Articles | Volume 3-slre1
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
29 Oct 2024
| SLRE1 | Chapter 4
| 29 Oct 2024 | SLRE1 | Chapter 4
Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, 31400, France
Roderik van de Wal
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands
Angel Amores
Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA, UIB-CSIC), Esporles, 07190, Spain
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, 07122, Spain
Arne Arns
Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Rostock, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 6, 18059 Rostock, Germany
Alisée A. Chaigneau
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, 31400, France
IHCantabria – Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Isabel Torres 15, 39011 Santander, Spain
Irina Dinu
Department of Interdisciplinary Studies and Coastal Management, Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), Bucharest, 024053, Romania
Ivan D. Haigh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Tim H. J. Hermans
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Piero Lionello
Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences and Technologies, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
Marta Marcos
Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA, UIB-CSIC), Esporles, 07190, Spain
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, 07122, Spain
H. E. Markus Meier
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Benoit Meyssignac
LEGOS (CNES/CNRS/IRD/UT3), Université de Toulouse, 31400 Toulouse, France
Matthew D. Palmer
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3 PB, United Kingdom
School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UH, United Kingdom
Ronja Reese
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Ellison Place, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 8ST, United Kingdom
Matthew J. R. Simpson
Norwegian Mapping Authority, Geodetic Institute, Hønefoss, 3511, Norway
Aimée B. A. Slangen
Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Yerseke, 4401 NT, the Netherlands
Related authors
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Fabrice Hernandez, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, and Angelique Melet
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
An historical review over the last three decades on intercomparison projects of ocean numerical reanalysis or forecast is first proposed. From this, main issues and lessons learned are discussed in order to propose an overview of best practices and key considerations to facilitate intercomparison activities in operational oceanography.
Angelique Melet, Begoña Pérez Gómez, and Pascal Matte
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to climate changes impacts. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, that can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. This paper presents regional projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe produced with high-resolution models (~6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Stéphane Law-Chune, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf
Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and can drive coastal marine hazards such as coastal flooding. In this paper, by using numerical modeling along the European Atlantic coastline, we assess how present and future wave characteristics are impacted by sea level changes. For example, at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, extreme significant wave heights are higher by up to +40 % due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Guillaume Reffray, Aurore Voldoire, and Angélique Melet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Projections of coastal sea level changes are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and have significantly developed in recent years. In this paper, the objective is to provide high-resolution (6 km) projections of sea level changes in the northeastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe. For that purpose, a regional model is used to refine existing coarse global projections.
Caroline Jacoba van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Fabrice Hernandez, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, and Angelique Melet
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
An historical review over the last three decades on intercomparison projects of ocean numerical reanalysis or forecast is first proposed. From this, main issues and lessons learned are discussed in order to propose an overview of best practices and key considerations to facilitate intercomparison activities in operational oceanography.
Florence Marti, Benoit Meyssignac, Victor Rousseau, Michaël Ablain, Robin Fraudeau, Alejandro Blazquez, and Sébastien Fourest
State Planet, 4-osr8, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-3-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As space geodetic observations are used to monitor the global ocean heat content change, they allow estimating the Earth energy imbalance (EEI). Over 1993–2022, the space geodetic EEI estimate shows a positive trend of 0.29 W m−2 per decade, indicating accelerated warming of the ocean in line with other independent estimates. The study highlights the importance of comparing various estimates and their uncertainties to reliably assess EEI changes.
Angelique Melet, Begoña Pérez Gómez, and Pascal Matte
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to climate changes impacts. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, that can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial cycle duration changed from 41.000 to 100.000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice-sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation, and simple ice-climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Joshua Green, Ivan Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. Van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-271, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-271, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a data set of 712 Holocene water-level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Daniel Francis James Gunning, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth’s orbit. We demonstrate ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth’s climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth’s most recent cold extreme- the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Nil Carrion-Bertran, Albert Falqués, Francesca Ribas, Daniel Calvete, Rinse de Swart, Ruth Durán, Candela Marco-Peretó, Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Tim Toomey, Àngels Fernández-Mora, and Jorge Guillén
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity to the wave and sea-level forcing sources in predicting a 6-month embayed beach evolution is assessed using two different morphodynamic models. After a successful model calibration using in situ data, other sources are applied. The wave source choice is critical: hindcast data provide wrong results due to an angle bias, whilst the correct dynamics are recovered with the wave conditions from an offshore buoy. The use of different sea-level sources gives no significant differences.
Michaël Ablain, Noémie Lalau, Benoit Meyssignac, Robin Fraudeau, Anne Barnoud, Gérald Dibarboure, Alejandro Egido, and Craig James Donlon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1802, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel cross-validation method to assess the instrumental stability in sea level trends. The method involves implementing a second tandem flight phase between two successive altimeter missions a few years after the first. The trend in systematic instrumental differences made during the two tandem phases can be estimated below ±0.1 mm/yr (16–84 % confidence level) on a global scale, for time intervals between the tandem phases of four years or more.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves storm surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in storm surge estimates.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-851, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates into an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 meters globally.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. This paper presents regional projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe produced with high-resolution models (~6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution, which can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice, and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of critical access depths on basal melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that connect the deeper open ocean and the ice-shelf cavity. We detect 'prominent' oceanic gateways in some Antarctic regions and estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Victor Rousseau, Robin Fraudeau, Matthew Hammond, Odilon Joël Houndegnonto, Michaël Ablain, Alejandro Blazquez, Fransisco Mir Calafat, Damien Desbruyères, Giuseppe Foti, William Llovel, Florence Marti, Benoît Meyssignac, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-236, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of regional Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is crucial for climate analysis and future climate predictions. In our study, we accurately estimate regional OHC changes in the Atlantic Ocean using satellite and in situ data. Findings reveal significant warming in the Atlantic basin from 2002 to 2020 with a mean trend of 0.17W/m², representing 230 times the power of global nuclear plants. The product has also been successfully validated in the North Atlantic basin using in situ data.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Stéphane Law-Chune, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf
Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and can drive coastal marine hazards such as coastal flooding. In this paper, by using numerical modeling along the European Atlantic coastline, we assess how present and future wave characteristics are impacted by sea level changes. For example, at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, extreme significant wave heights are higher by up to +40 % due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Víctor Malagón-Santos, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Tim H. J. Hermans, Sönke Dangendorf, Marta Marcos, and Nicola Maher
Ocean Sci., 19, 499–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-499-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change will alter heat and freshwater fluxes as well as ocean circulation, driving local changes in sea level. This sea-level change component is known as ocean dynamic sea level (DSL), and it is usually projected using computationally expensive global climate models. Statistical models are a cheaper alternative for projecting DSL but may contain significant errors. Here, we partly remove those errors (driven by internal climate variability) by using pattern recognition techniques.
Adrien Guérou, Benoit Meyssignac, Pierre Prandi, Michaël Ablain, Aurélien Ribes, and François Bignalet-Cazalet
Ocean Sci., 19, 431–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-431-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the latest satellite observations published by the French space agency CNES, we present the current state of the sea level at the scale of the planet and assess its rise and acceleration over the past 29 years. To support scientific research we provide updated estimations of our confidence in our estimations and highlight key technological and scientific fields. Making progress on that will help to better characterize the sea level in the future.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Carolina M. L. Camargo, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Tim H. J. Hermans, Eike M. Schütt, Marta Marcos, Ismael Hernandez-Carrasco, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
Ocean Sci., 19, 17–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-17-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-level change is mainly caused by variations in the ocean’s temperature and salinity and land ice melting. Here, we quantify the contribution of the different drivers to the regional sea-level change. We apply machine learning techniques to identify regions that have similar sea-level variability. These regions reduce the observational uncertainty that has limited the regional sea-level budget so far and highlight how large-scale ocean circulation controls regional sea-level change.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Matthias Gröger, Manja Placke, H. E. Markus Meier, Florian Börgel, Sandra-Esther Brunnabend, Cyril Dutheil, Ulf Gräwe, Magnus Hieronymus, Thomas Neumann, Hagen Radtke, Semjon Schimanke, Jian Su, and Germo Väli
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8613–8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of oceanographic climate data from different models often suffer from different model setups, forcing fields, and output of variables. This paper provides a protocol to harmonize these elements to set up multidecadal simulations for the Baltic Sea, a marginal sea in Europe. First results are shown from six different model simulations from four different model platforms. Topical studies for upwelling, marine heat waves, and stratification are also assessed.
Carolina M. L. Camargo, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Tim H. J. Hermans, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1351–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mass loss from Antarctica, Greenland and glaciers and variations in land water storage cause sea-level changes. Here, we characterize the regional trends within these sea-level contributions, taking into account mass variations since 1993. We take a comprehensive approach to determining the uncertainties of these sea-level changes, considering different types of errors. Our study reveals the importance of clearly quantifying the uncertainties of sea-level change trends.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1927–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to simulate the flow of a simplified, buttressed Antarctic-type outlet glacier with an attached ice shelf. We find that after a few years of perturbation such a glacier responds much stronger to melting under the ice-shelf shear margins than to melting in the central fast streaming part of the ice shelf. This study explains the underlying physical mechanism which might gain importance in the future if melt rates under the Antarctic ice shelves continue to increase.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Karol Kuliński, Gregor Rehder, Eero Asmala, Alena Bartosova, Jacob Carstensen, Bo Gustafsson, Per O. J. Hall, Christoph Humborg, Tom Jilbert, Klaus Jürgens, H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Michael Naumann, Jørgen E. Olesen, Oleg Savchuk, Andreas Schramm, Caroline P. Slomp, Mikhail Sofiev, Anna Sobek, Beata Szymczycha, and Emma Undeman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 633–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, P) external loads; their transformations in the coastal zone; changes in organic matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability); and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. Furthermore, this paper also focuses on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Guillaume Reffray, Aurore Voldoire, and Angélique Melet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Projections of coastal sea level changes are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and have significantly developed in recent years. In this paper, the objective is to provide high-resolution (6 km) projections of sea level changes in the northeastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe. For that purpose, a regional model is used to refine existing coarse global projections.
Andreas Lehmann, Kai Myrberg, Piia Post, Irina Chubarenko, Inga Dailidiene, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Karin Hüssy, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Urmas Lips, and Tatiana Bukanova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 373–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The salinity in the Baltic Sea is not only an important topic for physical oceanography as such, but it also integrates the complete water and energy cycle. It is a primary external driver controlling ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamics are controlled by river runoff, net precipitation, and the water mass exchange between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On shorter timescales, the ephemeral atmospheric conditions drive a very complex and highly variable salinity regime.
Florence Marti, Alejandro Blazquez, Benoit Meyssignac, Michaël Ablain, Anne Barnoud, Robin Fraudeau, Rémi Jugier, Jonathan Chenal, Gilles Larnicol, Julia Pfeffer, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-229-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-229-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere due to the increase in greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations is responsible for the accumulation of energy in the climate system. With its high thermal inertia, the ocean accumulates most of this energy excess in the form of heat. The estimation of the global ocean heat content through space geodetic observations allows monitoring of the energy imbalance with realistic uncertainties to better understand the Earth’s warming climate.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Leigh R. MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando J. Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-406, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-406, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme sea levels represent one of the most damaging natural hazards due to their potential to cause flooding. We developed a new method which incorporates historical information with systematically recorded sea levels, leading to improved estimates of extreme sea levels with reduced uncertainties. Such information helps to improve coastal flood risk analyses, which in turn allows for more efficient planning of coastal protection measures.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Maria Zeitz, Ronja Reese, Johanna Beckmann, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5739–5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, the surface of the ice darkens. The dark surfaces absorb more radiation and thus experience increased melt, resulting in the melt–albedo feedback. Using a simple surface melt model, we estimate that this positive feedback contributes to an additional 60 % ice loss in a high-warming scenario and additional 90 % ice loss for moderate warming. Albedo changes are important for Greenland’s future ice loss.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Jenny Hieronymus, Kari Eilola, Malin Olofsson, Inga Hense, H. E. Markus Meier, and Elin Almroth-Rosell
Biogeosciences, 18, 6213–6227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6213-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dense blooms of cyanobacteria occur every summer in the Baltic Proper and can add to eutrophication by their ability to turn nitrogen gas into dissolved inorganic nitrogen. Being able to correctly estimate the size of this nitrogen fixation is important for management purposes. In this work, we find that the life cycle of cyanobacteria plays an important role in capturing the seasonality of the blooms as well as the size of nitrogen fixation in our ocean model.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Moritz Kreuzer, Ronja Reese, Willem Nicholas Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Torsten Albrecht, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet model and an ocean model that allows one to simulate ice–ocean interactions at timescales from centuries to millennia. As ice shelf cavities cannot be resolved in the ocean model at coarse resolution, we bridge the gap using an sub-shelf cavity module. It is shown that the framework is computationally efficient, conserves mass and energy, and can produce a stable coupled state under present-day forcing.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Jan De Rydt, Ronja Reese, Fernando S. Paolo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations and numerical simulations of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, between 1996 and 2016 to show that the recent increase in its flow speed can only be reproduced by computer models if stringent assumptions are made about the material properties of the ice and its underlying bed. These assumptions are not commonly adopted in ice flow modelling, and our results therefore have implications for future simulations of Antarctic ice flow and sea level projections.
Verónica Morales-Márquez, Alejandro Orfila, Gonzalo Simarro, and Marta Marcos
Ocean Sci., 16, 1385–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1385-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1385-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This is a study of long-term changes in extreme waves and in the synoptic patterns related to them on European coasts. The interannual variability of extreme waves in the North Atlantic Ocean is controlled by the atmospheric patterns of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian indices. In the Mediterranean Sea, it is governed by the East Atlantic and East Atlantic/Western Russia modes acting strongly during their negative phases.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
Hagen Radtke, Sandra-Esther Brunnabend, Ulf Gräwe, and H. E. Markus Meier
Clim. Past, 16, 1617–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1617-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the last century, salinity in the Baltic Sea showed a multidecadal oscillation with a period of 30 years. Using a numerical circulation model and wavelet coherence analysis, we demonstrate that this variation has at least two possible causes. One driver is river runoff which shows a 30-year variation. The second one is a variation in the frequency of strong inflows of saline water across Darss Sill which also contains a pronounced 30-year period.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Long Jiang, Theo Gerkema, Déborah Idier, Aimée B. A. Slangen, and Karline Soetaert
Ocean Sci., 16, 307–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A model downscaling approach is used to investigate the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on local tides. Results indicate that SLR induces larger increases in tidal amplitude and stronger nonlinear tidal distortion in the bay compared to the adjacent shelf sea. SLR can also change shallow-water tidal asymmetry and influence the direction and magnitude of bed-load sediment transport. The model downscaling approach is widely applicable for local SLR projections in estuaries and coastal bays.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Kristian Breili, Matthew James Ross Simpson, Erlend Klokkervold, and Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 673–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Michaël Ablain, Benoît Meyssignac, Lionel Zawadzki, Rémi Jugier, Aurélien Ribes, Giorgio Spada, Jerôme Benveniste, Anny Cazenave, and Nicolas Picot
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A description of the uncertainties in the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) record has been performed; 25 years of satellite altimetry data were used to estimate the error variance–covariance matrix for the GMSL record to derive its confidence envelope. Then a least square approach was used to estimate the GMSL trend and acceleration uncertainties over any time periods. A GMSL trend of 3.35 ± 0.4 mm/yr and a GMSL acceleration of 0.12 ± 0.07 mm/yr² have been found within a 90 % confidence level.
Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, and Marco Reale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1541–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Sophie Bastin, Philippe Drobinski, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Olivier Bock, Romain Roehrig, Clemente Gallardo, Dario Conte, Marta Domínguez Alonso, Laurent Li, Piero Lionello, and Ana C. Parracho
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1471–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses colocated observations of temperature, precipitation and humidity to investigate the triggering of precipitation. It shows that there is a critical value of humidity above which precipitation picks up. This critical value depends on T and varies spatially. It also analyses how this dependency is reproduced in regional climate simulations over Europe. Models with too little and too light precipitation have both lower critical value of humidity and higher probability to exceed it.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Verónica Morales-Márquez, Alejandro Orfila, Gonzalo Simarro, Lluís Gómez-Pujol, Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría, Daniel Conti, Álvaro Galán, Andrés F. Osorio, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3211–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3211-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyzes the response of a beach under a series of storms using a numerical model, in situ measurements and video imaging.
Time recovery after storms is a key issue for local beach managers, who are pressed by tourism stakeholders to nourish the beach
after energetic processes in order to reach the quality standards required by beach users.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately representing grounding-line flux is essential for modelling the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Currently, in some large-scale ice-flow modelling studies a condition on ice flux across grounding lines is imposed using an analytically motivated parameterisation. Here we test this expression for Antarctic grounding lines and find that it provides inaccurate and partly unphysical estimates of ice flux for the highly buttressed ice streams.
Jenny Hieronymus, Kari Eilola, Magnus Hieronymus, H. E. Markus Meier, Sofia Saraiva, and Bengt Karlson
Biogeosciences, 15, 5113–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how phytoplankton concentrations in the Baltic Sea co-vary with nutrient concentrations and other key variables on inter-annual timescales in a model integration over the years 1850–2008. The study area is not only affected by climate change; it has also been subjected to greatly increased nutrient loads due to extensive use of agricultural fertilizers. The results indicate the largest inter-annual coherence of phytoplankton with the limiting nutrient.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Sofia Saraiva, H. E. Markus Meier, Helén Andersson, Anders Höglund, Christian Dieterich, Robinson Hordoir, and Kari Eilola
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-16, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties are estimated in Baltic Sea climate projections by performing scenarios combining 4 Global Climate Models, 2 future gas emissions (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and 3 nutrient load scenarios. Results on primary production, nitrogen fixation, and hypoxic areas show that uncertainties caused by the nutrients loads are greater than uncertainties due to GCMs and RCPs. In all scenarios, nutrient load abatement strategy, Baltic Sea Action Plan, will lead to an improvement in the environmental state.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Tony E. Wong, Alexander M. R. Bakker, Kelsey Ruckert, Patrick Applegate, Aimée B. A. Slangen, and Klaus Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2741–2760, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge (BRICK) model v0.2. BRICK is a model for hindcasting past and projecting future surface temperature and sea-level rise, resolving the sea-level contributions from glaciers and ice caps, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and thermal expansion. BRICK is specifically designed to support decision analyses through its transparency, and includes functionality to scale global sea-level estimates to regional projections.
Alejandra R. Enríquez, Marta Marcos, Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría, Alejandro Orfila, and Damià Gomis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1075–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1075-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we assess the impacts in reshaping coastlines as a result of sea level rise and changes in wave climate. The methodology proposed combines two wave models to resolve the wave processes in two micro-tidal sandy beaches in Mallorca island, western Mediterranean. The modelling approach is validated with observations. Our results indicate that the studied beaches would suffer a coastal retreat of between 7 and up to 50 m, equivalent to half of the present-day aerial beach surface.
Ye Liu, H. E. Markus Meier, and Kari Eilola
Biogeosciences, 14, 2113–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2113-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
From the reanalysis, nutrient transports between sub-basins, between the coastal zone and the open sea, and across latitudinal and longitudinal cross sections, are calculated. Further, the spatial distributions of regions with nutrient import or export are examined. Our results emphasize the important role of the Baltic proper for the entire Baltic Sea. For the calculation of sub-basin budgets, the location of the lateral borders of the sub-basins is crucial.
Robert Marsh, Ivan D. Haigh, Stuart A. Cunningham, Mark E. Inall, Marie Porter, and Ben I. Moat
Ocean Sci., 13, 315–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that separates the deep Atlantic and the continental shelf. This “Slope Current” exerts an Atlantic influence on the North Sea and its ecosystems. Using a combination of computer modelling and archived data, we find that the Slope Current weakened over 1988–2007, reducing Atlantic influence on the North Sea, due to a combination of warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and weakening winds to the west of Scotland.
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Elin Almroth-Rosell, Moa Edman, Kari Eilola, H. E. Markus Meier, and Jörgen Sahlberg
Biogeosciences, 13, 5753–5769, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5753-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Nutrients from land have been discussed to increase eutrophication in the open sea. This model study shows that the coastal zone works as an efficient filter. Water depth and residence time regulate the retention that occurs mostly in the sediment due to processes such as burial and denitrification. On shorter timescales the retention capacity might seem less effective when the land load of nutrients decreases, but with time the coastal zone can import nutrients from the open sea.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
H. B. Dieng, A. Cazenave, K. von Schuckmann, M. Ablain, and B. Meyssignac
Ocean Sci., 11, 789–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-789-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-789-2015, 2015
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
M. Ablain, A. Cazenave, G. Larnicol, M. Balmaseda, P. Cipollini, Y. Faugère, M. J. Fernandes, O. Henry, J. A. Johannessen, P. Knudsen, O. Andersen, J. Legeais, B. Meyssignac, N. Picot, M. Roca, S. Rudenko, M. G. Scharffenberg, D. Stammer, G. Timms, and J. Benveniste
Ocean Sci., 11, 67–82, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-67-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-67-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents various respective data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) project on sea level during its first phase (2010-2013), using multi-mission satellite altimetry data over the 1993-2010 time span.
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
M. Reale and P. Lionello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1707-2013, 2013
A. Sanna, P. Lionello, and S. Gualdi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1567–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1567-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1567-2013, 2013
R. Mel, A. Sterl, and P. Lionello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1135–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1135-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1135-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. R. van den Broeke, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
T. J. Reerink, M. A. Kliphuis, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
Cited articles
Aarnes, O., Reistad, M., Breivik, O., Bitner-Gregersen, E., Eide, L. I., Gramstad, O., Magnusson, A. K., Natvig, B., and Vanem, E.: Projected changes in significant wave height towards the end of the 21st century- Northeast Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 3394–3403, 2017.
Ablain, M., Meyssignac, B., Zawadzki, L., Jugier, R., Ribes, A., Spada, G., Benveniste, J., Cazenave, A., and Picot, N.: Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, 2019.
Adloff, F., Jordà, G., Somot, S., Sevault, F., Arsouze, T., Meyssignac, B., Li, L., and Planton, S.: Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1167–1178, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3842-3, 2018.
Ali, E., Cramer, W., Carnicer, J., Georgopoulou, E., Hilmi, N., Le Cozannet, G., and Lionello, P.: Cross-Chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, C. D., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegria, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2233–2272, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.021, 2022.
Amarouche, K. and Akpinar, A.: Increasing Trend on Storm Wave Intensity in the Western Mediterranean, Climate, 9, 11, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9010011, 2021.
Amarouche, K., Bingölbali, B., and Akpinar, A.: New wind-wave climate records in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Clim. Dynam., 1899–1922, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05997-1, 2022.
Amin, M.: On perturbations of harmonic constants in the Thames Estuary, Geophys. J. Int., 73, 587–603, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1983.tb03334.x, 1983.
Amores, A. and Marcos, M.: Ocean Swells along the Global Coastlines and Their Climate Projections for the Twenty-First Century, J. Climate, 33, 185–199, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0216.1, 2020.
Amores, A., Marcos, M., Carrió, D. S., and Gómez-Pujol, L.: Coastal impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the north-western Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, 2020.
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022.
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Dangendorf, S., and Jensen, J.: The impact of sea level rise on storm surge water levels in the northern part of the German Bight, Coast. Eng., 96, 118–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.12.002, 2015.
Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Jensen, J., Talke, S., Bender, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Sea-level rise induced amplification of coastal protection design heights, Sci. Rep., 7, 40171, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40171, 2017.
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts, Nat. Commun., 11, 1918, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5, 2020.
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021.
Auriac, A., Spaans, K. H., Sigmundsson, F., Hooper, A., Schmidt, P., and Lund, B.: Iceland rising: Solid Earth response to ice retreat inferred from satellite radar interferometry and visocelastic modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 118, 1331–1344, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrb.50082, 2013.
Bagnell, A. and DeVries, T.: Correcting Biases in Historical Bathythermograph Data Using Artificial Neural Networks, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 37, 1781–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0103.1, 2020.
Ballarotta, M., Ubelmann, C., Pujol, M.-I., Taburet, G., Fournier, F., Legeais, J.-F., Faugère, Y., Delepoulle, A., Chelton, D., Dibarboure, G., and Picot, N.: On the resolutions of ocean altimetry maps, Ocean Sci., 15, 1091–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1091-2019, 2019.
Bamber, J. and Riva, R.: The sea level fingerprint of recent ice mass fluxes, The Cryosphere, 4, 621–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-621-2010, 2010.
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116, 2019.
Barbariol, F., Davison, S., Falcieri, F. M., Ferretti, R., Ricchi, A., Sclavo, M., and Benetazzo, A.: Wind Waves in the Mediterranean Sea: An ERA5 Reanalysis Wind-Based Climatology, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 760614, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.760614, 2021.
Barnoud, A., Pfeffer, J., Guérou, A., Frery, M., Siméon, M., Cazenave, A., Chen, J., Llovel, W., Thierry, V., Legeais, J., and Ablain, M.: Contributions of Altimetry and Argo to Non-Closure of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget Since 2016, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL09282, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092824, 2021.
Barnoud, A., Pfeffer, J., Cazenave, A., Fraudeau, R., Rousseau, V., and Ablain, M.: Revisiting the global mean ocean mass budget over 2005–2020, Ocean Sci., 19, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-321-2023, 2023.
Bassis, J. N., Berg, B., Crawford, A. J., and Benn, D. I.: Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity, Science, 372, 1342–1344, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf6271, 2021.
Baxter, P. J.: The east coast Big Flood, 31 January–1 February 1953: a summary of the human disaster, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 363, 1293–1312, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1569, 2005.
Beckmann, J. and Winkelmann, R.: Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023.
Belkin, I. M.: Rapid warming of Large Marine Ecosystems, Prog. Oceanogr., 81, 207–213, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.04.011, 2009.
Benetazzo, A., Davison, S., Barbariol, F., Mercogliano, P., Favaretto, C., and Sclavo, M.: Correction of ERA5 Wind for Regional Climate Projections of Sea Waves, Water, 14, 1590, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101590, 2022.
Bertin, X., Bruneau, N., Breilh, J.-F., Fortunato, A. B., and Karpytchev, M.: Importance of wave age and resonance in storm surges: The case Xynthia, Bay of Biscay, Ocean Model., 42, 16–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.11.001, 2012.
Birol, F., Fuller, N., Lyard, F., Cancet, M., Niño, F., Delebecque, C., Fleury, S., Toublanc, F., Melet, A., Saraceno, M., and Léger, F.: Coastal applications from nadir altimetry: Example of the X-TRACK regional products, Adv. Space Res., 59, 936–953, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2016.11.005, 2017.
Birol, F., Léger, F., Passaro, M., Cazenave, A., Niño, F., Calafat, F. M., Shaw, A., Legeais, J.-F., Gouzenes, Y., Schwatke, C., and Benveniste, J.: The X-TRACK/ALES multi-mission processing system: New advances in altimetry towards the coast, Adv. Space Res., 67, 2398–2415, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2021.01.049, 2021.
Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., and Boers, N.: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 622, 528–536, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9, 2023.
Boers, N. and Rypdal, M.: Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2024192118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118, 2021.
Bonaduce, A., Pinardi, N., Oddo, P., Spada, G., and Larnicol, G.: Sea-level variability in the Mediterranean Sea from altimetry and tide gauges, Clim. Dynam., 47, 2851–2866, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3001-2, 2016.
Bonaduce, A., Staneva, J., Grayek, S., Bidlot, J.-R., and Breivik, Ø.: Sea-state contributions to sea-level variability in the European Seas, Ocean Dynam., 70, 1547–1569, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01404-1, 2020.
Bonaduce, A., Pham, N., Staneva, J., Grayek, S., Raj, R. P., and Breivik, Ø.: Sea state contribution to steric sea-level, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 April 2023, EGU23-9307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9307, 2023.
Boucharel, J., David, M., Almar, R., and Melet, A.: Contrasted influence of climate modes teleconnections to the interannual variability of coastal sea level components–implications for statistical forecasts, Clim. Dynam., 61, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06771-1, 2023.
Boumis, G., Moftakhari, H. R., and Moradkhani, H.: Coevolution of Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise Under Global Warming, Earths Future, 11, e2023EF003649, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003649, 2023.
Bouttes, N., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: The Reversibility of Sea Level Rise, J. Climate, 26, 2502–2513, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00285.1, 2013.
Breili, K.: Evolution of sea-level trends along the Norwegian coast from 1960 to 2100, Ocean Dynam., 72, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-021-01492-7, 2022.
Breili, K., Simpson, M. J. R., and Nilsen, J. E. Ø.: Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 5, 29, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030029, 2017.
Bricheno, L. M. and Wolf, J.: Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High-End Climate Change Scenarios, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 8762–8791, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013866, 2018.
Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., and Tebaldi, C.: Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise, Clim. Change, 137, 347–362, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7, 2016.
Calafat, F. M. and Chambers, D. P.: Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3661–3666, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50731, 2013.
Calafat, F. M., Marcos, M., and Gomis, D.: Mass contribution to Mediterranean Sea level variability for the period 1948–2000, Glob. Planet. Change, 73, 193–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.06.002, 2010.
Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., and Tsimplis, M. N.: Mechanisms of decadal sea level variability in the eastern North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea: Decadal Sea Level Variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C09022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008285, 2012.
Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., and Tsimplis, M. N.: Inter-annual to decadal sea-level variability in the coastal zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas: The role of atmospheric forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20106, 2013.
Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., and Tsimplis, M. N.: On the ability of global sea level reconstructions to determine trends and variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 1572–1592, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009298, 2014.
Calafat, F. M., Wahl, T., Tadesse, M. G., and Sparrow, S. N.: Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise, Nature, 603, 841–845, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04426-5, 2022.
Caldwell, P. C., Merrifield, M. A., and Thompson, P. R.: Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) since 1846, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5V40S7W, 2001.
Calvino, C., Dabrowski, T., and Dias, F.: A study of the wave effects on the current circulation in Galway Bay, using the numerical model COAWST, Coast. Eng., 180, 104251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104251, 2023.
Camargo, C. M. L., Riva, R. E. M., Hermans, T. H. J., Schütt, E. M., Marcos, M., Hernandez-Carrasco, I., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Regionalizing the sea-level budget with machine learning techniques, Ocean Sci., 19, 17–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-17-2023, 2023.
Candela, T. and Koster, K.: The many faces of anthropogenic subsidence, Science, 376, 1381–1382, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn3676, 2022.
Caron, L., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Adhikari, S., Nilsson, J., and Blewitt, G.: GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2203–2212, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076644, 2018.
Casas-Prat, M. and Sierra, J. P.: Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea: Projected Waves in the NW Mediterranean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 3548–3568, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20233, 2013.
Cazenave, A. and Le Cozannet, G.: Sea level rise and its coastal impacts, Earths Future, 2, 15–34, 2014.
Cazenave, A. and Moreira, L.: Contemporary sea-level changes from global to local scales: a review, Proc. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 478, 20220049, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2022.0049, 2022.
Chafik, L., Nilsen, J., and Dangendorf, S.: Impact of North Atlantic Teleconnection Patterns on Northern European Sea Level, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 5, 43, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030043, 2017.
Chafik, L., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Dangendorf, S., Reverdin, G., and Frederikse, T.: North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Decadal Sea Level Change During the Altimetry Era, Sci. Rep., 9, 1041, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37603-6, 2019.
Chaigneau, A. A., Reffray, G., Voldoire, A., and Melet, A.: IBI-CCS: a regional high-resolution model to simulate sea level in western Europe, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2035-2022, 2022.
Chaigneau, A. A., Law-Chune, S., Melet, A., Voldoire, A., Reffray, G., and Aouf, L.: Impact of sea level changes on future wave conditions along the coasts of western Europe, Ocean Sci., 19, 1123–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1123-2023, 2023.
Chelton, D. B., deSzoeke, R. A., Schlax, M. G., El Naggar, K., and Siwertz, N.: Geographical Variability of the First Baroclinic Rossby Radius of Deformation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 433–460, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1998)028<0433:GVOTFB>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Chen, D. and Omstedt, A.: Climate-induced variability of sea level in Stockholm: Influence of air temperature and atmospheric circulation, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 655–664, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02918709, 2005.
Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Abraham, J., and Zhu, J.: Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601545, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545, 2017.
Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., and Wood, M.: Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z, 2021.
Christensen, O. B., Kjellström, E., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., and Meier, H. E. M.: Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 9781107415324, 2013.
Cid, A., Menéndez, M., Castanedo, S., Abascal, A. J., Méndez, F. J., and Medina, R.: Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme storm surge events in southern Europe, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1503–1516, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2659-1, 2016.
Cipollini, P., Calafat, F. M., Jevrejeva, S., Melet, A., and Prandi, P.: Monitoring Sea Level in the Coastal Zone with Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges, Surv. Geophys., 38, 33–57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9392-0, 2017.
Clark, M., Marsh, R., and Harle, J.: Weakening and warming of the European Slope Current since the late 1990s attributed to basin-scale density changes, Ocean Sci., 18, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, 2022.
Codiga, D.: UTide Unified Tidal Analysis and Prediction Functions, MATLAB Central File Exchange [code], https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/46523-utide-unified-tidal-analysis-and-prediction-functions (last access: 17 July 2024), 2024.
Compton, K., Bennett, R. A., and Hreinsdóttir, S.: Climate-driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by continuous GPS geodesy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 743–750, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062446, 2015.
Conte, D. and Lionello, P.: Characteristics of large positive and negative surges in the Mediterranean Sea and their attenuation in future climate scenarios, Glob. Planet. Change, 111, 159–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.006, 2013.
Cooley, S., Schoeman, D., Bopp, L., Boyd, P., Donner, S., Ghebrehiwet, D. Y., Ito, S.-I., Kiessling, W., Martinetto, P., Ojea, E., Racault, M.-F., Rost, B., and Skern-Mauritzen, M.: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 379–550, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.005, 2022.
Coulson, S., Lubeck, M., Mitrovica, J. X., Powell, E., Davis, J. L., and Hoggard, M. J.: The Global Fingerprint of Modern Ice-Mass Loss on 3-D Crustal Motion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095477, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095477, 2021.
Dalan, F., Stone, P. H., and Sokolov, A. P.: Sensitivity of the Ocean's Climate to Diapycnal Diffusivity in an EMIC. Part II: Global Warming Scenario, J. Climate, 18, 2482–2496, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3412.1, 2005.
Dangendorf, S., Wahl, T., Mudersbach, C., and Jensen, J.: The Seasonal Mean Sea Level Cycle in the Southeastern North Sea, J. Coast. Res., 165, 1915–1920, https://doi.org/10.2112/SI65-324.1, 2013.
Dangendorf, S., Calafat, F. M., Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., and Jensen, J.: Mean sea level variability in the North Sea: Processes and implications, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 2014JC009901, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009901, 2014.
Dangendorf, S., Hay, C., Calafat, F. M., Marcos, M., Piecuch, C. G., Berk, K., and Jensen, J.: Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 705–710, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8, 2019.
Dangendorf, S., Frederikse, T., Chafik, L., Klinck, J. M., Ezer, T., and Hamlington, B. D.: Data-driven reconstruction reveals large-scale ocean circulation control on coastal sea level, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 514–520, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01046-1, 2021.
de Alfonso, M., Lin-Ye, J., García-Valdecasas, J. M., Pérez-Rubio, S., Luna, M. Y., Santos-Muñoz, D., Ruiz, M. I., Pérez-Gómez, B., and Álvarez-Fanjul, E.: Storm Gloria: Sea State Evolution Based on in situ Measurements and Modeled Data and Its Impact on Extreme Values, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 646873, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.646873, 2021.
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez, N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. E., Li, D., and Dutton, A.: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica, Nature, 593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0, 2021.
De Leo, F., De Leo, A., Besio, G., and Briganti, R.: Detection and quantification of trends in time series of significant wave heights: An application in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Eng., 202, 107155, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.107155, 2020.
Delhasse, A., Hanna, E., Kittel, C., and Fettweis, X.: Brief communication: CMIP6 does not suggest any atmospheric blocking increase in summer over Greenland by 2100, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 2589–2596, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6977, 2021.
Denamiel, C., Tojčić, I., and Vilibić, I.: Meteotsunamis in orography-free, flat bathymetry and warming climate conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, 1167863, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017386, 2022.
Denamiel, C., Belušić, D., Zemunik, P., and Vilibić, I.: Climate projections of meteotsunami hazards, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1167863, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1167863, 2023.
De Zolt, S., Lionello, P., Nuhu, A., and Tomasin, A.: The disastrous storm of 4 November 1966 on Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-861-2006, 2006.
Dieterich, C. and Radtke, H.: Higher quantiles of sea levels rise faster in Baltic Sea Climate projections, Clim. Dynam., 62, 3709–3719, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07094-x, 2024.
Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Arneborg, L., and Andersson, H. C.: Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity, Ocean Sci., 15, 1399–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019, 2019.
Dodet, G., Melet, A., Ardhuin, F., Bertin, X., Idier, D., and Almar, R.: The Contribution of Wind-Generated Waves to Coastal Sea-Level Changes, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1563–1601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09557-5, 2019.
Dodet, G., Piolle, J.-F., Quilfen, Y., Abdalla, S., Accensi, M., Ardhuin, F., Ash, E., Bidlot, J.-R., Gommenginger, C., Marechal, G., Passaro, M., Quartly, G., Stopa, J., Timmermans, B., Young, I., Cipollini, P., and Donlon, C.: The Sea State CCI dataset v1: towards a sea state climate data record based on satellite observations, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1929–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1929-2020, 2020.
Donner, R. V., Ehrcke, R., Barbosa, S. M., Wagner, J., Donges, J. F., and Kurths, J.: Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 95–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-95-2012, 2012.
Doodsen, A. T.: Perturbations of harmonic tidal constants, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. Contain. Pap. Math. Phys. Character, 106, 513–526, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1924.0085, 1924.
Doodson, A. T.: Report on Thames floods, HM Stationery Office, London, https://books.google.fr/books?id=QwgiAQAAIAAJ (last access: 2 July 2024), 1929.
Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D. A., Turner, F. E., Smith, C. J., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le Clec'H, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Rückamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Van De Wal, R., Van Den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise, Nature, 593, 74–82, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y, 2021.
Ehlert, D., Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., and Gillett, N.: The Sensitivity of the Proportionality between Temperature Change and Cumulative CO2 Emissions to Ocean Mixing, J. Climate, 30, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0247.1, 2017.
Ekman, M.: A consistent map of the postglacial uplift of Fennoscandia, Terra Nova, 8, 158–165, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.1996.tb00739.x, 1996.
EU Copernicus Marine Service: Black Sea Mean Sea Level time series and trend from Observations Reprocessing, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/MOI-00215, 2019a.
EU Copernicus Marine Service: Global Ocean Mean Sea Level time series and trend from Observations Reprocessing, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/MOI-00237, 2019b.
EU Copernicus Marine Service: Mediterranean Sea Mean Sea Level time series and trend from Observations Reprocessing, Mercator Ocean International [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/MOI-00264, 2019c.
Fasullo, J. T. and Nerem, R. S.: Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 12944–12949, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1813233115, 2018.
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Le Brocq, A. M.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014.
Feldmann, J. and Levermann, A.: Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 14191–14196, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1512482112, 2015.
Fernández-Montblanc, T., Gómez-Enri, J., and Ciavola, P.: The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline, Remote Sens., 12, 3419, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203419, 2020.
Ferrarin, C., Bajo, M., Benetazzo, A., Cavaleri, L., Chiggiato, J., Davison, S., Davolio, S., Lionello, P., Orlić, M., and Umgiesser, G.: Local and large-scale controls of the exceptional Venice floods of November 2019, Prog. Oceanogr., 197, 102628, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102628, 2021.
Ferrarin, C., Lionello, P., Orlić, M., Raicich, F., and Salvadori, G.: Venice as a paradigm of coastal flooding under multiple compound drivers, Sci. Rep., 12, 5754, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09652-5, 2022.
Ferrarin, C., Orlić, M., Bajo, M., Davolio, S., Umgiesser, G., and Lionello, P.: The contribution of a mesoscale cyclone and associated meteotsunami to the exceptional flood in Venice on November 12, 2019, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 149, 2929–2942, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4539, 2023.
Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia, L.: Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – A review, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 350–382, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2364, 2015.
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013.
Fiúza, A. F. G.: Upwelling Patterns off Portugal, in: Coastal Upwelling Its Sediment Record, edited by: Suess, E. and Thiede, J., Springer US, Boston, MA, 85–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-6651-9_5, 1983.
Flemming, B. W.: Tidal environments, in: Encyclopedia of coastal science, edited by: Schwartz, M., Berlin, Germany, 1180–1185, ISBN 978-1402019036, 2005.
Forget, G. and Ponte, R. M.: The partition of regional sea level variability, Prog. Oceanogr., 137, 173–195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.06.002, 2015.
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, 2021.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M. A., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallee, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, N., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, 2021.
Frederikse, T. and Gerkema, T.: Multi-decadal variability in seasonal mean sea level along the North Sea coast, Ocean Sci., 14, 1491–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1491-2018, 2018.
Frederikse, T., Riva, R., Kleinherenbrink, M., Wada, Y., Van Den Broeke, M., and Marzeion, B.: Closing the sea level budget on a regional scale: Trends and variability on the Northwestern European continental shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10864–10872, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070750, 2016.
Frederikse, T., Buchanan, M. K., Lambert, E., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., Rasmussen, D. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes, Nat. Commun., 11, 390, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6, 2020a.
Frederikse, T., Landerer, F., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., Parkes, D., Humphrey, V. W., Dangendorf, S., Hogarth, P., Zanna, L., Cheng, L., and Wu, Y.-H.: The causes of sea-level rise since 1900, Nature, 584, 393–397, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3, 2020b.
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020.
Garner, G. G., Hermans, T., Kopp, R. E., Slangen, A. B. A., Edwards, T. L., Levermann, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., Smith, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Yu, Y., Hua, L., Palmer, T., and Pearson, B.: IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Version 20210809), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914709, 2021.
Garrote, J., Díaz-Álvarez, A., Nganhane, H., and Garzón Heydt, G.: The Severe 2013–14 Winter Storms in the Historical Evolution of Cantabrian (Northern Spain) Beach-Dune Systems, Geosciences, 8, 459, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8120459, 2018.
Gerkema, T. and Duran-Matute, M.: Interannual variability of mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate in an inter-tidal basin, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1223–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1223-2017, 2017.
Gerritsen, H.: What happened in 1953? The Big Flood in the Netherlands in retrospect, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 363, 1271–1291, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1568, 2005.
Giesen, R., Clementi, E., Bajo, M., Federico, I., Stoffelen, A., and Santoleri, R.: The November 2019 record highwater levels in Venice, in: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 5, vol. 14, s140–s148, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2021.1946240, 2021.
Gilbert, S. and Horner, R.: The Thames Barrier, Thomas Telford Ltd, ISBN 978-0727702494, 1986.
Girjatowicz, J. P.: Ice thrusts and piles on the shores of the Southern Baltic Sea coast (Poland) lagoons, Balt. Coast. Zone J. Ecol. Prot. Coastline, 8, 5–22, 2004.
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Little, C., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Quiquet, A., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Slater, D. A., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Tarasov, L., van de Wal, R., and van den Broeke, M.: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6, The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020.
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J., Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019.
Golledge, N. R., Clark, P. U., He, F., Dutton, A., Turney, C. S. M., Fogwill, C. J., Naish, T. R., Levy, R. H., McKay, R. M., Lowry, D. P., Bertler, N. A. N., Dunbar, G. B., and Carlson, A. E.: Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Interglaciation and Implications for Future Change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094513, 2021.
Gomis, D., Álvarez-Fanjul, E., Jordà, G., Marcos, M., Aznar, R., Rodríguez-Camino, E., Sánchez-Perrino, J. C., Rodríguez-González, J. M., Martínez-Asensio, A., Llasses, J., Pérez, B., and Sotillo, M. G.: Regional marine climate scenarios in the NE Atlantic sector close to the Spanish shores, Sci. Mar., 80, 215–234, https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.04328.07A, 2016.
Gönnert, G., Dube, S. K., Murty, T. S., and Siefert, W.: Global Storm Surges: Theory Observation and Applications, Westholsteinische Verlagsanstalt Boyens & Co, Heide in Holstein, 623 pp., ISBN 9783804210547, 2001.
González-Alemán, J. J., Pascale, S., Gutierrez-Fernandez, J., Murakami, H., Gaertner, M. A., and Vecchi, G. A.: Potential Increase in Hazard From Mediterranean Hurricane Activity With Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1754–1764, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081253, 2019.
Görmüş, T. and Ayat, B.: GüneybatıKaradeniz kıyılarının kırılganlık analizi, Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendis. Mimar. Fakültesi Derg., 35, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.504954, 2019.
Gräwe, U. and Burchard, H.: Storm surges in the Western Baltic Sea: the present and a possible future, Clim. Dynam., 39, 165–183, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1185-z, 2012.
Gräwe, U., Klingbeil, K., Kelln, J., and Dangendorf, S.: Decomposing Mean Sea Level Rise in a Semi-Enclosed Basin, the Baltic Sea, J. Climate, 32, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0174.1, 2019.
Greene, C. A., Gardner, A. S., Schlegel, N.-J., and Fraser, A. D.: Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning, Nature, 609, 948–953, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05037-w, 2022.
Greenspan, M.: Propagation of Sound in Five Monatomic Gases, J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 28, 644–648, https://doi.org/10.1121/1.1908432, 1956.
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C. W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Le Cozannet, G., Ponte, R. M., Stammer, D., Tamisiea, M. E., and Van De Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global, Surv. Geophys., 1251–1289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019.
Gregory, J. M., George, S. E., and Smith, R. S.: Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 4299–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, 2020.
Grinsted, A., Jevrejeva, S., Riva, R., and Dahl-Jensen, D.: Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5, Clim. Res., 64, 15–23, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01309, 2015.
Gröger, M., Dieterich, C., Haapala, J., Ho-Hagemann, H. T. M., Hagemann, S., Jakacki, J., May, W., Meier, H. E. M., Miller, P. A., Rutgersson, A., and Wu, L.: Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021.
Groh, A., Richter, A., and Dietrich, C.: Recent Baltic Sea level changes induced by past and present ice masses, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East: Past and Future Projection, edited by: Harff, J., Furmanczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer, 55–68, ISBN 978-3319842660, 2017.
Gudmundsson, G. H.: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 7, 647–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, 2013.
Gudmundsson, G. H., Paolo, F. S., Adusumilli, S., and Fricker, H. A.: Instantaneous Antarctic ice sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13903–13909, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085027, 2019.
Guérou, A., Meyssignac, B., Prandi, P., Ablain, M., Ribes, A., and Bignalet-Cazalet, F.: Current observed global mean sea level rise and acceleration estimated from satellite altimetry and the associated measurement uncertainty, Ocean Sci., 19, 431–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-431-2023, 2023.
Gutiérrez, J. M., Jones, R. G., Narisma, G. T., Alves, L. M., Amjad, M., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Grose, M., Klutse, N. A. B., Krakovska, S., Li, J., Martínez-Castro, D., Mearns, L. O., Mernild, S. H., Ngo-Duc, T., van den Hurk, B., and Yoon, J.-H.: Atlas, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, 2021.
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016.
Haasnoot, M., Brown, S., Scussolini, P., Jimenez, J. A., Vafeidis, A. T., and Nicholls, R. J.: Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise, Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 071006, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871, 2019.
Haasnoot, M., Lawrence, J., and Magnan, A. K.: Pathways to coastal retreat: The shrinking solution space for adaptation calls for long-term dynamic planning starting now, Science, 372, 1287–1290,, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi6594, 2021.
Haigh, I., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N.: Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context, Cont. Shelf Res., 29, 2083–2098, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.07.013, 2009.
Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N.: Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900–2006, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 1042–1055, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.02.002, 2010.
Haigh, I. D., Wadey, M. P., Gallop, S. L., Loehr, H., Nicholls, R. J., Horsburgh, K., Brown, J. M., and Bradshaw, E.: A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915–2014, Sci. Data, 2, 150021, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.21, 2015.
Haigh, I. D., Ozsoy, O., Wadey, M. P., Nicholls, R. J., Gallop, S. L., Wahl, T., and Brown, J. M.: An improved database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915 to 2016, Sci. Data, 4, 170100, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.100, 2017.
Haigh, I. D., Pickering, M. D., Green, J. A. M., Arbic, B. K., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hill, D. F., Horsburgh, K., Howard, T., Idier, D., Jay, D. A., Jänicke, L., Lee, S. B., Müller, M., Schindelegger, M., Talke, S. A., Wilmes, S., and Woodworth, P. L.: The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2018RG000636, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000636, 2020.
Haigh, I. D., Marcos, M., Talke, S. A., Woodworth, P. L., Hunter, J. R., Hague, B. S., Arns, A., Bradshaw, E., and Thompson, P.: GESLA Version 3: A major update to the global higher-frequency sea-level dataset, Geosci. Data J., 10, 293–314, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.174, 2022.
Hallberg, R.: Using a resolution function to regulate parameterizations of oceanic mesoscale eddy effects, Ocean Model., 72, 92–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.08.007, 2013.
Hamlington, B. D., Piecuch, C. G., Reager, J. T., Chandanpurkar, H., Frederikse, T., Nerem, R. S., Fasullo, J. T., and Cheon, S.-H.: Origin of interannual variability in global mean sea level, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 13983–13990, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922190117, 2020.
Hammarklint, T.: Swedish Sea Level Series – A Climate Indicator, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), 5 pp., https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.8963!/Swedish_Sea_Level_Series_-_A_Climate_Indicator.pdf (last access: 2 July 2024), 2009.
Hammond, W. C., Blewitt, G., Kreemer, C., and Nerem, R. S.: GPS Imaging of Global Vertical Land Motion for Studies of Sea Level Rise, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 126, e2021JB022355, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022355, 2021.
Hanna, E., Fettweis, X., and Hall, R. J.: Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models, The Cryosphere, 12, 3287–3292, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018, 2018.
Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S. H., Mote, T. L., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. J., and Hall, R. J.: Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E1336–E1352, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771, 2021.
Haseloff, M. and Sergienko, O. V.: The effect of buttressing on grounding line dynamics, J. Glaciol., 64, 417–431, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.30, 2018.
Henry, O., Prandi, P., Llovel, W., Cazenave, A., Jevrejeva, S., Stammer, D., Meyssignac, B., and Koldunov, N.: Tide gauge-based sea level variations since 1950 along the Norwegian and Russian coasts of the Arctic Ocean: Contribution of the steric and mass components, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, 2011JC007706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007706, 2012.
Henry, O., Ablain, M., Meyssignac, B., Cazenave, A., Masters, D., Nerem, S., and Garric, G.: Effect of the processing methodology on satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level rise over the Jason-1 operating period, J. Geod., 88, 351–361, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-013-0687-3, 2014.
Hermans, T. H. J., Tinker, J., Palmer, M. D., Katsman, C. A., Vermeersen, B. L. A., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling, Clim. Dynam., 54, 1987–2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05104-5, 2020.
Hermans, T. H. J., Gregory, J. M., Palmer, M. D., Ringer, M. A., Katsman, C. A., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Projecting Global Mean Sea-Level Change Using CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092064, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092064, 2021.
Hermans, T. H. J., Katsman, C. A., Camargo, C. M. L., Garner, G. G., Kopp, R. E., and Slangen, A. B. A.: The Effect of Wind Stress on Seasonal Sea-Level Change on the Northwestern European Shelf, J. Climate, 35, 1745–1759, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0636.1, 2022.
Hermans, T. H. J., Malagón-Santos, V., Katsman, C. A., Jane, R. A., Rasmussen, D. J., Haasnoot, M., Garner, G. G., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., and Slangen, A. B. A.: The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 359–366, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5, 2023.
Hieronymus, M. and Kalén, O.: Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, Ambio, 49, 1587–1600, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8, 2020.
Hill, E. A., Rosier, S. H. R., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Collins, M.: Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 15, 4675–4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021, 2021.
Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Reese, R., Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P. M.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry, The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023.
Hill, E. M., Davis, J. L., Tamisiea, M. E., and Lidberg, M.: Combination of geodetic observations and models for glacial isostatic adjustment fields in Fennoscandia, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 115, B07403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006967, 2010.
Hogarth, P., Hughes, C. W., Williams, S. D. P., and Wilson, C.: Improved and extended tide gauge records for the British Isles leading to more consistent estimates of sea level rise and acceleration since 1958, Prog. Oceanogr., 184, 102333, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102333, 2020.
Hogarth, P., Pugh, D. T., Hughes, C. W., and Williams, S. D. P.: Changes in mean sea level around Great Britain over the past 200 years, Prog. Oceanogr., 192, 102521, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102521, 2021.
Holgate, S. J., Matthews, A., Woodworth, P. L., Rickards, L. J., Tamisiea, M. E., Bradshaw, E., Foden, P. R., Gordon, K. M., Jevrejeva, S., and Pugh, J.: New Data Systems and Products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, J. Coast. Res., 29, 493–504, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00175.1, 2013.
Holland, D. M., Thomas, R. H., De Young, B., Ribergaard, M. H., and Lyberth, B.: Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters, Nat. Geosci., 1, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo316, 2008.
Horsburgh, K. J. and Wilson, C.: Tide-surge interaction and its role in the distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C08003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004033, 2007.
Howard, T., Palmer, M. D., and Bricheno, L. M.: Contributions to 21st century projections of extreme sea-level change around the UK, Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 095002, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab42d7, 2019.
Hughes, C. W., Fukumori, I., Griffies, S. M., Huthnance, J. M., Minobe, S., Spence, P., Thompson, K. R., and Wise, A.: Sea Level and the Role of Coastal Trapped Waves in Mediating the Influence of the Open Ocean on the Coast, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1467–1492, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09535-x, 2019.
Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E.: Trends in the amplitude of Baltic Sea level annual cycle, Tellus Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 60, 154–164, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00277.x, 2008.
Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E.: Statistical Analysis of the Acceleration of Baltic Mean Sea-Level Rise, 1900–2012, Front. Mar. Sci., 3, 125, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00125, 2016.
Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., Soomere, T., Madsen, K. S., Johansson, M., and Suursaar, Ü.: Recent Change – Sea Level and Wind Waves, in: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, edited by: The BACC II Author Team, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 155–185, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_9, 2015.
Hunter, J.: A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise, Clim. Change, 113, 239–252, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1, 2012.
Hunter, J. R., Church, J. A., White, N. J., and Zhang, X.: Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise, Ocean Eng., 71, 17–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2012.12.041, 2013.
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676, 1995.
Hurrell, J. W. and Deser, C.: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Mar. Syst., 79, 231–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002, 2010.
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation, in: Geophysical Monograph Series, edited by: Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M., American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C., vol. 134, 1–35, https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM01, 2003.
Huthnance, J. M. and Gould, W. J.: On the Northeast Atlantic Slope Current, in: Poleward Flows Along Eastern Ocean Boundaries, edited by: Neshyba, S. J., Mooers, C. N. K., Smith, R. L., and Barber, R. T., Springer New York, New York, NY, 76–81, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8963-7_7, 1989.
Idier, D., Dumas, F., and Muller, H.: Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3709–3718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3709-2012, 2012.
Idier, D., Paris, F., Cozannet, G. L., Boulahya, F., and Dumas, F.: Sea-level rise impacts on the tides of the European Shelf, Cont. Shelf Res., 137, 56–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.01.007, 2017.
Idier, D., Bertin, X., Thompson, P., and Pickering, M. D.: Interactions Between Mean Sea Level, Tide, Surge, Waves and Flooding: Mechanisms and Contributions to Sea Level Variations at the Coast, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1603–1630, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09549-5, 2019.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013.
IPCC: Special report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ (last access: 2 July 2024), 2019.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., E. Lonnoy, J. B., Matthews, R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., And, R. Y., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, 2021a.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 3–32, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021b.
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Melet, A., and Armaroli, C.: Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 1091844, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1091844, 2023.
Jänicke, L., Ebener, A., Dangendorf, S., Arns, A., Schindelegger, M., Niehüser, S., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., and Jensen, J.: Assessment of Tidal Range Changes in the North Sea From 1958 to 2014, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016456, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016456, 2021.
Jensen, A.: Excretion of organic carbon as function of nutrient stress, in: Lecture Notes on Coastal and Estuarine Studies, edited by: Holm-Hansen, O., Bolis, L., and Gilles, R., American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C., vol. 8, 61–72, https://doi.org/10.1029/LN008p0061, 1984.
Jensen, J. and Mudersbach, C.: Zeitliche Anderungen in den Wasserstandszeitreihen an den Deutschen Kusten, Berichte Zur Dtsch. Landeskd., 81, 99, 2007.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Simulation of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), NASA [data set], https://vesl.jpl.nasa.gov/solid-earth/gia, last access: 2 July 2024.
Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., Woodworth, P. L., and Grinsted, A.: Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on European sea level: results based on the wavelet transform method, Tellus Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 57, 183–193, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i2.14609, 2005.
Jevrejeva, S., Williams, J., Vousdoukas, M. I., and Jackson, L. P.: Future sea level rise dominates changes in worst case extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 024037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb504, 2023.
Jiang, L., Gerkema, T., Idier, D., Slangen, A. B. A., and Soetaert, K.: Effects of sea-level rise on tides and sediment dynamics in a Dutch tidal bay, Ocean Sci., 16, 307–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, 2020.
Jiménez, J. A., Winter, G., Bonaduce, A., Depuydt, M., Galluccio, G., van den Hurk, B., Meier, H. E. M., Pinardi, N., Pomarico, L. G., and Vazquez Riveiros, N.: Sea Level Rise in Europe: Knowledge gaps identified through a participatory approach, in: Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLRE1), edited by: van den Hurk, B., Pinardi, N., Kiefer, T., Larkin, K., Manderscheid, P., and Richter, K., Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024.
Jin, Y., Zhang, X., Church, J. A., and Bao, X.: Projected sea-level changes in the marginal seas near China based on dynamical downscaling, J. Climate, 1–52, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0796.1, 2021.
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014.
Keizer, I., Le Bars, D., de Valk, C., Jüling, A., van de Wal, R., and Drijfhout, S.: The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s, Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023.
Keller, H.: Weser and Ems, ihre Stromgebiete und ihre wichtigsten Nebenfluesse: Eine hydrographische, wasserwirtschaftlichte und wasserrechtliche Darstellung, IV., Dietrich Reimer, Berlin, ISBN 978-1144661845, 1901.
Kenyeres, A., Bellet, J. G., Bruyninx, C., Caporali, A., De Doncker, F., Droscak, B., Duret, A., Franke, P., Georgiev, I., Bingley, R., Huisman, L., Jivall, L., Khoda, O., Kollo, K., Kurt, A. I., Lahtinen, S., Legrand, J., Magyar, B., Mesmaker, D., Morozova, K., Nágl, J., Özdemir, S., Papanikolaou, X., Parseliunas, E., Stangl, G., Ryczywolski, M., Tangen, O. B., Valdes, M., Zurutuza, J., and Weber, M.: Regional integration of long-term national dense GNSS network solutions, GPS Solut., 23, 122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-019-0902-7, 2019.
Kierulf, H. P., Steffen, H., Barletta, V. R., Lidberg, M., Johansson, J., Kristiansen, O., and Tarasov, L.: A GNSS velocity field for geophysical applications in Fennoscandia, J. Geodyn., 146, 101845, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2021.101845, 2021.
Kierulf, H. P., Kohler, J., Boy, J.-P., Geyman, E. C., Mémin, A., Omang, O. C. D., Steffen, H., and Steffen, R.: Time-varying uplift in Svalbard – an effect of glacial changes, Geophys. J. Int., 231, 1518–1534, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac264, 2022.
Kim, Y.-Y., Kim, B.-G., Jeong, K. Y., Lee, E., Byun, D.-S., and Cho, Y.-K.: Local Sea-Level Rise Caused by Climate Change in the Northwest Pacific Marginal Seas Using Dynamical Downscaling, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 620570, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.620570, 2021.
Kirezci, E., Young, I. R., Ranasinghe, R., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Lincke, D., and Hinkel, J.: Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century, Sci. Rep., 10, 11629, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6, 2020.
Kirezci, E., Young, I. R., Ranasinghe, R., Lincke, D., and Hinkel, J.: Global-scale analysis of socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding over the 21st century, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 1024111, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1024111, 2023.
Kolen, B., Slomp, R., and Jonkman, S. N.: The impacts of storm Xynthia February 27–28, 2010 in France: lessons for flood risk management: Impacts of storm Xynthia, J. Flood Risk Manag., 6, 261–278, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12011, 2013.
Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Little, C. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Oppenheimer, M., Rasmussen, D. J., Strauss, B. H., and Tebaldi, C.: Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites, Earths Future, 2, 383–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000239, 2014.
Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., O'Reilly, J. L., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Fox-Kemper, B., Garner, G. G., Golledge, N. R., Hermans, T. H. J., Hewitt, H. T., Horton, B. P., Krinner, G., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., Slangen, A. B. A., and Xiao, C.: Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 648–660, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8, 2023.
Koseki, S., Mooney, P. A., Cabos, W., Gaertner, M. Á., de la Vara, A., and González-Alemán, J. J.: Modelling a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea under present and warmer climate, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 53–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021, 2021.
Krasting, J. P., Stouffer, R. J., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Malyshev, S. L., Samuels, B. L., and Sentman, L. T.: Role of Ocean Model Formulation in Climate Response Uncertainty, J. Climate, 31, 9313–9333, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0035.1, 2018.
Kuhlbrodt, T. and Gregory, J. M.: Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952, 2012.
LaCasce, J. H. and Groeskamp, S.: Baroclinic Modes over Rough Bathymetry and the Surface Deformation Radius, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 50, 2835–2847, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0055.1, 2020.
Lambert, E., Rohmer, J., Le Cozannet, G., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 074015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8336, 2020.
Lambert, E., Le Bars, D., Goelzer, H., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Correlations Between Sea-Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change, Earths Future, 9, e2020EF001825, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001825, 2021.
Lang, A. and Mikolajewicz, U.: The long-term variability of extreme sea levels in the German Bight, Ocean Sci., 15, 651–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019, 2019.
Legeais, J.-F., Llovel, W., Melet, A., and Meyssignac, B.: Evidence of the TOPEX-A Altimeter Instrumental Anomaly and Acceleration of the Global Mean Sea Level, in: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 4, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 13, s77–s82, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2020.1785097, 2020.
Legeais, J.-F., Meyssignac, B., Faugère, Y., Guerou, A., Ablain, M., Pujol, M.-I., Dufau, C., and Dibarboure, G.: Copernicus Sea Level Space Observations: A Basis for Assessing Mitigation and Developing Adaptation Strategies to Sea Level Rise, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 704721, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.704721, 2021.
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1786–1793, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105, 2008.
Leppäranta, M.: Land–ice interaction in the Baltic Sea, Est. J. Earth Sci., 62, 2–14, https://doi.org/10.3176/earth.2013.01, 2013.
Levermann, A. and Winkelmann, R.: A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016.
Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Albrecht, T., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Huybrechts, P., Jordan, J., Leguy, G., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Rodehacke, C., Seroussi, H., Sutter, J., Zhang, T., Van Breedam, J., Calov, R., DeConto, R., Dumas, C., Garbe, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kleiner, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Meinshausen, M., Ng, E., Nowicki, S. M. J., Perego, M., Price, S. F., Saito, F., Schlegel, N.-J., Sun, S., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2), Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020.
Lionello, P. and Sanna, A.: Mediterranean wave climate variability and its links with NAO and Indian Monsoon, Clim. Dynam., 611–623, 2005.
Lionello, P., Planton, S., and Rodo, X.: Preface: Trends and climate change in the Mediterranean region, Glob. Planet. Change, 63, 87–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.06.004, 2008.
Lionello, P., Conte, D., Marzo, L., and Scarascia, L.: The contrasting effect of increasing mean sea level and decreasing storminess on the maximum water level during storms along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea in the mid 21st century, Glob. Planet. Change, 151, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.012, 2017.
Lionello, P., Barriopedro, D., Ferrarin, C., Nicholls, R. J., Orlić, M., Raicich, F., Reale, M., Umgiesser, G., Vousdoukas, M., and Zanchettin, D.: Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021a.
Lionello, P., Nicholls, R. J., Umgiesser, G., and Zanchettin, D.: Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021b.
Llovel, W., Penduff, T., Meyssignac, B., Molines, J., Terray, L., Bessières, L., and Barnier, B.: Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13405–13413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838, 2018.
Lobeto, H., Menendez, M., and Losada, I. J.: Future behavior of wind wave extremes due to climate change, Sci. Rep., 11, 7869, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86524-4, 2021a.
Lobeto, H., Menendez, M., and Losada, I. J.: Projections of Directional Spectra Help to Unravel the Future Behavior of Wind Waves, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 655490, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.655490, 2021b.
Lobeto, H., Menendez, M., Losada, I. J., and Hemer, M.: The effect of climate change on wind-wave directional spectra, Glob. Planet. Change, 213, 103820, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103820, 2022.
Maagard, L. and Krauss, W.: Spektren der Wasserstandsschwankungen der Ostsee im Jahre 1958, Kiel. Meeresforsch., 22, 155–162, 1966.
Madsen, K. S., Høyer, J. L., Suursaar, Ü., She, J., and Knudsen, P.: Sea Level Trends and Variability of the Baltic Sea From 2D Statistical Reconstruction and Altimetry, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 243, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00243, 2019.
Mangini, F., Chafik, L., Bonaduce, A., Bertino, L., and Nilsen, J. E. Ø.: Sea-level variability and change along the Norwegian coast between 2003 and 2018 from satellite altimetry, tide gauges, and hydrography, Ocean Sci., 18, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-331-2022, 2022.
Marcos, M. and Tsimplis, M. N.: Coastal sea level trends in Southern Europe, Geophys. J. Int., 175, 70–82, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03892.x, 2008.
Marcos, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Spatiotemporal changes in extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 7031–7048, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013065, 2017.
Marcos, M., Tsimplis, M. N., and Shaw, A. G. P.: Sea level extremes in southern Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C01007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC004912, 2009.
Marcos, M., Calafat, F. M., Berihuete, Á., and Dangendorf, S.: Long-term variations in global sea level extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 8115–8134, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011173, 2015a.
Marcos, M., Calafat, F. M., Berihuete, Á., and Dangendorf, S.: Long-term variations in global sea level extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 8115–8134, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011173, 2015b.
Marcos, M., Marzeion, B., Dangendorf, S., Slangen, A. B. A., Palanisamy, H., and Fenoglio-Marc, L.: Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components, Surv. Geophys., 38, 329–348, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9373-3, 2017.
Marcos, M., Puyol, B., Amores, A., Pérez Gómez, B., Fraile, M. Á., and Talke, S. A.: Historical tide gauge sea-level observations in Alicante and Santander (Spain) since the 19th century, Geosci. Data J., 8, 144–153, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.112, 2021.
Marmer, H. A.: Tides and currents in New York harbor, U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, U.S. Government Printing Office, Special Publication number 111, LCCN 35026984, 198 pp., 1935.
Marshall, D. P. and Zanna, L.: A Conceptual Model of Ocean Heat Uptake under Climate Change, J. Climate, 27, 8444–8465, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00344.1, 2014.
Martínez-Asensio, A., Marcos, M., Tsimplis, M. N., Gomis, D., Josey, S., and Jordà, G.: Impact of the atmospheric climate modes on Mediterranean sea level variability, Glob. Planet. Change, 118, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.03.007, 2014.
Masina, M. and Lamberti, A.: A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels: JGR-Oceans-March 2013-Masina-Lamberti, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 3999–4016, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20313, 2013.
Masina, S., Pinardi, N., Cipollone, A., Banerjee, D. S., Lyubartsev, V., Von Schuckmann, K., Jackson, L., Escudier, R., Clementi, E., Aydogdu, A., and Iovino, D.: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation forcing the mean sea level in the Mediterranean Sea through the Gibraltar transport, in: Copernicus Ocean State Report, vol. 15(sup1), 1–220, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2022.2095169, 2022.
Mauri, E., Sitz, L., Gerin, R., Poulain, P.-M., Hayes, D., and Gildor, H.: On the Variability of the Circulation and Water Mass Properties in the Eastern Levantine Sea between September 2016–August 2017, Water, 11, 1741, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091741, 2019.
McRobie, A., Spencer, T., and Gerritsen, H.: The Big Flood: North Sea storm surge, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 363, 1263–1270, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1567, 2005.
Meier, H., Broman, B., and Kjellström, E.: Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea, Clim. Res., 27, 59–75, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr027059, 2004.
Meier, H. E. M., Kniebusch, M., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Zorita, E., Elmgren, R., Myrberg, K., Ahola, M. P., Bartosova, A., Bonsdorff, E., Börgel, F., Capell, R., Carlén, I., Carlund, T., Carstensen, J., Christensen, O. B., Dierschke, V., Frauen, C., Frederiksen, M., Gaget, E., Galatius, A., Haapala, J. J., Halkka, A., Hugelius, G., Hünicke, B., Jaagus, J., Jüssi, M., Käyhkö, J., Kirchner, N., Kjellström, E., Kulinski, K., Lehmann, A., Lindström, G., May, W., Miller, P. A., Mohrholz, V., Müller-Karulis, B., Pavón-Jordán, D., Quante, M., Reckermann, M., Rutgersson, A., Savchuk, O. P., Stendel, M., Tuomi, L., Viitasalo, M., Weisse, R., and Zhang, W.: Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022a.
Meier, H. E. M., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Dutheil, C., Börgel, F., Safonova, K., Christensen, O. B., and Kjellström, E.: Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022b.
Meier, H. E. M., Reckermann, M., Langner, J., Smith, B., and Didenkulova, I.: Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023.
Melet, A. and Meyssignac, B.: Explaining the Spread in Global Mean Thermosteric Sea Level Rise in CMIP5 Climate Models, J. Climate, 28, 9918–9940, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0200.1, 2015.
Melet, A., Meyssignac, B., Almar, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 234–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0088-y, 2018.
Melet, A., Almar, R., Hemer, M., Le Cozannet, G., Meyssignac, B., and Ruggiero, P.: Contribution of Wave Setup to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016078, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016078, 2020.
Melet, A., Buontempo, C., Mattiuzzi, M., Salamon, P., Bahurel, P., Breyiannis, G., Burgess, S., Crosnier, L., Le Traon, P.-Y., Mentaschi, L., Nicolas, J., Solari, L., Vamborg, F., and Voukouvalas, E.: European Copernicus Services to Inform on Sea-Level Rise Adaptation: Current Status and Perspectives, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 703425, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.703425, 2021.
Melet, A. V., Hallberg, R., and Marshall, D. P.: The role of ocean mixing in the climate system, in: Ocean Mixing, Elsevier, 5–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821512-8.00009-8, 2022.
Meli, M., Camargo, C. M. L., Olivieri, M., Slangen, A. B. A., and Romagnoli, C.: Sea-level trend variability in the Mediterranean during the 1993–2019 period, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1150488, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1150488, 2023.
Mengel, M. and Levermann, A.: Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 451–455, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2226, 2014.
Menna, M., Suarez, N. C. R., Civitarese, G., Gačić, M., Rubino, A., and Poulain, P.-M.: Decadal variations of circulation in the Central Mediterranean and its interactions with mesoscale gyres, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 164, 14–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.02.004, 2019.
Menna, M., Gerin, R., Notarstefano, G., Mauri, E., Bussani, A., Pacciaroni, M., and Poulain, P.-M.: On the Circulation and Thermohaline Properties of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 671469, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.671469, 2021.
Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Dosio, A., and Feyen, L.: Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2416–2426, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072488, 2017.
Meucci, A., Young, I. R., Hemer, M., Kirezci, E., and Ranasinghe, R.: Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz7295, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz7295, 2020.
Meyssignac, B., Piecuch, C. G., Merchant, C. J., Racault, M.-F., Palanisamy, H., MacIntosh, C., Sathyendranath, S., and Brewin, R.: Causes of the Regional Variability in Observed Sea Level, Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Colour Over the Period 1993–2011, Surv. Geophys., 38, 187–215, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9383-1, 2017.
Milne, G. A., Davis, J. L., Mitrovica, J. X., Scherneck, H.-G., Johansson, J. M., Vermeer, M., and Koivula, H.: Space-Geodetic Constraints on Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Fennoscandia, Science, 291, 2381–2385, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1057022, 2001.
Mitrovica, J. X., Hay, C. C., Kopp, R. E., Harig, C., and Latychev, K.: Quantifying the Sensitivity of Sea Level Change in Coastal Localities to the Geometry of Polar Ice Mass Flux, J. Climate, 31, 3701–3709, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0465.1, 2018.
Mohamed, B. and Skiliris, N.: Steric and atmospheric contributions to interannual sea level variability in the eastern mediterranean sea over 1993–2019, Oceanologia, 64, 50–62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2021.09.001, 2022.
Mohamed, B., Abdallah, A. M., Alam El-Din, K., Nagy, H., and Shaltout, M.: Inter-Annual Variability and Trends of Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature in the Mediterranean Sea over the Last 25 Years, Pure Appl. Geophys., 176, 3787–3810, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02156-w, 2019.
Monserrat, S., Vilibić, I., and Rabinovich, A. B.: Meteotsunamis: atmospherically induced destructive ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 1035–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-1035-2006, 2006.
Morim, J., Hemer, M., Cartwright, N., Strauss, D., and Andutta, F.: On the concordance of 21st century wind-wave climate projections, Glob. Planet. Change, 167, 160–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.05.005, 2018.
Morim, J., Hemer, M., Wang, X. L., Cartwright, N., Trenham, C., Semedo, A., Young, I., Bricheno, L., Camus, P., Casas-Prat, M., Erikson, L., Mentaschi, L., Mori, N., Shimura, T., Timmermans, B., Aarnes, O., Breivik, O., Behrens, A., Dobrynin, M., Menendez, M., Staneva, J., Wehner, M., Wolf, J., Kamranzad, B., Webb, A., Stopa, J., and Andutta, F.: Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5, 2019.
Morim, J., Vitousek, S., Hemer, M., Reguero, B., Erikson, L., Casas-Prat, M., Wang, X. L., Semedo, A., Mori, N., Shimura, T., Mentaschi, L., and Timmermans, B.: Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 074056, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1013, 2021.
Morim, J., Wahl, T., Vitousek, S., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Young, I., and Hemer, M.: Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning, Sci. Adv., 9, eade3170, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade3170, 2023.
Mourre, B., Santana, A., Buils, A., Gautreau, L., Ličer, M., Jansà, A., Casas, B., Amengual, B., and Tintoré, J.: On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands: sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations, Nat. Hazards, 106, 1315–1336, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03908-x, 2021.
Mudersbach, C., Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., and Jensen, J.: Trends in high sea levels of German North Sea gauges compared to regional mean sea level changes, Cont. Shelf Res., 65, 111–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.06.016, 2013.
Muis, S., Apecechea, M. I., Dullaart, J., de Lima Rego, J., Madsen, K. S., Su, J., Yan, K., and Verlaan, M.: A High-Resolution Global Dataset of Extreme Sea Levels, Tides, and Storm Surges, Including Future Projections, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 263, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00263, 2020.
Muis, S., Aerts, J., Álvarez Antolínez, J. A., Dullaart, J., Duong, T. M., Erikson, L., Haarmsa, R., Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Mengel, M., Le Bars, D., O'Neill, A., Ranasinghe, R., Roberts, M., Verlaan, M., Ward, P. J., and Yan, K.: Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models, Earths Future, 11, e2023EF003479, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479, 2023.
Musić, S. and Nicković, S.: 44-year wave hindcast for the Eastern Mediterranean, Coast. Eng., 55, 872–880, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.02.024, 2008.
Naughten, K. A., Holland, P. R., and De Rydt, J.: Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 1222–1228, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x, 2023.
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment, PLOS ONE, 10, e0118571, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571, 2015.
Neumann, G.: Eigenschwingungen der Ostsee, Archiv der Deutschen Seewarte und des Marineobservatoriums, Bd. 61, No. 4, Hamburg, 1941.
Nias, I. J., Nowicki, S., Felikson, D., and Loomis, B.: Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 128, e2022JF006914, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006914, 2023.
Nicholls, R. J., Lincke, D., Hinkel, J., Brown, S., Vafeidis, A. T., Meyssignac, B., Hanson, S. E., Merkens, J.-L., and Fang, J.: A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 338–342, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z, 2021.
Oelsmann, J., Marcos, M., Passaro, M., Sanchez, L., Dettmering, D., Dangendorf, S., and Seitz, F.: Regional variations in relative sea-level changes influenced by nonlinear vertical land motion, Nat. Geosci., 17, 137–144, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01357-2, 2024.
Okal, E. A.: On the possibility of seismic recording of meteotsunamis, Nat. Hazards, 106, 1125–1147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04146-x, 2021.
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Magnan, A., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., Cifuentes-Jara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F. I., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 321–445, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.006, 2019.
Orlić, M.: The first attempt at cataloguing tsunami-like waves of meteorological origin in Croatian coastal waters, Acta Adriat. Int. J. Mar. Sci., 56, 83–96, 2015.
Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., and Tonisson, H.: Sea ice shaping the shores, J. Coast. Res., 681–685, 2011.
Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., Schlegel, N.-J., Amory, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Horwath, M., Joughin, I., King, M. D., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Simon, K. M., Smith, B. E., Sørensen, L. S., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P. L., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Blazquez, A., Colgan, W., Engdahl, M. E., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallée, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Gourmelen, N., Groh, A., Gunter, B. C., Harig, C., Helm, V., Khan, S. A., Kittel, C., Konrad, H., Langen, P. L., Lecavalier, B. S., Liang, C.-C., Loomis, B. D., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S. H., Mottram, R., Mouginot, J., Nilsson, J., Noël, B., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Roca, M., Sasgen, I., Save, H. V., Seo, K.-W., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Schröder, L., Simonsen, S. B., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T. C., Vishwakarma, B. D., van Wessem, J. M., Wiese, D., van der Wal, W., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023.
Ozsahin, E., Ozdes, M., Ozturk, M., and Yang, D.: Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Thrace Peninsula: Implications for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise, Remote Sens., 15, 5592, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15235592, 2023.
Palmer, M. D., Howard, T., Tinker, J., Lowe, J. A., Bricheno, L., Calvert, D., Edwards, T., Gregory, J., Harris, G., Krijnen, J., Pickering, M., Roberts, C. D., and Wolf, J.: UKCP18 marine report, MetOffice Report, 133 pp., https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/522257 (last access: 2 July 2024), 2018.
Paprotny, D., Morales-Nápoles, O., and Jonkman, S. N.: HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, 2018.
Pardaens, A. K., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century, Clim. Dynam., 36, 2015–2033, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0738-x, 2011.
Park, J.-Y., Schloesser, F., Timmermann, A., Choudhury, D., Lee, J.-Y., and Nellikkattil, A. B.: Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model, Nat. Commun., 14, 636, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9, 2023.
Passaro, M., Müller, F. L., Oelsmann, J., Rautiainen, L., Dettmering, D., Hart-Davis, M. G., Abulaitijiang, A., Andersen, O. B., Høyer, J. L., Madsen, K. S., Ringgaard, I. M., Särkkä, J., Scarrott, R., Schwatke, C., Seitz, F., Tuomi, L., Restano, M., and Benveniste, J.: Absolute Baltic Sea Level Trends in the Satellite Altimetry Era: A Revisit, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 647607, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.647607, 2021.
Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le Clec'H, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Van De Wal, R., Van Den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091741, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741, 2021.
Pegler, S. S.: Marine ice sheet dynamics: the impacts of ice-shelf buttressing, J. Fluid Mech., 857, 605–647, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.741, 2018.
Pellikka, H., Leijala, U., Johansson, M. M., Leinonen, K., and Kahma, K. K.: Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland, Cont. Shelf Res., 157, 32–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2018.02.006, 2018.
Pellikka, H., Sarkka, J., Johansson, J., and Pettersson, H.: Probability distributions for mean sea level and storm contribution up to 2100 AD at Forsmark, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), https://www.skb.com/publication/2494748/TR-19-23.pdf (last access: 2 July 2024), 2020.
Peltier, W. R.: Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) Model and Grace, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 32, 111–149, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.082503.144359, 2004.
Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F., and Drummond, R.: Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: The global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120, 450–487, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011176, 2015.
Pérez-Gómez, B., García-León, M., García-Valdecasas, J., Clementi, E., Mösso Aranda, C., Pérez-Rubio, S., Masina, S., Coppini, G., Molina-Sánchez, R., Muñoz-Cubillo, A., García Fletcher, A., Sánchez González, J. F., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., and Álvarez Fanjul, E.: Understanding Sea Level Processes During Western Mediterranean Storm Gloria, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 647437, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.647437, 2021.
Pérez Gómez, B., Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., Međugorac, I., Ličer, M., Testut, L., Fraboul, C., Marcos, M., Abdellaoui, H., Álvarez Fanjul, E., Barbalić, D., Casas, B., Castaño-Tierno, A., Čupić, S., Drago, A., Fraile, M. A., Galliano, D. A., Gauci, A., Gloginja, B., Martín Guijarro, V., Jeromel, M., Larrad Revuelto, M., Lazar, A., Keskin, I. H., Medvedev, I., Menassri, A., Meslem, M. A., Mihanović, H., Morucci, S., Niculescu, D., Quijano de Benito, J. M., Pascual, J., Palazov, A., Picone, M., Raicich, F., Said, M., Salat, J., Sezen, E., Simav, M., Sylaios, G., Tel, E., Tintoré, J., Zaimi, K., and Zodiatis, G.: Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas, Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022.
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL): Tide Gauge Data, PSMSL [data set], http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/ (last access: 2 July 2024), 2024.
Pickering, M. D., Horsburgh, K. J., Blundell, J. R., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Nicholls, R. J., Verlaan, M., and Wells, N. C.: The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides, Cont. Shelf Res., 142, 50–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.02.004, 2017.
Piecuch, C. G. and Quinn, K. J.: El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget, Ocean Sci., 12, 1165–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1165-2016, 2016.
Pinardi, N., Bonaduce, A., Navarra, A., Dobricic, S., and Oddo, P.: The Mean Sea Level Equation and Its Application to the Mediterranean Sea, J. Climate, 27, 442–447, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00139.1, 2014.
Piña-Valdés, J., Socquet, A., Beauval, C., Doin, M., D'Agostino, N., and Shen, Z.: 3D GNSS Velocity Field Sheds Light on the Deformation Mechanisms in Europe: Effects of the Vertical Crustal Motion on the Distribution of Seismicity, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 127, e2021JB023451, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023451, 2022.
Pineau-Guillou, L., Lazure, P., and Wöppelmann, G.: Large-scale changes of the semidiurnal tide along North Atlantic coasts from 1846 to 2018, Ocean Sci., 17, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-17-2021, 2021.
Pomaro, A., Cavaleri, L., and Lionello, P.: Climatology and trends of the Adriatic Sea wind waves: analysis of a 37-year long instrumental data set, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 4237–4250, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5066, 2017.
Prandi, P., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Spada, G., Ribes, A., and Benveniste, J.: Local sea level trends, accelerations and uncertainties over 1993–2019, Sci. Data, 8, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00786-7, 2021.
Prandle, D. and Wolf, J.: The interaction of surge and tide in the North Sea and River Thames, Geophys. J. Int., 55, 203–216, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1978.tb04758.x, 1978.
Proudman, J.: The Effects on the Sea of Changes in Atmospheric Pressure, Geophys. J. Int., 2, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1929.tb05408.x, 1929.
Proudman, J.: The propagation of tide and surge in an estuary, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. Math. Phys. Sci., 231, 8–24, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1955.0153, 1955.
Proudman, J.: Oscillations of tide and surge in an estuary of finite length, J. Fluid Mech., 2, 371–382, https://doi.org/10.1017/S002211205700018X, 1957.
Pugh, D.: Changing sea levels: effects of tides, weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 265 pp., ISBN 978-1934309094, 2004.
Pugh, D. and Woodworth, P.: Sea-Level Science: Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis and Mean Sea-Level Changes, 1st edn., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139235778, 2014.
Purkey, S. G., Johnson, G. C., and Chambers, D. P.: Relative contributions of ocean mass and deep steric changes to sea level rise between 1993 and 2013, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 7509–7522, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010180, 2014.
Rabinovich, A. B. and Monserrat, S.: Generation of Meteorological Tsunamis (Large Amplitude Seiches) Near the Balearic and Kuril Islands, Nat. Hazards, 18, 27–55, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008096627047, 1998.
Raicich, F.: Recent evolution of sea-level extremes at Trieste (Northern Adriatic), Cont. Shelf Res., 23, 225–235, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(02)00224-8, 2003.
Raicich, F.: A 1782–1794 sea level record at Trieste (northern Adriatic), Hist. Geo Space. Sci., 11, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/hgss-11-1-2020, 2020.
Räisänen, J.: Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region and Environmental Impacts, Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.634, 2017.
Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Arnell, E., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A., Dessai, S., Islam, A. S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Silliman, J., Sylla, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., and Zaaboul, R.: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1767–1926, ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, 2021.
Rasmussen, D. J., Bittermann, K., Buchanan, M. K., Kulp, S., Strauss, B. H., Kopp, R. E., and Oppenheimer, M.: Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034040, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87, 2018.
Rasmussen, D. J., Kulp, S., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., and Strauss, B. H.: Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts, Clim. Change, 170, 30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6, 2022.
Ratsimandresy, A. W., Sotillo, M. G., Carretero Albiach, J. C., Álvarez Fanjul, E., and Hajji, H.: A 44-year high-resolution ocean and atmospheric hindcast for the Mediterranean Basin developed within the HIPOCAS Project, Coast. Eng., 55, 827–842, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.02.025, 2008.
Ray, R. D., Loomis, B. D., and Zlotnicki, V.: The mean seasonal cycle in relative sea level from satellite altimetry and gravimetry, J. Geod., 95, 80, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-021-01529-1, 2021.
Reese, R., Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Seroussi, H., and Winkelmann, R.: The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020.
Reese, R., Garbe, J., Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Naughten, K. A., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M., and Winkelmann, R.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded, The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023.
Reinert, M., Pineau-Guillou, L., Raillard, N., and Chapron, B.: Seasonal Shift in Storm Surges at Brest Revealed by Extreme Value Analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2021JC017794, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017794, 2021.
Ribeiro, A., Barbosa, S. M., Scotto, M. G., and Donner, R. V.: Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea, Tellus Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 66, 20921, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.20921, 2014.
Richter, A., Groh, A., and Dietrich, R.: Geodetic observation of sea-level change and crustal deformation in the Baltic Sea region, Phys. Chem. Earth ABC, 53–54, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.04.011, 2012.
Richter, K., Meyssignac, B., Slangen, A. B. A., Melet, A., Church, J. A., Fettweis, X., Marzeion, B., Agosta, C., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Spada, G., Palmer, M. D., Roberts, C. D., and Champollion, N.: Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094079, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e, 2020.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Van Wessem, M. J., and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1095–1103, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019.
Robel, A. A., Seroussi, H., and Roe, G. H.: Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 14887–14892, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904822116, 2019.
Roberts, C. D., Calvert, D., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L., Palmer, M. D., and Smith, D.: On the Drivers and Predictability of Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations in Regional Sea Level, J. Climate, 29, 7565–7585, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0886.1, 2016.
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 429–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1449, 2012.
Roland, A., Cucco, A., Ferrarin, C., Hsu, T.-W., Liau, J.-M., Ou, S.-H., Umgiesser, G., and Zanke, U.: On the development and verification of a 2-D coupled wave-current model on unstructured meshes, J. Mar. Syst., 78, S244–S254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.026, 2009.
Romero, R. and Emanuel, K.: Medicane risk in a changing climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5992–6001, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50475, 2013.
Romero, R. and Emanuel, K.: Climate Change and Hurricane-Like Extratropical Cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic Polar Lows and Medicanes Based on CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 30, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0255.1, 2017.
Romero, R., Vich, M., and Ramis, C.: A pragmatic approach for the numerical prediction of meteotsunamis in Ciutadella harbour (Balearic Islands), Ocean Model., 142, 101441, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101441, 2019.
Rose, S. K., Andersen, O. B., Passaro, M., Ludwigsen, C. A., and Schwatke, C.: Arctic Ocean Sea Level Record from the Complete Radar Altimetry Era: 1991–2018, Remote Sens., 11, 1672, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11141672, 2019.
Rosier, S. H. R., Reese, R., Donges, J. F., De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Winkelmann, R.: The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021.
Roustan, J.-B., Pineau-Guillou, L., Chapron, B., Raillard, N., and Reinert, M.: Shift of the storm surge season in Europe due to climate variability, Sci. Rep., 12, 8210, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12356-5, 2022.
Royston, S., Dutt Vishwakarma, B., Westaway, R., Rougier, J., Sha, Z., and Bamber, J.: Can We Resolve the Basin-Scale Sea Level Trend Budget From GRACE Ocean Mass?, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2019JC015535, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015535, 2020.
Ruić, K., Šepić, J., Mlinar, M., and Međugorac, I.: Contribution of high-frequency (T < 2 h) sea level oscillations to the Adriatic sea level maxima, Nat. Hazards, 116, 3747–3777, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05834-0, 2023.
Rutgersson, A., Kjellström, E., Haapala, J., Stendel, M., Danilovich, I., Drews, M., Jylhä, K., Kujala, P., Larsén, X. G., Halsnæs, K., Lehtonen, I., Luomaranta, A., Nilsson, E., Olsson, T., Särkkä, J., Tuomi, L., and Wasmund, N.: Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022.
Samuelsson, M. and Stigebrandt, A.: Main characteristics of the long-term sea level variability in the Baltic sea, Tellus A, 48, 672–683, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00006.x, 1996.
Sannino, G., Carillo, A., Iacono, R., Napolitano, E., Palma, M., Pisacane, G., and Struglia, M.: Modelling present and future climate in the Mediterranean Sea: a focus on sea-level change, Clim. Dynam., 59, 357–391, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06132-w, 2022.
Scharffenberg, M. G. and Stammer, D.: Time-Space Sampling-Related Uncertainties of Altimetric Global Mean Sea Level Estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 7743–7755, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014785, 2019.
Schindelegger, M., Green, J. A. M., Wilmes, S.-B., and Haigh, I. D.: Can We Model the Effect of Observed Sea Level Rise on Tides?, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 4593–4609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013959, 2018.
Schlemm, T., Feldmann, J., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Schureman, P.: Tides and Currents in Hudson River, in: Coast and Geodetic Survey Special Publication, U.S. Department of Commerce, ISBN 978-0266815631, 1934.
Seifert, T. and Kayser, B.: A high-resolution spherical grid topography of the Baltic Sea, Meereswiss. Ber. Warn., 9, 73–88, 1995.
Šepić, J., Rabinovich, A. B., and Sytov, V. N.: Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling, Pure Appl. Geophys., 175, 1545–1572, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1729-1, 2018.
Sérazin, G., Penduff, T., Grégorio, S., Barnier, B., Molines, J.-M., and Terray, L.: Intrinsic Variability of Sea Level from Global Ocean Simulations: Spatiotemporal Scales, J. Climate, 28, 4279–4292, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00554.1, 2015.
Sergienko, O. V. and Wingham, D. J.: Bed topography and marine ice-sheet stability, J. Glaciol., 68, 124–138, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.79, 2022.
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.
Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., Gregory, J. M., Lee, V., Mathiot, P., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022.
Simon, B.: Statistiques des niveaux marins extrêmes de pleine mer en Manche et Atlantique, CD-Rom, Produit commun SHOM-CETMEF, 2008.
Simpson, M., Ravndal, O., Sande, H., Nilsen, J., Kierulf, H., Vestøl, O., and Steffen, H.: Projected 21st Century Sea-Level Changes, Observed Sea Level Extremes, and Sea Level Allowances for Norway, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 5, 36, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030036, 2017.
Skjong, M., Naess, A., and Næss, O. E. B.: Statistics of Extreme Sea Levels for Locations along the Norwegian Coast, J. Coast. Res., 29, 1029–1048, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00208.1, 2013.
Skliris, N., Zika, J. D., Herold, L., Josey, S. A., and Marsh, R.: Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations, Clim. Dynam., 51, 2857–2876, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4053-7, 2018.
Slangen, A., van de Wal, R., Reerink, T., de Winter, R., Hunter, J., Woodworth, P., and Edwards, T.: The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 5, 21, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021, 2017.
Slangen, A. B. A., Church, J. A., Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., Marzeion, B., and Richter, K.: Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 701–705, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991, 2016.
Slangen, A. B. A., Haasnoot, M., and Winter, G.: Rethinking Sea-Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences, Earths Future, 10, e2021EF002576, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002576, 2022.
Slangen, A. B. A., Palmer, M. D., Camargo, C. M. L., Church, J. A., Edwards, T. L., Hermans, T. H. J., Hewitt, H. T., Garner, G. G., Gregory, J. M., Kopp, R. E., Santos, V. M., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond, Camb. Prisms Coast. Futur., 1, e7, https://doi.org/10.1017/cft.2022.8, 2023.
Slater, D. A., Felikson, D., Straneo, F., Goelzer, H., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Fettweis, X., and Nowicki, S.: Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution , The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020.
Slater, T., Shepherd, A., McMillan, M., Leeson, A., Gilbert, L., Muir, A., Munneke, P. K., Noël, B., Fettweis, X., Van Den Broeke, M., and Briggs, K.: Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations, Nat. Commun., 12, 6069, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26229-4, 2021.
Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson, J., Paolo, F. S., Holschuh, N., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B., Harbeck, K., Markus, T., Neumann, T., Siegfried, M. R., and Zwally, H. J.: Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes, Science, 368, 1239–1242, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5845, 2020.
Spencer, T., Brooks, S. M., Evans, B. R., Tempest, J. A., and Möller, I.: Southern North Sea storm surge event of 5 December 2013: Water levels, waves and coastal impacts, Earth-Sci. Rev., 146, 120–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.04.002, 2015.
Staneva, J., Alari, V., Breivik, Ø., Bidlot, J.-R., and Mogensen, K.: Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea, Ocean Dynam., 67, 81–101, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-1009-0, 2017.
Staneva, J., Grayek, S., Behrens, A., and Günther, H.: GCOAST: Skill assessments of coupling wave and circulation models (NEMO-WAM), J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 1730, 012071, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1730/1/012071, 2021.
Steffelbauer, D. B., Riva, R. E. M., Timmermans, J. S., Kwakkel, J. H., and Bakker, M.: Evidence of regional sea-level rise acceleration for the North Sea, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 074002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac753a, 2022.
Sterlini, P., Le Bars, D., De Vries, H., and Ridder, N.: Understanding the spatial variation of sea level rise in the North Sea using satellite altimetry, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 6498–6511, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012907, 2017.
Stramska, M. and Chudziak, N.: Recent multiyear trends in the Baltic Sea level, Oceanologia, 55, 319–337, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.55-2.319, 2013.
Straneo, F. and Heimbach, P.: North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers, Nature, 504, 36–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12854, 2013.
Sun, S., Pattyn, F., Simon, E. G., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Calov, R., Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kazmierczak, E., Kleiner, T., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pollard, D., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Seroussi, H., Schlemm, T., Sutter, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., and Zhang, T.: Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP), J. Glaciol., 66, 891–904, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67, 2020.
Sündermann, J. and Pohlmann, T.: A brief analysis of North Sea physics, Oceanologia, 53, 663–689, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-3.663, 2011.
Sweet, W. V., Hamlington, B. D., Kopp, R. E., Weaver, C. P., Barnard, P. L., Bekaert, D., Brooks, W., Craghan, M., Dusek, G., Frederikse, T., Garner, G. G., Genz, A. S., Krasting, J. P., Larour, E., Marcy, D., Marra, J. J., Obeysekera, J., Osler, M., Pendleton, M., Roman, D., Schmied, L., Veatch, W., White, K. D., and Zuzak, C.: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines, NOAA Technical Report NOS 01, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp., https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf (last access: 2 July 2024), 2022.
Tadesse, M., Wahl, T., and Cid, A.: Data-Driven Modeling of Global Storm Surges, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 260, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00260, 2020.
Tadesse, M. G. and Wahl, T.: A database of global storm surge reconstructions, Sci. Data, 8, 125, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00906-x, 2021.
Tadesse, M. G., Wahl, T., Rashid, M. M., Dangendorf, S., Rodríguez-Enríquez, A., and Talke, S. A.: Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions, Sci. Rep., 12, 13307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x, 2022.
Tamisiea, M. E.: Ongoing glacial isostatic contributions to observations of sea level change, Geophys. J. Int., 186, 1036–1044, 2011.
Tamisiea, M. E., Hughes, C. W., Williams, S. D. P., and Bingley, R. M.: Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 372, 20130336, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0336, 2014.
Teatini, P., Tosi, L., Strozzi, T., Carbognin, L., Cecconi, G., Rosselli, R., and Libardo, S.: Resolving land subsi- dence within the Venice Lagoon by persistent scatterer SAR interferometry, Phys. Chem. Earth, 40–41, 72–79, 2012.
Tebaldi, C., Ranasinghe, R., Vousdoukas, M., Rasmussen, D. J., Vega-Westhoff, B., Kirezci, E., Kopp, R. E., Sriver, R., and Mentaschi, L.: Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 746–751, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1, 2021.
Teferle, F. N., Bingley, R. M., Orliac, E. J., Williams, S. D. P., Woodworth, P. L., McLaughlin, D., Baker, T. F., Shennan, I., Milne, G. A., Bradley, S. L., and Hansen, D. N.: Crustal motions in Great Britain: evidence from continuous GPS, absolute gravity and Holocene sea level data, Geophys. J. Int., 178, 23–46, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04185.x, 2009.
The Climate Change Initiative Coastal Sea Level Team, Benveniste, J., Birol, F., Calafat, F., Cazenave, A., Dieng, H., Gouzenes, Y., Legeais, J. F., Léger, F., Niño, F., Passaro, M., Schwatke, C., and Shaw, A.: Coastal sea level anomalies and associated trends from Jason satellite altimetry over 2002–2018, Sci. Data, 7, 357, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00694-w, 2020.
The IMBIE team: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018.
The IMBIE Team: Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018, Nature, 579, 233–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2, 2020.
Tinker, J., Palmer, M. D., Copsey, D., Howard, T., Lowe, J. A., and Hermans, T. H. J.: Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas, Clim. Dynam., 55, 2207–2236, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0, 2020.
Todd, A., Zanna, L., Couldrey, M., Gregory, J., Wu, Q., Church, J. A., Farneti, R., Navarro-Labastida, R., Lyu, K., Saenko, O., Yang, D., and Zhang, X.: Ocean-Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002027TS141, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002027, 2020.
Toimil, A., Losada, I. J., Díaz-Simal, P., Izaguirre, C., and Camus, P.: Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding, Clim. Change, 145, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2104-z, 2017.
Toomey, T., Amores, A., Marcos, M., Orfila, A., and Romero, R.: Coastal Hazards of Tropical-Like Cyclones Over the Mediterranean Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC017964, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017964, 2022a.
Toomey, T., Amores, A., Marcos, M., and Orfila, A.: Coastal sea levels and wind-waves in the Mediterranean Sea since 1950 from a high-resolution ocean reanalysis, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 991504, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.991504, 2022b.
Tsimplis, M. N., Josey, S. A., Rixen, M., and Stanev, E. V.: On the forcing of sea level in the Black Sea: Sea Level Forcing in the Black Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 109, C08015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC002185, 2004.
Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., Ferrarin, C., Cucco, A., Lionello, P., Zanchettin, D., Papa, A., Tosoni, A., Ferla, M., Coraci, E., Morucci, S., Crosato, F., Bonometto, A., Valentini, A., Orlić, M., Haigh, I. D., Nielsen, J. W., Bertin, X., Fortunato, A. B., Pérez Gómez, B., Alvarez Fanjul, E., Paradis, D., Jourdan, D., Pasquet, A., Mourre, B., Tintoré, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021.
Vacchi, M., Ghilardi, M., Melis, R. T., Spada, G., Giaime, M., Marriner, N., Lorscheid, T., Morhange, C., Burjachs, F., and Rovere, A.: New relative sea-level insights into the isostatic history of the Western Mediterranean, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 201, 396–408, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.10.025, 2018.
van den Broeke, M. R., Enderlin, E. M., Howat, I. M., Kuipers Munneke, P., Noël, B. P. Y., van de Berg, W. J., van Meijgaard, E., and Wouters, B.: On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change, The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016.
van den Hurk, B., Bisaro, A., Haasnoot, M., Nicholls, R. J., Rehdanz, K., and Stuparu, D.: Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales, Clim. Risk Manag., 35, 100403, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403, 2022.
Van De Wal, R. S. W., Nicholls, R. J., Behar, D., McInnes, K., Stammer, D., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., DeConto, R., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Haasnoot, M., Haigh, I. D., Hinkel, J., Horton, B. P., James, T. S., Jenkins, A., LeCozannet, G., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Marzeion, B., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Price, S. F., Seroussi, H., Sun, S., Veatch, W., and White, K.: A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners, Earths Future, 10, e2022EF002751, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751, 2022.
van de Wal, R., Melet, A., Bellafiore, D., Camus, P., Ferrarin, C., Oude Essink, G., Haigh, I. D., Lionello, P., Luijendijk, A., Toimil, A., Staneva, J., and Vousdoukas, M.: Sea Level Rise in Europe: Impacts and consequences, in: Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLRE1), edited by: van den Hurk, B., Pinardi, N., Kiefer, T., Larkin, K., Manderscheid, P., and Richter, K., Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024.
van Wessem, J. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B., and Lhermitte, S.: Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01577-1, 2023.
Vellinga, N. E., Hoitink, A. J. F., Van Der Vegt, M., Zhang, W., and Hoekstra, P.: Human impacts on tides overwhelm the effect of sea level rise on extreme water levels in the Rhine–Meuse delta, Coast. Eng., 90, 40–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.04.005, 2014.
Vestøl, O., Ågren, J., Steffen, H., Kierulf, H., and Tarasov, L.: NKG2016LU: a new land uplift model for Fennoscandia and the Baltic Region, J. Geod., 93, 1759–1779, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01280-8, 2019.
Vignudelli, S., Birol, F., Benveniste, J., Fu, L.-L., Picot, N., Raynal, M., and Roinard, H.: Satellite Altimetry Measurements of Sea Level in the Coastal Zone, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1319–1349, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09569-1, 2019.
Vilibić, I. and Šepić, J.: Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales, Sci. Rep., 7, 40818, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40818, 2017.
Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., Dunić, N., Sevault, F., Monserrat, S., and Jordà, G.: Proxy-Based Assessment of Strength and Frequency of Meteotsunamis in Future Climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 10501–10508, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079566, 2018.
Vilibić, I., Rabinovich, A. B., and Anderson, E. J.: Special issue on the global perspective on meteotsunami science: editorial, Nat. Hazards, 106, 1087–1104, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04679-9, 2021.
Villalonga, J., Amores, À., Monserrat, S., Marcos, M., Gomis, D., and Jordà, G.: Observational study of the heterogeneous global meteotsunami generated after the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Volcano eruption, Sci. Rep., 13, 8649, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35800-6, 2023.
Vinet, F., Lumbroso, D., Defossez, S., and Boissier, L.: A comparative analysis of the loss of life during two recent floods in France: the sea surge caused by the storm Xynthia and the flash flood in Var, Nat. Hazards, 61, 1179–1201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9975-5, 2012.
Volkov, D. L. and Landerer, F. W.: Internal and external forcing of sea level variability in the Black Sea, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2498-0, 2015.
Volkov, D. L., Johns, W. E., and Belonenko, T. V.: Dynamic response of the Black Sea elevation to intraseasonal fluctuations of the Mediterranean sea level, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 283–290, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066876, 2016.
von Schuckmann, K., Cheng, L., Palmer, M. D., Hansen, J., Tassone, C., Aich, V., Adusumilli, S., Beltrami, H., Boyer, T., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Desbruyères, D., Domingues, C., García-García, A., Gentine, P., Gilson, J., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Ishii, M., Johnson, G. C., Killick, R., King, B. A., Kirchengast, G., Kolodziejczyk, N., Lyman, J., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., Monier, M., Monselesan, D. P., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Schweiger, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Shepherd, A., Slater, D. A., Steiner, A. K., Straneo, F., Timmermans, M.-L., and Wijffels, S. E.: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020.
Von Storch, H. and Woth, K.: Storm surges: perspectives and options, Sustain. Sci., 3, 33–43, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-008-0044-2, 2008.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., and Feyen, L.: Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts: Extreme Sea Levels Along Europe's Coasts, Earths Future, 5, 304–323, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000505, 2017.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P., and Feyen, L.: Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard, Nat. Commun., 9, 2360, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w, 2018.
Wahl, T. and Chambers, D. P.: Climate controls multidecadal variability in U. S. extreme sea level records: U.S. Extreme Sea Levels and Climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 1274–1290, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011057, 2016.
Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P. L., Albrecht, F., Dillingh, D., Jensen, J., Nicholls, R. J., Weisse, R., and Wöppelmann, G.: Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present, Earth-Sci. Rev., 124, 51–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.05.003, 2013.
Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R. J., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hinkel, J., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis, Nat. Commun., 8, 16075, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075, 2017.
Wakelin, S. L., Woodworth, P. L., Flather, R. A., and Williams, J. A.: Sea-level dependence on the NAO over the NW European Continental Shelf: Sea Level Dependence on the NAO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017041, 2003.
WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group: Global sea-level budget 1993–present, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1551–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018, 2018.
Weertman, J.: Stability of ice-age ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 3783–3792, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ066i011p03783, 1961.
Weertman, J.: Stability of the Junction of an Ice Sheet and an Ice Shelf, J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000023327, 1974.
Weisse, R., Bellafiore, D., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F., Nicholls, R. J., Umgiesser, G., and Willems, P.: Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts, Coast. Eng., 87, 4–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.017, 2014.
Weisse, R., Dailidienė, I., Hünicke, B., Kahma, K., Madsen, K., Omstedt, A., Parnell, K., Schöne, T., Soomere, T., Zhang, W., and Zorita, E.: Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021.
Widlansky, M. J., Long, X., and Schloesser, F.: Increase in sea level variability with ocean warming associated with the nonlinear thermal expansion of seawater, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8, 2020.
Williams, J., Horsburgh, K. J., Williams, J. A., and Proctor, R. N. F.: Tide and skew surge independence: New insights for flood risk, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6410–6417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069522, 2016.
Wolf, J.: Surge-Tide Interaction in the North Sea and River Thames, in: Floods due to High Winds and Tides, edited by: Peregrine, D., Elsevier, New York, 75–94, ISBN 978-0125518208, 1981.
Wolski, T., Wiśniewski, B., Giza, A., Kowalewska-Kalkowska, H., Boman, H., Grabbi-Kaiv, S., Hammarklint, T., Holfort, J., and Lydeikaitė, Ž.: Extreme sea levels at selected stations on the Baltic Sea coast, Oceanologia, 56, 259–290, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.56-2.259, 2014.
Woodworth, P., Wöppelmann, G., Marcos, M., Gravelle, M., and Bingley, R.: Why We Must Tie Satellite Positioning to Tide Gauge Data, Eos, 98, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017EO064037, 2017.
Woodworth, P. L. and Blackman, D.: Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s, J. Climate, 17, 1190–1197, 2004.
Woodworth, P. L., Shaw, S. M., and Blackman, D. L.: Secular trends in mean tidal range around the British Isles and along the adjacent European coastline, Geophys. J. Int., 104, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1991.tb05704.x, 1991.
Woodworth, P. L., Tsimplis, M. N., Flather, R. A., and Shennan, I.: A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges, Geophys. J. Int., 136, 651–670, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00751.x, 1999.
Woodworth, P. L., Teferle, F. N., Bingley, R. M., Shennan, I., and Williams, S. D. P.: Trends in UK mean sea level revisited, Geophys. J. Int., 176, 19–30, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03942.x, 2009.
Woodworth, P. L., Menendez, M., and Gehrels, W. R.: Evidence for century-timescale acceleration in mean sea levels and for recent changes in extreme sea levels, Surv. Geophys., 32, 603–618, 2011.
Woodworth, P. L., Hunter, J. R., Marcos, M., Caldwell, P., Menéndez, M., and Haigh, I.: Towards a global higher‐frequency sea level dataset, Geosci. Data J., 3, 50–59, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.42, 2016.
Woodworth, P. L., Melet, A., Marcos, M., Ray, R. D., Wöppelmann, G., Sasaki, Y. N., Cirano, M., Hibbert, A., Huthnance, J. M., Monserrat, S., and Merrifield, M. A.: Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1351–1397, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09531-1, 2019.
Woodworth, P. L., Hunter, J. R., Marcos, M., and Hughes, C. W.: Towards reliable global allowances for sea level rise, Glob. Planet. Change, 203, 103522, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103522, 2021.
Wöppelmann, G. and Marcos, M.: Coastal sea level rise in southern Europe and the nonclimate contribution of vertical land motion: Sea Level Rise in Southern Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C01007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007469, 2012.
Wöppelmann, G. and Marcos, M.: Vertical land motion as a key to understanding sea level change and variability: Vertical Land Motion and Sea Level Change, Rev. Geophys., 54, 64–92, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000502, 2016.
Wöppelmann, G., Marcos, M., Coulomb, A., Martín Míguez, B., Bonnetain, P., Boucher, C., Gravelle, M., Simon, B., and Tiphaneau, P.: Rescue of the historical sea level record of Marseille (France) from 1885 to 1988 and its extension back to 1849–1851, J. Geod., 88, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-014-0728-6, 2014.
Woth, K.: North Sea storm surge statistics based on projections in a warmer climate: How important are the driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 2005GL023762, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023762, 2005.
Woth, K., Weisse, R., and Von Storch, H.: Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models, Ocean Dynam., 56, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-005-0024-3, 2006.
Wu, P., Wei, M., and D'Hondt, S.: Subsidence in Coastal Cities Throughout the World Observed by InSAR, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098477, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098477, 2022.
Wubber, C. and Krauss, W.: The two dimensional seiches of the Baltic Sea, Oceanol. Acta, 2, 435–446, 1979.
Wunsch, C. and Stammer, D.: Atmospheric loading and the oceanic “inverted barometer” effect, Rev. Geophys., 35, 79–107, 1997.
Yan, K., Muis, S., Irazoqui, M., and Verlaan, M.: Water level change time series for the European coast from 1977 to 2100 derived from climate projections, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.8c59054f, 2020.
Zanchettin, D., Bruni, S., Raicich, F., Lionello, P., Adloff, F., Androsov, A., Antonioli, F., Artale, V., Carminati, E., Ferrarin, C., Fofonova, V., Nicholls, R. J., Rubinetti, S., Rubino, A., Sannino, G., Spada, G., Thiéblemont, R., Tsimplis, M., Umgiesser, G., Vignudelli, S., Wöppelmann, G., and Zerbini, S.: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021.
Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison, J., and Heimbach, P.: Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1126–1131, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115, 2019.
Zemunik, P., Denamiel, C., Williams, J., and Vilibić, I.: High-frequency sea-level extremes: Global correlations to synoptic atmospheric patterns, Weather Clim. Extrem., 38, 100516, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100516, 2022.
Zickfeld, K., Solomon, S., and Gilford, D. M.: Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 657–662, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612066114, 2017.
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current...
Report
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint