 % to 30 %, depending on the model and climate projection.
Rui Sun, Alison Cobb, Ana B. Villas Bôas, Sabique Langodan, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Matthew R. Mazloff, Bruce D. Cornuelle, Arthur J. Miller, Raju Pathak, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3435–3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, 2023
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In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS. We then performed a case study using the newly implemented model to study Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea. We found that the coupled model better simulates the cyclone than the uncoupled model, but the impact of waves on the cyclone is not significant. However, the waves change the sea surface temperature and mixed layer, especially in the cold waves produced due to the cyclone.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
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Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Alexandre Mignot, Hervé Claustre, Gianpiero Cossarini, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Elodie Gutknecht, Julien Lamouroux, Paolo Lazzari, Coralie Perruche, Stefano Salon, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Vincent Taillandier, and Anna Teruzzi
Biogeosciences, 20, 1405–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, 2023
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Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are becoming a major tool to detect and predict the impact of climate change on marine resources and monitor ocean health. Here, we demonstrate the use of the global array of BGC-Argo floats for the assessment of biogeochemical models. We first detail the handling of the BGC-Argo data set for model assessment purposes. We then present 23 assessment metrics to quantify the consistency of BGC model simulations with respect to BGC-Argo data.
Jiping Xie, Roshin P. Raj, Laurent Bertino, Justino Martínez, Carolina Gabarró, and Rafael Catany
Ocean Sci., 19, 269–287, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-269-2023, 2023
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Sea ice melt, together with other freshwater sources, has effects on the Arctic environment. Sea surface salinity (SSS) plays a key role in representing water mixing. Recently the satellite SSS from SMOS was developed in the Arctic region. In this study, we first evaluate the impact of assimilating these satellite data in an Arctic reanalysis system. It shows that SSS errors are reduced by 10–50 % depending on areas, encouraging its use in a long-time reanalysis to monitor the Arctic water cycle.
Djoirka Minto Dimoune, Florence Birol, Fabrice Hernandez, Fabien Léger, and Moacyr Araujo
Ocean Sci., 19, 251–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-251-2023, 2023
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Altimeter-derived currents are used here to revisit the seasonal and interannual variability of all surface currents involved in the western tropical Atlantic circulation. A new approach based on the calculation of the current strengths and core positions is used to investigate the relationship between the currents, the remote wind variability, and the tropical Atlantic modes. The results show relationships at the seasonal and interannual timescale depending on the location of the currents.
Guillaume Boutin, Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, Heather Regan, Camille Lique, Claude Talandier, Laurent Brodeau, and Robert Ricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023
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Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
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Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Arnaud Laurent, Haiyan Zhang, and Katja Fennel
Biogeosciences, 19, 5893–5910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5893-2022, 2022
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The Changjiang is the main terrestrial source of nutrients to the East China Sea (ECS). Nutrient delivery to the ECS has been increasing since the 1960s, resulting in low oxygen (hypoxia) during phytoplankton decomposition in summer. River phosphorus (P) has increased less than nitrogen, and therefore, despite the large nutrient delivery, phytoplankton growth can be limited by the lack of P. Here, we investigate this link between P limitation, phytoplankton production/decomposition, and hypoxia.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Salon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 19, 5553–5574, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, 2022
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The amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean is the result of interacting physical and biological processes. Oxygen vertical profiles show a subsurface maximum in a large part of the ocean. We used a numerical model to map this subsurface maximum in the Mediterranean Sea and to link local differences in its properties to the driving processes. This emerging feature can help the marine ecosystem functioning to be better understood, also under the impacts of climate change.
Diego Bruciaferri, Marina Tonani, Isabella Ascione, Fahad Al Senafi, Enda O'Dea, Helene T. Hewitt, and Andrew Saulter
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8705–8730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8705-2022, 2022
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More accurate predictions of the Gulf's ocean dynamics are needed. We investigate the impact on the predictive skills of a numerical shelf sea model of the Gulf after changing a few key aspects. Increasing the lateral and vertical resolution and optimising the vertical coordinate system to best represent the leading physical processes at stake significantly improve the accuracy of the simulated dynamics. Additional work may be needed to get real benefit from using a more realistic bathymetry.
Huayang Cai, Hao Yang, Pascal Matte, Haidong Pan, Zhan Hu, Tongtiegang Zhao, and Guangliang Liu
Ocean Sci., 18, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1691-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1691-2022, 2022
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Quantifying spatial–temporal water level dynamics is essential for water resources management in estuaries. In this study, we propose a simple yet powerful regression model to examine the influence of the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), on the spatial–temporal water level dynamics within the Yangtze River estuary. The presented method is particularly useful for determining scientific strategies for sustainable water resources management in dam-controlled estuaries worldwide.
Matias Alday, Fabrice Ardhuin, Guillaume Dodet, and Mickael Accensi
Ocean Sci., 18, 1665–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1665-2022, 2022
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Obtaining accurate results from wave models in coastal regions is typically more difficult. This is due to the complex interactions between waves and the local environment characteristics like complex shorelines, sea bottom topography, the presence of strong currents, and other processes that include wave growth and decay. In the present study we analyze which elements can be adjusted and/or included in order to reduce errors in the modeled output.
Shun Ohishi, Tsutomu Hihara, Hidenori Aiki, Joji Ishizaka, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Misako Kachi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8395–8410, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8395-2022, 2022
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We develop an ensemble-Kalman-filter-based regional ocean data assimilation system in which satellite and in situ observations are assimilated at a daily frequency. We find the best setting for dynamical balance and accuracy based on sensitivity experiments focused on how to inflate the ensemble spread and how to apply the analysis update to the model evolution. This study has a broader impact on more general data assimilation systems in which the initial shocks are a significant issue.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
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This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Rachael N. C. Sanders, Daniel C. Jones, Simon A. Josey, Bablu Sinha, and Gael Forget
Ocean Sci., 18, 953–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-953-2022, 2022
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In 2015, record low temperatures were observed in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean model, we show that surface heat loss in December 2013 caused 75 % of the initial cooling before this "cold blob" was trapped below the surface. The following summer, the cold blob re-emerged due to a strong temperature difference between the surface ocean and below, driving vertical diffusion of heat. Lower than average surface warming then led to the coldest temperature anomalies in August 2015.
Elias J. Hunter, Heidi L. Fuchs, John L. Wilkin, Gregory P. Gerbi, Robert J. Chant, and Jessica C. Garwood
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4297–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4297-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4297-2022, 2022
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ROMSPath is an offline particle tracking model tailored for use with output from Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulations. It is an update to an established system, the Lagrangian TRANSport (LTRANS) model, including a number of improvements. These include a modification of the model coordinate system which improved accuracy and numerical efficiency, and added functionality for nested grids and Stokes drift.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
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A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
David S. Trossman, Caitlin B. Whalen, Thomas W. N. Haine, Amy F. Waterhouse, An T. Nguyen, Arash Bigdeli, Matthew Mazloff, and Patrick Heimbach
Ocean Sci., 18, 729–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-729-2022, 2022
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How the ocean mixes is not yet adequately represented by models. There are many challenges with representing this mixing. A model that minimizes disagreements between observations and the model could be used to fill in the gaps from observations to better represent ocean mixing. But observations of ocean mixing have large uncertainties. Here, we show that ocean oxygen, which has relatively small uncertainties, and observations of ocean mixing provide information similar to the model.
M. G. Ziliani, M. U. Altaf, B. Aragon, R. Houborg, T. E. Franz, Y. Lu, J. Sheffield, I. Hoteit, and M. F. McCabe
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 1045–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022, 2022
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, 2022
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This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Mounir Benkiran, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Gérald Dibarboure
Ocean Sci., 18, 609–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-609-2022, 2022
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The SSH analysis and 7 d forecast error will be globally reduced by almost 50 %. Surface current forecast errors should be equivalent to today’s surface current analysis errors or alternatively will be improved (variance error reduction) by 30 % at the surface and 50 % for 300 m depth.
The resolution capabilities will be drastically improved and will be closer to 100 km wavelength as opposed to today where they are above 250 km (on average).
Fabio Mangini, Léon Chafik, Antonio Bonaduce, Laurent Bertino, and Jan Even Ø. Nilsen
Ocean Sci., 18, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-331-2022, 2022
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We validate the recent ALES-reprocessed coastal satellite altimetry dataset along the Norwegian coast between 2003 and 2018. We find that coastal altimetry and conventional altimetry products perform similarly along the Norwegian coast. However, the agreement with tide gauges slightly increases in terms of trends when we use the ALES coastal altimetry data. We then use the ALES dataset and hydrographic stations to explore the steric contribution to the Norwegian sea-level anomaly.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Guillaume Reffray, Aurore Voldoire, and Angélique Melet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022
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Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Projections of coastal sea level changes are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and have significantly developed in recent years. In this paper, the objective is to provide high-resolution (6 km) projections of sea level changes in the northeastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe. For that purpose, a regional model is used to refine existing coarse global projections.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Justino Martínez, Carolina Gabarró, Antonio Turiel, Verónica González-Gambau, Marta Umbert, Nina Hoareau, Cristina González-Haro, Estrella Olmedo, Manuel Arias, Rafael Catany, Laurent Bertino, Roshin P. Raj, Jiping Xie, Roberto Sabia, and Diego Fernández
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 307–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-307-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-307-2022, 2022
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Measuring salinity from space is challenging since the sensitivity of the brightness temperature to sea surface salinity is low, but the retrieval of SSS in cold waters is even more challenging. In 2019, the ESA launched a specific initiative called Arctic+Salinity to produce an enhanced Arctic SSS product with better quality and resolution than the available products. This paper presents the methodologies used to produce the new enhanced Arctic SMOS SSS product.
Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Dariia Atamanchuk, Douglas Wallace, and Helmuth Thomas
Biogeosciences, 18, 6271–6286, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6271-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6271-2021, 2021
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Using a regional model of the northwestern North Atlantic shelves in combination with a surface water time series and repeat transect observations, we investigate surface CO2 variability on the Scotian Shelf. The study highlights a strong seasonal cycle in shelf-wide pCO2 and spatial variability throughout the summer months driven by physical events. The simulated net flux of CO2 on the Scotian Shelf is out of the ocean, deviating from the global air–sea CO2 flux trend in continental shelves.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, D. Gwyn Evans, Simon A. Josey, Sheldon Bacon, and Ben I. Moat
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-79, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The Arctic is currently warming twice as fast as the global average. This results in enhanced melting and thus freshwater releases into the North Atlantic. Using a combination of observations and models, we show that atmosphere-ocean feedbacks initiated by freshwater releases into the North Atlantic lead to warmer and drier weather over Europe in subsequent summers. The existence of this dynamical link suggests that European summer weather can potentially be predicted months to years in advance.
Anna Teruzzi, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 18, 6147–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, 2021
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During summer, maxima of phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration (DCM) occur in the subsurface of the Mediterranean Sea and can play a relevant role in carbon sequestration into the ocean interior. A numerical model based on in situ and satellite observations provides insights into the range of DCM conditions across the relatively small Mediterranean Sea and shows a western DCM that is 25 % shallower and with a higher phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration than in the eastern Mediterranean.
Tillys Petit, M. Susan Lozier, Simon A. Josey, and Stuart A. Cunningham
Ocean Sci., 17, 1353–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, 2021
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Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. From our analysis, we find that air–sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation in the Iceland Basin. However, the spatial distribution of the subpolar mode water (SPMW) transformation is most sensitive to surface density changes as opposed to the direct influence of the air–sea fluxes.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Bin Wang, Katja Fennel, and Liuqian Yu
Ocean Sci., 17, 1141–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1141-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1141-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate that even sparse BGC-Argo profiles can substantially improve biogeochemical prediction via a priori model tuning. By assimilating satellite surface chlorophyll and physical observations, subsurface distributions of physical properties and nutrients were improved immediately. The improvement of subsurface chlorophyll was modest initially but was greatly enhanced after adjusting the parameterization for light attenuation through further a priori tuning.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Thomas S. Bianchi, Madhur Anand, Chris T. Bauch, Donald E. Canfield, Luc De Meester, Katja Fennel, Peter M. Groffman, Michael L. Pace, Mak Saito, and Myrna J. Simpson
Biogeosciences, 18, 3005–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3005-2021, 2021
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Better development of interdisciplinary ties between biology, geology, and chemistry advances biogeochemistry through (1) better integration of contemporary (or rapid) evolutionary adaptation to predict changing biogeochemical cycles and (2) universal integration of data from long-term monitoring sites in terrestrial, aquatic, and human systems that span broad geographical regions for use in modeling.
Arnaud Laurent, Katja Fennel, and Angela Kuhn
Biogeosciences, 18, 1803–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021, 2021
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CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, and a high-resolution regional model, were evaluated by comparing historical simulations with observations in the northwest North Atlantic, a climate-sensitive and biologically productive ocean margin region. Many of the CMIP models performed poorly for biological properties. There is no clear link between model resolution and skill in the global models, but there is an overall improvement in performance in CMIP6 from CMIP5. The regional model performed best.
Gregory C. Smith, Yimin Liu, Mounir Benkiran, Kamel Chikhar, Dorina Surcel Colan, Audrey-Anne Gauthier, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Frederic Dupont, Ji Lei, François Roy, Jean-François Lemieux, and Fraser Davidson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1445–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1445-2021, 2021
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Canada's coastlines include diverse ocean environments. In response to the strong need to support marine activities and security, we present the first pan-Canadian operational regional ocean analysis system. A novel online tidal harmonic analysis method is introduced that uses a sliding-window approach. Innovations are compared to those from the Canadian global analysis system. Particular improvements are found near the Gulf Stream due to the higher model grid resolution.
Sourav Chatterjee, Roshin P. Raj, Laurent Bertino, Sebastian H. Mernild, Meethale Puthukkottu Subeesh, Nuncio Murukesh, and Muthalagu Ravichandran
The Cryosphere, 15, 1307–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1307-2021, 2021
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Sea ice in the Greenland Sea (GS) is important for its climatic (fresh water), economical (shipping), and ecological contribution (light availability). The study proposes a mechanism through which sea ice concentration in GS is partly governed by the atmospheric and ocean circulation in the region. The mechanism proposed in this study can be useful for assessing the sea ice variability and its future projection in the GS.
Florian Ricour, Arthur Capet, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Bruno Delille, and Marilaure Grégoire
Biogeosciences, 18, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-755-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-755-2021, 2021
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This paper addresses the phenology of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) in the Black Sea (BS). We show that the DCM forms in March at a density level set by the winter mixed layer. It maintains this location until June, suggesting an influence of the DCM on light and nutrient profiles rather than mere adaptation to external factors. In summer, the DCM concentrates ~55 % of the chlorophyll in a 10 m layer at ~35 m depth and should be considered a major feature of the BS phytoplankton dynamics.
Arthur Capet, Luc Vandenbulcke, and Marilaure Grégoire
Biogeosciences, 17, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6507-2020, 2020
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The Black Sea is 2000 m deep, but, due to limited ventilation, only about the upper 100 m contains enough oxygen to support marine life such as fish. This oxygenation depth has been shown to be decreasing (1955–2019). Here, we evidence that atmospheric warming induced a clear shift in an important ventilation mechanism. We highlight the impact of this shift on oxygenation. There are important implications for marine life and carbon and nutrient cycling if this new ventilation regime persists.
Valeria Di Biagio, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 17, 5967–5988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, 2020
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Events that influence the functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems are of interest in relation to a changing climate. We propose a method to identify and characterise
wavesof extreme events affecting marine ecosystems for multi-week periods over wide areas. Our method can be applied to suitable ecosystem variables and has been used to describe different kinds of extreme event waves of phytoplankton chlorophyll in the Mediterranean Sea, by analysing the output from a high-resolution model.
Haiyan Zhang, Katja Fennel, Arnaud Laurent, and Changwei Bian
Biogeosciences, 17, 5745–5761, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5745-2020, 2020
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In coastal seas, low oxygen, which is detrimental to coastal ecosystems, is increasingly caused by man-made nutrients from land. This is especially so near mouths of major rivers, including the Changjiang in the East China Sea. Here a simulation model is used to identify the main factors determining low-oxygen conditions in the region. High river discharge is identified as the prime cause, while wind and intrusions of open-ocean water modulate the severity and extent of low-oxygen conditions.
Louis Marié, Fabrice Collard, Frédéric Nouguier, Lucia Pineau-Guillou, Danièle Hauser, François Boy, Stéphane Méric, Peter Sutherland, Charles Peureux, Goulven Monnier, Bertrand Chapron, Adrien Martin, Pierre Dubois, Craig Donlon, Tania Casal, and Fabrice Ardhuin
Ocean Sci., 16, 1399–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1399-2020, 2020
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With present-day techniques, ocean surface currents are poorly known near the Equator and globally for spatial scales under 200 km and timescales under 30 d. Wide-swath radar Doppler measurements are an alternative technique. Such direct surface current measurements are, however, affected by platform motions and waves. These contributions are analyzed in data collected during the DRIFT4SKIM airborne and in situ experiment, demonstrating the possibility of measuring currents from space globally.
Oliver Miguel López Valencia, Kasper Johansen, Bruno José Luis Aragón Solorio, Ting Li, Rasmus Houborg, Yoann Malbeteau, Samer AlMashharawi, Muhammad Umer Altaf, Essam Mohammed Fallatah, Hari Prasad Dasari, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Matthew Francis McCabe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5251–5277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5251-2020, 2020
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The agricultural sector in Saudi Arabia has expanded rapidly over the last few decades, supported by non-renewable groundwater abstraction. This study describes a novel data–model fusion approach to compile national-scale groundwater abstractions and demonstrates its use over 5000 individual center-pivot fields. This method will allow both farmers and water management agencies to make informed water accounting decisions across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
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Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Eric P. Chassignet, Stephen G. Yeager, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Alexandra Bozec, Frederic Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Christopher Horvat, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Hailong Liu, Dmitry V. Sein, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, and Xiaobiao Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4595–4637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4595-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4595-2020, 2020
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This paper presents global comparisons of fundamental global climate variables from a suite of four pairs of matched low- and high-resolution ocean and sea ice simulations to assess the robustness of climate-relevant improvements in ocean simulations associated with moving from coarse (∼1°) to eddy-resolving (∼0.1°) horizontal resolutions. Despite significant improvements, greatly enhanced horizontal resolution does not deliver unambiguous bias reduction in all regions for all models.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
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Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Alexander G. López, John L. Wilkin, and Julia C. Levin
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3709–3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3709-2020, 2020
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This article describes a regional circulation model, Doppio, for the Mid-Atlantic Bight and the Gulf of Maine. The model demonstrates useful skill in comparison to a comprehensive suite of observations. Development focused on achieving a model configuration that allows decadal-scale simulations of physical ocean circulation that can underpin studies of ecosystems and biogeochemistry. Doppio captures the temperature and salinity stratification well, along with the large-scale mean circulation.
Hiroyuki Tsujino, L. Shogo Urakawa, Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Alistair J. Adcroft, Arthur E. Amaral, Thomas Arsouze, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Claus W. Böning, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Sergey Danilov, Raphael Dussin, Eleftheria Exarchou, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Doroteaciro Iovino, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Vladimir Lapin, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Keith Lindsay, Hailong Liu, Matthew C. Long, Yoshiki Komuro, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Aleksi Nummelin, Jan Klaus Rieck, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Markus Scheinert, Valentina Sicardi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Qiang Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Zipeng Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3643–3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, 2020
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The OMIP-2 framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations is assessed by comparing multi-model means from 11 CMIP6-class global ocean–sea-ice models calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations. Many features are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet key improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2 are also identified. Thus, the present assessment justifies that future ocean–sea-ice model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.
Christopher Gordon, Katja Fennel, Clark Richards, Lynn K. Shay, and Jodi K. Brewster
Biogeosciences, 17, 4119–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4119-2020, 2020
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We describe a method for correcting errors in oxygen optode measurements on autonomous platforms in the ocean. The errors result from the relatively slow response time of the sensor. The correction method includes an in situ determination of the effective response time and requires the time stamps of the individual measurements. It is highly relevant for the BGC-Argo program and also applicable to gliders. We also explore if diurnal changes in oxygen can be obtained from profiling floats.
Bin Wang, Katja Fennel, Liuqian Yu, and Christopher Gordon
Biogeosciences, 17, 4059–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4059-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4059-2020, 2020
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We assess trade-offs between different types of biological observations, specifically satellite ocean color and BGC-Argo profiles and the benefits of combining both for optimizing a biogeochemical model of the Gulf of Mexico. Using all available observations leads to significant improvements in observed and unobserved variables (including primary production and C export). Our results highlight the significant benefits of BGC-Argo measurements for biogeochemical model optimization and validation.
Xavier Couvelard, Florian Lemarié, Guillaume Samson, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Fabrice Ardhuin, Rachid Benshila, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3067–3090, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3067-2020, 2020
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Within the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), an objective is to demonstrate the contribution of coupling the high-resolution analysis and forecasting system with a wave model. This study describes the necessary steps and discusses the various choices made for coupling a wave model and an oceanic model for global-scale applications.
Taylor A. Shropshire, Steven L. Morey, Eric P. Chassignet, Alexandra Bozec, Victoria J. Coles, Michael R. Landry, Rasmus Swalethorp, Glenn Zapfe, and Michael R. Stukel
Biogeosciences, 17, 3385–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3385-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3385-2020, 2020
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Zooplankton are the smallest animals in the ocean and important food for fish. Despite their importance, zooplankton have been relatively undersampled. To better understand the zooplankton community in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), we developed a model to simulate their dynamics. We found that heterotrophic protists are important for supporting mesozooplankton, which are the primary prey of larval fish. The model developed in this study has the potential to improve fisheries management in the GoM.
Fabian Große, Katja Fennel, Haiyan Zhang, and Arnaud Laurent
Biogeosciences, 17, 2701–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2701-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2701-2020, 2020
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In the East China Sea, hypoxia occurs frequently from spring to fall due to high primary production and subsequent decomposition of organic matter. Nitrogen inputs from the Changjiang and the open ocean have been suggested to contribute to hypoxia formation. We used a numerical modelling approach to quantify the relative contributions of these nitrogen sources. We found that the Changjiang dominates, which suggests that nitrogen management in the watershed would improve oxygen conditions.
Liz C. Logan, Sri Hari Krishna Narayanan, Ralf Greve, and Patrick Heimbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1845–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020, 2020
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A new capability has been developed for the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) that enables the generation of derivative code, such as tangent linear or adjoint models, by means of algorithmic differentiation. It relies on the source transformation algorithmic (AD) differentiation tool OpenAD. The reverse mode of AD provides the adjoint model, SICOPOLIS-AD, which may be applied for comprehensive sensitivity analyses as well as gradient-based optimization.
Guillaume Boutin, Camille Lique, Fabrice Ardhuin, Clément Rousset, Claude Talandier, Mickael Accensi, and Fanny Girard-Ardhuin
The Cryosphere, 14, 709–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-709-2020, 2020
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We investigate the interactions of surface ocean waves with sea ice taking place at the interface between the compact sea ice cover and the open ocean. We use a newly developed coupling framework between a wave and an ocean–sea ice numerical model. Our results show how the push on sea ice exerted by waves changes the amount and the location of sea ice melting, with a strong impact on the ocean surface properties close to the ice edge.
Liuqian Yu, Katja Fennel, Bin Wang, Arnaud Laurent, Keith R. Thompson, and Lynn K. Shay
Ocean Sci., 15, 1801–1814, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1801-2019, 2019
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We present a first direct comparison of nonidentical versus identical twin approaches for an ocean data assimilation system. We show that the identical twin approach overestimates the value of assimilating satellite observations and undervalues the benefit of assimilating temperature and salinity profiles. Misleading assessments such as undervaluing the impact of observational assets are problematic and can lead to misguided decisions on balancing investments among different observing assets.
Roshin P. Raj, Sourav Chatterjee, Laurent Bertino, Antonio Turiel, and Marcos Portabella
Ocean Sci., 15, 1729–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1729-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1729-2019, 2019
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In this study we investigated the variability of the Arctic Front (AF), an important biologically productive region in the Norwegian Sea, using a suite of satellite data, atmospheric reanalysis and a regional coupled ocean–sea ice data assimilation system. We show evidence of the two-way interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean at the AF. The North Atlantic Oscillation is found to influence the strength of the AF and may have a profound influence on the region's biological productivity.
Miho Ishizu, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Tomohiko Tsunoda, and Tsuneo Ono
Biogeosciences, 16, 4747–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4747-2019, 2019
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Using water quality data collected at 289 monitoring sites as part of the Water Pollution Control Program, we evaluated the long-term trends of pH in Japanese coastal seawater at ambient temperature from 1978 to 2009. We found that the annual maximum pH, which generally represents the pH of surface waters in winter, had decreased at 75 % of the sites, but had increased at the remaining sites. The annual maximum pH decreased at an average rate of −0.0024 yr−1, with relatively large deviations.
Thomas Holding, Ian G. Ashton, Jamie D. Shutler, Peter E. Land, Philip D. Nightingale, Andrew P. Rees, Ian Brown, Jean-Francois Piolle, Annette Kock, Hermann W. Bange, David K. Woolf, Lonneke Goddijn-Murphy, Ryan Pereira, Frederic Paul, Fanny Girard-Ardhuin, Bertrand Chapron, Gregor Rehder, Fabrice Ardhuin, and Craig J. Donlon
Ocean Sci., 15, 1707–1728, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1707-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1707-2019, 2019
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FluxEngine is an open-source software toolbox designed to allow for the easy and accurate calculation of air–sea gas fluxes. This article describes new functionality and capabilities, which include the ability to calculate fluxes for nitrous oxide and methane, optimisation for running FluxEngine on a stand-alone desktop computer, and extensive new features to support the in situ measurement community. Four research case studies are used to demonstrate these new features.
Rui Sun, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Arthur J. Miller, Matthew R. Mazloff, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Bruce D. Cornuelle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4221–4244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4221-2019, 2019
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A new regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model, SKRIPS, is developed and presented. The oceanic component is the MITgcm and the atmospheric component is the WRF model. The coupler is implemented using ESMF according to NUOPC protocols. SKRIPS is demonstrated by simulating a series of extreme heat events occurring in the Red Sea region. We show that SKRIPS is capable of performing coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations. In addition, the scalability test shows SKRIPS is computationally efficient.
Jiping Xie, Roshin P. Raj, Laurent Bertino, Annette Samuelsen, and Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu
Ocean Sci., 15, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1191-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1191-2019, 2019
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Two gridded sea surface salinity (SSS) products have been derived from the European Space Agency’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission. The uncertainties of these two products in the Arctic are quantified against two SSS products in the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Services, two climatologies, and other in situ data. The results compared with independent in situ data clearly show a common challenge for the six SSS products to represent central Arctic freshwater masses (<24 psu).
Stefano Salon, Gianpiero Cossarini, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Paolo Lazzari, Anna Teruzzi, Cosimo Solidoro, and Alessandro Crise
Ocean Sci., 15, 997–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-997-2019, 2019
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After 10 years of research and development, validated analysis and forecasts of the main parameters of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry (e.g. phytoplankton, nutrients, oxygen, pH, carbon fluxes) at high spatial and temporal resolution are provided in the frame of the EU Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. Along with a traditional skill performance assessment, novel metrics exploiting the Biogeochemical Argo floats data are designed to estimate the forecasts uncertainty.
Oriol Tintó Prims, Mario C. Acosta, Andrew M. Moore, Miguel Castrillo, Kim Serradell, Ana Cortés, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3135–3148, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3135-2019, 2019
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Mixed-precision approaches can provide substantial speed-ups for both computing- and memory-bound codes, requiring little effort. A novel method to enable modern and legacy codes to benefit from a reduction of precision without sacrificing accuracy is presented. Using a precision emulator and a divide-and-conquer algorithm it identifies the parts that cannot handle reduced precision and the ones that can. The method has been proved using two ocean models, NEMO and ROMS, with promising results.
Pablo Lorente, Marcos García-Sotillo, Arancha Amo-Baladrón, Roland Aznar, Bruno Levier, José C. Sánchez-Garrido, Simone Sammartino, Álvaro de Pascual-Collar, Guillaume Reffray, Cristina Toledano, and Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul
Ocean Sci., 15, 967–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-967-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-967-2019, 2019
Marc Bocquet, Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, and Laurent Bertino
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 143–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-143-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-143-2019, 2019
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This paper describes an innovative way to use data assimilation to infer the dynamics of a physical system from its observation only. The method can operate with noisy and partial observation of the physical system. It acts as a deep learning technique specialised to dynamical models without the need for machine learning tools. The method is successfully tested on chaotic dynamical systems: the Lorenz-63, Lorenz-96, and Kuramoto–Sivashinski models and a two-scale Lorenz model.
Johannes Pein, Annika Eisele, Richard Hofmeister, Tina Sanders, Ute Daewel, Emil V. Stanev, Justus van Beusekom, Joanna Staneva, and Corinna Schrum
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-265, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The Elbe estuary is subject to vigorous tidal forcing from the sea side and considerable biological inputs from the land side. Our 3D numerical coupled physical-biogeochemical integrates these forcing signals and provides highly realistic hindcasts of the associated dynamics. Model simulations show that the freshwater part of Elbe estuary is inhabited by plankton. According to simulations these organism play a key role in converting organic inputs into nitrate, the major inorganic nutrient.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, John Siddorn, Robert R. King, Marina Tonani, Andrew Saulter, Peter Sykes, Anne-Christine Pequignet, Graham P. Weedon, Tamzin Palmer, Joanna Staneva, and Lucy Bricheno
Ocean Sci., 15, 669–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, 2019
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Forecasts of ocean temperature, salinity, currents, and sea height can be improved by linking state-of-the-art ocean and wave models, so that they can interact to better represent the real world. We test this approach in an ocean model of north-west Europe which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state. The intention is to implement the system described in this study for operational use so that improved information can be provided to users of ocean forecast data.
Álvaro de Pascual-Collar, Marcos G. Sotillo, Bruno Levier, Roland Aznar, Pablo Lorente, Arancha Amo-Baladrón, and Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul
Ocean Sci., 15, 565–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-565-2019, 2019
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The Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is a dense water mass originated in the Gibraltar Straight. The CMEMS IBI ocean reanalysis is used to provide a detailed view of the circulation and mixing processes of MOW near the Iberian and African Continental slopes. This work emphasizes the relevance of the complex bathymetric features defining the circulation and variability processes of MOW in this region.
Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, Marc Bocquet, and Laurent Bertino
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-136, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We explore the possibility of combining data assimilation with machine learning. We introduce a new hybrid method for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting its future states. Numerical experiments have been carried out using the chaotic Lorenz 96 model, proving both the convergence of the hybrid method and its statistical skills including short-term forecasting and emulation of the long-term dynamics.
Katja Fennel, Simone Alin, Leticia Barbero, Wiley Evans, Timothée Bourgeois, Sarah Cooley, John Dunne, Richard A. Feely, Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Xinping Hu, Steven Lohrenz, Frank Muller-Karger, Raymond Najjar, Lisa Robbins, Elizabeth Shadwick, Samantha Siedlecki, Nadja Steiner, Adrienne Sutton, Daniela Turk, Penny Vlahos, and Zhaohui Aleck Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 1281–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, 2019
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We review and synthesize available information on coastal ocean carbon fluxes around North America (NA). There is overwhelming evidence, compiled and discussed here, that the NA coastal margins act as a sink. Our synthesis shows the great diversity in processes driving carbon fluxes in different coastal regions, highlights remaining gaps in observations and models, and discusses current and anticipated future trends with respect to carbon fluxes and acidification.
Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth and Joanna Staneva
Ocean Sci., 15, 249–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-249-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-249-2019, 2019
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Errors of observations and numerical model data are analysed with a focus on heterogeneous coastal areas. An extension of the triple collocation method is proposed, which takes into account gradients in the collocation of datasets separated by distances which may not be acceptable for a nearest-neigbour approximation, but still be feasible for linear or higher order interpolations. The technique is applied to wave height data from in situ stations, models, and the Sentinel-3A altimeter.
Romain Rainaud, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Guillaume Reffray, Bruno Levier, Stéphane LawChune, Pablo Lorente, and Cristina Toledano
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-165, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
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This paper highlight the adjustment of the wave physics in order to improve the surface stress and thus the ocean/wave coupling dedicated to Iberian Biscay and Ireland domain. The validation with altimeters wave data during the year 2014 has shown a slight improvement of the significant wave height. Statistical analysis of the results of the new and old versions of the wave model MFWAM is examined for the three main ocean regions of the IBI domain.
Romain Rainaud, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Guillaume Reffray, Bruno Levier, Stéphane Law-Chune, Pablo Lorente, and Cristina Toledano
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-167, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
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This work highlights the relevance of coupling wave model with ocean model in order to improve key surface ocean parameters and in general to better describe the ocean circulation at small and large scale.
The results focus on the Iberian Biscay and Ireland ocean region with fine grid resolution of 2.5 km for the ocean model. The main conclusion is the improvement of wave physics induces a better ocean mixing at the upper layer and a positive impact for sea surface height in storm events.
Angela M. Kuhn, Katja Fennel, and Ilana Berman-Frank
Biogeosciences, 15, 7379–7401, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7379-2018, 2018
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Recent studies demonstrate that marine N2 fixation can be carried out without light. However, direct measurements of N2 fixation in dark environments are relatively scarce. This study uses a model that represents biogeochemical cycles at a deep-ocean location in the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea). Different model versions are used to test assumptions about N2 fixers. Relaxing light limitation for marine N2 fixers improved the similarity between model results and observations of deep nitrate and oxygen.
Anne Wiese, Joanna Staneva, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Arno Behrens, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Jean-Raymond Bidlot
Ocean Sci., 14, 1503–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1503-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1503-2018, 2018
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The increase of data quality of wind and wave measurements provided by the new Sentinel-3A satellite in coastal areas is demonstrated compared to measurements of older satellites with in situ data and spectral wave model simulations. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the wave model to wind forcing is evaluated using data with different temporal and spatial resolution, where an hourly temporal resolution is necessary to represent the peak of extreme events better.
Pedro Veras Guimarães, Fabrice Ardhuin, Peter Sutherland, Mickael Accensi, Michel Hamon, Yves Pérignon, Jim Thomson, Alvise Benetazzo, and Pierre Ferrant
Ocean Sci., 14, 1449–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1449-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1449-2018, 2018
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This paper introduces a new design of drifting buoy. The "surface kinematics buoy'' (SKIB) is particularly optimized for measuring wave–current interactions, including relatively short wave components, from 0.09 to 1 Hz, that are important for air–sea interactions and remote-sensing applications. The capability of this instrument is compared to other sensors, and the ability to measure current-induced wave variations is illustrated with data acquired in a macro-tidal coastal environment.
Jiping Xie, François Counillon, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 3671–3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3671-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3671-2018, 2018
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We use the winter sea-ice thickness dataset CS2SMOS merged from two satellites SMOS and CryoSat-2 for assimilation into an ice–ocean reanalysis of the Arctic, complemented by several other ocean and sea-ice measurements, using an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The errors of sea-ice thickness are reduced by 28% and the improvements persists through the summer when observations are unavailable. Improvements of ice drift are however limited to the Central Arctic.
Antonio Bonaduce, Mounir Benkiran, Elisabeth Remy, Pierre Yves Le Traon, and Gilles Garric
Ocean Sci., 14, 1405–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, 2018
Krysten Rutherford and Katja Fennel
Ocean Sci., 14, 1207–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1207-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1207-2018, 2018
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Using a regional model of the northwestern North Atlantic shelves, we calculate transport timescales and pathways in order to understand the transport processes that underlie the rapid oxygen loss, air–sea CO2 flux, and supply of plankton seed populations on the Scotian Shelf. Study results highlight the limited connectivity between the Scotian Shelf and adjacent slope waters; instead, the dominant southwestward currents bring Grand Banks and Gulf of St. Lawrence waters to the Scotian Shelf.
Jean-Michel Lellouche, Eric Greiner, Olivier Le Galloudec, Gilles Garric, Charly Regnier, Marie Drevillon, Mounir Benkiran, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Florent Gasparin, Olga Hernandez, Bruno Levier, Yann Drillet, Elisabeth Remy, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
Ocean Sci., 14, 1093–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, 2018
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In the coming decades, a strong growth of the ocean economy is expected. Scientific advances in operational oceanography will play a crucial role in addressing many environmental challenges and in the development of ocean-related economic activities. In this context, remarkable improvements have been achieved with the current Mercator Ocean system. 3-D water masses, sea level, sea ice and currents have been improved, and thus major oceanic variables are hard to distinguish from the data.
Andrew R. Porter, Jeremy Appleyard, Mike Ashworth, Rupert W. Ford, Jason Holt, Hedong Liu, and Graham D. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3447–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3447-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3447-2018, 2018
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Developing computer models in the earth-system domain is a complex and expensive process that can have a duration measured in years. The supercomputers required to run these models, however, are evolving fast with a proliferation of technologies and associated programming models. As a result there is a need that models be "performance portable" between different supercomputers. This paper investigates a way of doing this through a separation of the concerns of performance and natural science.
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez, Guotu Li, Paul Martin Mai, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Omar M. Knio
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3071–3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018, 2018
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One of the most important challenges seismologists and earthquake engineers face is reliably estimating ground motion in an area prone to large damaging earthquakes. This study aimed at better understanding the relationship between characteristics of geological faults (e.g., hypocenter location, rupture size/location, etc.) and resulting ground motion, via statistical analysis of a rupture simulation model. This study provides important insight on ground-motion responses to geological faults.
Takuya Nakanowatari, Jun Inoue, Kazutoshi Sato, Laurent Bertino, Jiping Xie, Mio Matsueda, Akio Yamagami, Takeshi Sugimura, Hironori Yabuki, and Natsuhiko Otsuka
The Cryosphere, 12, 2005–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018, 2018
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Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was examined, based on TOPAZ4 forecast data. Statistical examination indicates that the estimate drops abruptly at 4 days, which is related to dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations such as an Arctic cyclone. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which represents most of the remaining prediction.
Katja Fennel and Arnaud Laurent
Biogeosciences, 15, 3121–3131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3121-2018, 2018
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Increasing human-derived nutrient inputs to coastal oceans lead to spreading dead zones around the world. Here a biogeochemical model for the northern Gulf of Mexico, where nutrients from the Mississippi River create the largest dead zone in North American coastal waters, is used for the first time to show the effects of single and dual nutrient reductions of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Significant reductions in N or N&P load would be required to significantly reduce hypoxia in this system.
Fabrice Ardhuin, Yevgueny Aksenov, Alvise Benetazzo, Laurent Bertino, Peter Brandt, Eric Caubet, Bertrand Chapron, Fabrice Collard, Sophie Cravatte, Jean-Marc Delouis, Frederic Dias, Gérald Dibarboure, Lucile Gaultier, Johnny Johannessen, Anton Korosov, Georgy Manucharyan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Melisa Menendez, Goulven Monnier, Alexis Mouche, Frédéric Nouguier, George Nurser, Pierre Rampal, Ad Reniers, Ernesto Rodriguez, Justin Stopa, Céline Tison, Clément Ubelmann, Erik van Sebille, and Jiping Xie
Ocean Sci., 14, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, 2018
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The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale (SKIM) monitoring mission is a proposal for a future satellite that is designed to measure ocean currents and waves. Using a Doppler radar, the accurate measurement of currents requires the removal of the mean velocity due to ocean wave motions. This paper describes the main processing steps needed to produce currents and wave data from the radar measurements. With this technique, SKIM can provide unprecedented coverage and resolution, over the global ocean.
Bryan N. Lawrence, Michael Rezny, Reinhard Budich, Peter Bauer, Jörg Behrens, Mick Carter, Willem Deconinck, Rupert Ford, Christopher Maynard, Steven Mullerworth, Carlos Osuna, Andrew Porter, Kim Serradell, Sophie Valcke, Nils Wedi, and Simon Wilson
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1799–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1799-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1799-2018, 2018
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Weather and climate models consist of complex software evolving in response to both scientific requirements and changing computing hardware. After years of relatively stable hardware, more diversity is arriving. It is possible that this hardware diversity and the pace of change may lead to an inability for modelling groups to manage their software development. This
chasmbetween aspiration and reality may need to be bridged by large community efforts rather than traditional
in-houseefforts.
Jonathan Lemay, Helmuth Thomas, Susanne E. Craig, William J. Burt, Katja Fennel, and Blair J. W. Greenan
Biogeosciences, 15, 2111–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2111-2018, 2018
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We report a detailed mechanistic investigation of the impact of Hurricane Arthur on the CO2 cycling on the Scotian Shelf. We can show that in contrast to common thinking, the deepening of the surface during the summer months can lead to increased CO2 uptake as carbon-poor waters from subsurface water are brought up to the surface. Only during prolonged storm events is the deepening of the mixed layer strong enough to bring the (expected) carbon-rich water to the surface.
Matthias Rabatel, Pierre Rampal, Alberto Carrassi, Laurent Bertino, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018, 2018
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Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing physics in models and uncertainties on model inputs. We investigate how the new sea ice model neXtSIM is sensitive to uncertainties in the winds. We highlight and quantify the role of the internal forces in the ice on this sensitivity and show that neXtSIM is better at predicting sea ice drift than a free-drift (without internal forces) ice model and is a skilful tool for search and rescue operations.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Charles Peureux, Alvise Benetazzo, and Fabrice Ardhuin
Ocean Sci., 14, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-41-2018, 2018
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Little is known on the short ocean wave (1 to 20 m wave length typically) directional distribution. It has been measured from a platform in the Adriatic Sea using a three-dimensional reconstruction technique, used for the first time for this purpose. In this record, while longer waves propagate along the wind direction, shorter waves have been found to propagate mainly along two oblique directions, more and more separated towards smaller scales.
Simon Verrier, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Elisabeth Remy
Ocean Sci., 13, 1077–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-1077-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-1077-2017, 2017
Nat Wilson, Fiammetta Straneo, and Patrick Heimbach
The Cryosphere, 11, 2773–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2773-2017, 2017
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We estimate submarine melt rates from ice tongues in northern Greenland using WorldView satellite imagery. At Ryder Glacier, melt is strongly concentrated around regions where subglacier channels likely enter the fjord. At the 79 North Glacier, we find a large volume imbalance in which melting removes a greater quantity of ice than is replaced by inflow over the grounding line. This leads us to suggest that a reduction in the spatial extent of the ice tongue is possible over the coming decade.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
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This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Khan Zaib Jadoon, Muhammad Umer Altaf, Matthew Francis McCabe, Ibrahim Hoteit, Nisar Muhammad, Davood Moghadas, and Lutz Weihermüller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5375–5383, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5375-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5375-2017, 2017
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In this study electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements were used to estimate soil salinity in an agriculture field irrigated with a drip irrigation system. Electromagnetic model parameters and uncertainty were estimated using adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Application of the MCMC-based inversion to the synthetic and field measurements demonstrates that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
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Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Burkard Baschek, Friedhelm Schroeder, Holger Brix, Rolf Riethmüller, Thomas H. Badewien, Gisbert Breitbach, Bernd Brügge, Franciscus Colijn, Roland Doerffer, Christiane Eschenbach, Jana Friedrich, Philipp Fischer, Stefan Garthe, Jochen Horstmann, Hajo Krasemann, Katja Metfies, Lucas Merckelbach, Nino Ohle, Wilhelm Petersen, Daniel Pröfrock, Rüdiger Röttgers, Michael Schlüter, Jan Schulz, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Emil Stanev, Joanna Staneva, Christian Winter, Kai Wirtz, Jochen Wollschläger, Oliver Zielinski, and Friedwart Ziemer
Ocean Sci., 13, 379–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-379-2017, 2017
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The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the Arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the heavily used German Bight in the North Sea. The automated observing and modelling system is designed to monitor real-time conditions, to provide short-term forecasts and data products, and to assess the impact of anthropogenically induced change.
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, 2017
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SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Kathrin Wahle, Joanna Staneva, Wolfgang Koch, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, and Emil V. Stanev
Ocean Sci., 13, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-289-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-289-2017, 2017
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Reduction of wave forecasting errors is a challenge, especially in dynamically complicated coastal ocean areas such as the southern part of the North Sea area. We study the effects of coupling between an atmospheric and two nested-grid wind wave models. Comparisons with data from in situ and satellite altimeter observations indicate that two-way coupling improves the simulation of wind and wave parameters of the model and justifies its implementation for both operational and climate simulation.
Julia M. Moriarty, Courtney K. Harris, Katja Fennel, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Kehui Xu, and Christophe Rabouille
Biogeosciences, 14, 1919–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1919-2017, 2017
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In coastal aquatic environments, resuspension of sediment and organic material from the seabed into the overlying water can impact biogeochemistry. Here, we used a novel modeling approach to quantify this impact for the Rhône River delta. In the model, resuspension increased oxygen consumption during individual resuspension events, and when results were averaged over 2 months. This implies that observations and models that only represent calm conditions may underestimate net oxygen consumption.
Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Querin, Cosimo Solidoro, Gianmaria Sannino, Paolo Lazzari, Valeria Di Biagio, and Giorgio Bolzon
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1423–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1423-2017, 2017
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The BFMCOUPLER (v1.0) is a coupling scheme that links the MITgcm and BFM models for ocean biogeochemistry simulations. The online coupling is based on an open-source code characterizd by a modular structure. Modularity preserves the potentials of the two models, allowing for a sustainable programming effort to handle future evolutions in the two codes. The BFMCOUPLER code is released along with an idealized problem (a cyclonic gyre in a mid-latitude closed basin).
Alessandro D'Anca, Laura Conte, Paola Nassisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretì, Marco Mancini, Alessandra Nuzzo, Maria Mirto, Gianandrea Mannarini, Giovanni Coppini, Sandro Fiore, and Giovanni Aloisio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 171–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, 2017
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Updated situational sea awareness requires an advanced technological system to make data available for decision makers, improving the capacity of intervention and supporting users in managing emergency situations due to natural hazards. The TESSA data platform meets the request of near-real-time access to heterogeneous data with different accuracy, resolution or degrees of aggregation providing efficient and secure data access and strong support to operational oceanographic high-level services.
Jiping Xie, Laurent Bertino, François Counillon, Knut A. Lisæter, and Pavel Sakov
Ocean Sci., 13, 123–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-123-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-123-2017, 2017
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The Arctic Ocean plays an important role in the global climate system, but the concerned interpretation about its changes is severely hampered by the sparseness of the observations of sea ice and ocean. The focus of this study is to provide a quantitative assessment of the performance of the TOPAZ4 reanalysis for ocean and sea ice variables in the pan-Arctic region (north of 63 °N) in order to guide the user through its skills and limitations.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
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Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
William J. Crawford, Polly J. Smith, Ralph F. Milliff, Jerome Fiechter, Christopher K. Wikle, Christopher A. Edwards, and Andrew M. Moore
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 171–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-171-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-171-2016, 2016
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We present a method for estimating intrinsic model error in a model of the California Current System. The estimated model error covariance matrix is used in the weak constraint formulation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System, four-dimensional variational data assimilation system, and comparison of the circulation estimates computed in this way show demonstrable improvement to those computed in the strong constraint formulation, where intrinsic model error is not taken into account.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
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A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Vasco M. N. C. S. Vieira, Pavel Jurus, Emanuela Clementi, Heidi Pettersson, and Marcos Mateus
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Joanna Staneva, Kathrin Wahle, Wolfgang Koch, Arno Behrens, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Emil V. Stanev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2373–2389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2373-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2373-2016, 2016
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This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. Considering a wave-dependent approach and baroclinicity, the surge is significantly enhanced in the coastal areas and the model results are closer to observations, especially during the extreme storm.
Jiping Xie, François Counillon, Laurent Bertino, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze, and Lars Kaleschke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2745–2761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2745-2016, 2016
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As a potentially operational daily product, the SMOS-Ice can improve the statements of sea ice thickness and concentration. In this study, focusing on the SMOS-Ice data assimilated into the TOPAZ system, the quantitative evaluation for the impacts and the concerned comparison with the present observation system are valuable to understand the further improvement of the accuracy of operational ocean forecasting system.
Mohamad E. Gharamti, Johan Valstar, Gijs Janssen, Annemieke Marsman, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4561–4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4561-2016, 2016
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The paper addresses the issue of sampling errors when using the ensemble Kalman filter, in particular its hybrid and second-order formulations. The presented work is aimed at estimating concentration and biodegradation rates of subsurface contaminants at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Overall, we found that accounting for both forecast and observation sampling errors in the joint data assimilation system helps recover more accurate state and parameter estimates.
Emil V. Stanev, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Sebastian Grashorn, Arno Behrens, Wolfgang Koch, and Johannes Pein
Ocean Sci., 12, 1105–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1105-2016, 2016
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This paper describes coastal ocean forecasting practices exemplified for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. It identifies new challenges, most of which are associated with the nonlinear behavior of coastal oceans. It describes the assimilation of remote sensing, in situ and HF radar data, prediction of wind waves and storm surges, as well as applications to search and rescue operations. Seamless applications to coastal and estuarine modeling are also presented.
Simona Aracri, Katrin Schroeder, Jacopo Chiggiato, Harry Bryden, Elaine McDonagh, Simon Josey, Yann Hello, and Mireno Borghini
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2016-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2016-65, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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The abyssal velocity of the Northern Current, in the north-western Mediterranean has been estimated using for the first time MERMAIDs, i.e. submarine drifting instruments that record seismic waves. In this study the Northern Current shows an intense activity even in deep layers of the water column. Through pseudo-eulerian statistics different components of the observed variability are analysed and described, revealing the turbulent nature of the Liguro-Provençal basin abyssal circulation.
Bàrbara Barceló-Llull, Evan Mason, Arthur Capet, and Ananda Pascual
Ocean Sci., 12, 1003–1011, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1003-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1003-2016, 2016
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Vertical velocity in the ocean makes an important contribution to the modulation of marine ecosystems through its impact on fluxes of nutrients and phytoplankton. Here, we estimate full 3-D current velocity fields from an observation-based data product. The 3-D currents are used to force a set of particle-tracking (Lagrangian) experiments. The Lagrangian results show that vertical motions induce local increases in nitrate uptake reaching up to 30 %.
Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih, Mohamad El Gharamti, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3289–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, 2016
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We derive a new dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for state-parameter estimation. The derivation is based on the one-step-ahead smoothing formulation, and unlike the standard dual EnKF, it is consistent with the Bayesian formulation of the state-parameter estimation problem and uses the observations in both state smoothing and forecast. This is shown to enhance the performance and robustness of the dual EnKF in experiments conducted with a two-dimensional synthetic groundwater aquifer model.
Zuo Xue, Ruoying He, Katja Fennel, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven Lohrenz, Wei-Jen Huang, Hanqin Tian, Wei Ren, and Zhengchen Zang
Biogeosciences, 13, 4359–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, 2016
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In this study we used a state-of-the-science coupled physical–biogeochemical model to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of sea surface CO2 concentration in the Gulf of Mexico. Our model revealed the Gulf was a net CO2 sink with a flux of 1.11 ± 0.84 × 1012 mol C yr−1. We also found that biological uptake was the primary driver making the Gulf an overall CO2 sink and that the carbon flux in the northern Gulf was very susceptible to changes in river inputs.
Justin E. Stopa, Fabrice Ardhuin, and Fanny Girard-Ardhuin
The Cryosphere, 10, 1605–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1605-2016, 2016
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Satellite observations show the Arctic sea ice has decreased the last 30 years. From our wave model hindcast and satellite altimeter datasets we observe profound increasing wave heights, which are caused by the loss of sea ice and not the driving winds. If ice-free conditions persist later into fall, then regions like the Beaufort–Chukchi Sea will be prone to developing larger waves since the driving winds are strong this time of year.
Joanna Staneva, Kathrin Wahle, Heinz Günther, and Emil Stanev
Ocean Sci., 12, 797–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-797-2016, 2016
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This study addresses the impact of coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the quality of coastal ocean predicting systems. This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales. The improved skill of the coupled forecasts compared to the non-coupled ones, in particular during extreme events, justifies the further enhancements of coastal operational systems by including wind wave models.
Momme Butenschön, James Clark, John N. Aldridge, Julian Icarus Allen, Yuri Artioli, Jeremy Blackford, Jorn Bruggeman, Pierre Cazenave, Stefano Ciavatta, Susan Kay, Gennadi Lessin, Sonja van Leeuwen, Johan van der Molen, Lee de Mora, Luca Polimene, Sevrine Sailley, Nicholas Stephens, and Ricardo Torres
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1293–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, 2016
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ERSEM 15.06 is a model for marine biogeochemistry and the lower trophic levels of the marine food web. It comprises a pelagic and benthic sub-model including the microbial food web and the major biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate, and iron using dynamic stochiometry. Further features include modules for the carbonate system and calcification. We present full mathematical descriptions of all elements along with examples at various scales up to 3-D applications.
Arthur Capet, Emil V. Stanev, Jean-Marie Beckers, James W. Murray, and Marilaure Grégoire
Biogeosciences, 13, 1287–1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1287-2016, 2016
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We show that the Black Sea oxygen inventory has decreased by 44 % from 1955 to 2015, while oxygen penetration depth decreased from 140 to 90 m. A transient increase of the oxygen inventory during 1985–1995 supported the perception of a stable oxic interface and of a general recovery of the Black Sea after a strong eutrophication phase (1970–1990). Instead, we show that ongoing high oxygen consumption was masked by high ventilation rates, which are now limited by atmospheric warming.
V. Turpin, E. Remy, and P. Y. Le Traon
Ocean Sci., 12, 257–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-257-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-257-2016, 2016
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Argo profiling floats are continuously sampling the world ocean, providing temperature and salinity profiles of up to 2000 m depths. This article addresses the impact of the current Argo array on real-time ocean analyses and forecasts. One-year observing system experiments were carried out with the 0.25° global Mercator Ocean monitoring and forecasting system. The improvement due to the assimilation of the Argo profiles is estimated globally and regionally, showing a significant positive impact.
A. Laurent, K. Fennel, R. Wilson, J. Lehrter, and R. Devereux
Biogeosciences, 13, 77–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-77-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-77-2016, 2016
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In low oxygen environments, the lack of oxygen influences sediment biogeochemistry and in turn sediment-water fluxes. These nonlinear interactions are often missing from biogeochemical circulation models because sediment models are computationally expensive. A method for parameterizing realistic sediment-water fluxes is presented and applied to the Mississippi River Dead Zone where high primary production, stimulated by excess nutrient loads, promotes low bottom water conditions in summer.
F. Ninove, P.-Y. Le Traon, E. Remy, and S. Guinehut
Ocean Sci., 12, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1-2016, 2016
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Argo floats are one of the main components of the in situ observation network in the ocean. Nowadays, more than 3500 profiling floats are sampling the world ocean. In this study, they are used to characterize spatial scales of temperature and salinity variations from the surface down to 1500m. The scales appear to be anisotropic and vary from about 100km at high latitudes to 700km in the Indian and Pacific equatorial and tropical regions.
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
F. Dupont, S. Higginson, R. Bourdallé-Badie, Y. Lu, F. Roy, G. C. Smith, J.-F. Lemieux, G. Garric, and F. Davidson
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1577–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1577-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1577-2015, 2015
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1/12th degree resolution runs of Arctic--Atlantic were compared for the period 2003-2009. We found good representation of sea surface height and of its statistics; model temperature and salinity in general agreement with in situ measurements, but upper ocean properties in Beaufort Sea are challenging; distribution of concentration and volume of sea ice is improved when slowing down the ice and further improvements require better initial conditions and modifications to mixing.
L. Yu, K. Fennel, A. Laurent, M. C. Murrell, and J. C. Lehrter
Biogeosciences, 12, 2063–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2063-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2063-2015, 2015
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Our study suggests that a combination of physical processes and sediment oxygen consumption determine the spatial extent and temporal dynamics of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf. In summer, stratification isolates oxygen-rich surface waters from hypoxic bottom waters; oxygen outgasses to the atmosphere at this time. A large fraction of primary production occurs below the pycnocline in summer, but this primary production does not strongly affect the spatial extent of hypoxic bottom waters.
G. Cossarini, P. Lazzari, and C. Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 12, 1647–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1647-2015, 2015
K.-K. Liu, C.-K. Kang, T. Kobari, H. Liu, C. Rabouille, and K. Fennel
Biogeosciences, 11, 7061–7075, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7061-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7061-2014, 2014
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This paper provides background info on the East China Sea, Japan/East Sea and South China Sea and highlights major findings in the special issue on their biogeochemical conditions and ecosystem functions. The three seas are subject to strong impacts from human activities and/or climate forcing. Because these continental margins sustain arguably some of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world, changes in these stressed ecosystems may threaten the livelihood of a large human population.
K. von Schuckmann, J.-B. Sallée, D. Chambers, P.-Y. Le Traon, C. Cabanes, F. Gaillard, S. Speich, and M. Hamon
Ocean Sci., 10, 547–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014, 2014
T. Waseda, K. In, K. Kiyomatsu, H. Tamura, Y. Miyazawa, and K. Iyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 945–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-945-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-945-2014, 2014
Z. Xue, R. He, K. Fennel, W.-J. Cai, S. Lohrenz, and C. Hopkinson
Biogeosciences, 10, 7219–7234, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7219-2013, 2013
P. Y. Le Traon
Ocean Sci., 9, 901–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-901-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-901-2013, 2013
Y. Miyazawa, Y. Masumoto, S. M. Varlamov, T. Miyama, M. Takigawa, M. Honda, and T. Saino
Biogeosciences, 10, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2349-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2349-2013, 2013
W. J. Burt, H. Thomas, K. Fennel, and E. Horne
Biogeosciences, 10, 53–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-53-2013, 2013
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