Articles | Volume 5-opsr
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-21-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-21-2025
02 Jun 2025
 | OPSR | Chapter 8.2
 | 02 Jun 2025 | OPSR | Chapter 8.2

Improving accuracy and providing uncertainty estimations: ensemble methodologies for ocean forecasting

Ibrahim Hoteit, Eric Chassignet, and Mike Bell

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Cited articles

Albarakati, S., Lima, R., Theußl, T., Hoteit, I., and Knio, O.: Multi-objective risk-aware path planning in uncertain transient currents: an ensemble-based stochastic optimization approach, IEEE J. Oceanic Eng., 46, 1082–1098, https://doi.org/10.1109/JOE.2021.3063196, 2021. 
Barton, N., Metzger, E. J., Reynolds, C. A., Ruston, B., Rowley, C., Smedstad, O. M., Ridout, J. A., Wallcraft, A., Frolov, S., Hogan, P., Janiga, M. A., Shriver, J. F., McLay, J., Thoppil, P., Huang, A., Crawford, W., Whitcomb, T., Bishop, C. H., Zamudio, L., and Phelps, M.: The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A New Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Prediction System Designed for Daily to Subseasonal Forecasting, Earth Space Sci., 8, e2020EA001199, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001199, 2021. 
Bauer, P., Dueben, P. D., Hoefler, T., Quintino, T., Schulthess, T. C., and Wedi, N. P.: The digital revolution of Earth-system science, Nat. Comput. Sci., 1, 104–113, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-021-00023-0, 2021. 
Brankart, J.-M., Candille, G., Garnier, F., Calone, C., Melet, A., Bouttier, P.-A., Brasseur, P., and Verron, J.: A generic approach to explicit simulation of uncertainty in the NEMO ocean model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1285–1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1285-2015, 2015. 
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This paper explores how using multiple predictions instead of just one can improve ocean forecasts and help prepare for changes in ocean conditions. By combining different forecasts, scientists can better understand the uncertainty in predictions, leading to more reliable forecasts and better decision-making. This method is useful for responding to hazards like oil spills, improving climate forecasts, and supporting decision-making in fields like marine safety and resource management.
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