Articles | Volume 5-opsr
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-20-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-20-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 8.1
| 02 Jun 2025 | OPSR | Chapter 8.1
Towards Earth system modelling: coupled ocean forecasting
Ségolène Berthou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, Exeter, UK
John Siddorn
Data, Science and Technology, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Pierre-Yves Le Traon
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Ibrahim Hoteit
Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3555, 2025
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Meteotsunamis are rare but dangerous anomalous waves triggered by atmospheric disturbances, they are not currently forecast in Northwest Europe. We analysed the strongest recorded event on June 18, 2022, which reached 1 m amplitude. We showed high-resolution, high-frequency coupled models can predict such events up to three days ahead and help better understand their atmospheric triggers. These models, together with improved observations, can enhance early warnings and coastal safety.
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Phytoplankton blooms are governed by the availability of light and nutrients, both of which are affected by mixing in the upper layers of the ocean, which is impacted by wave activity on the surface. Most numerical ocean models estimate waves through a parameterisation, here we explicitly resolve waves through a coupled wave model to examine the impact on the strength and timing of phytoplankton blooms, particular during storms when wave activity is elevated.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
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Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
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Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Nefeli Makrygianni, Ségolène Berthou, David L. A. Flack, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Jonathan Beuvier, Juan Manuel Castillo, Emiliano Renzi, Clare O’Neill, Daniel Peláez-Zapata, Frederic Dias, Huw Lewis, and Diego Bruciaferri
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Volcanic eruptions are natural hazards impacting aviation, environment, and climate. Here, we improve the simulation of volcanic material transport using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) v4.8 model. Analysis of ash, sulfate, and SO2 mass budgets was performed. The direct radiative effect of volcanic aerosols was implemented. A preprocessor, PrepEmisSources, was developed to streamline the preparation of volcanic emissions.
Dale Partridge, Ségolène Berthou, Rebecca Millington, James Clark, Lucy Bricheno, Juan Manuel Castillo, Julia Rulent, and Huw Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3654, 2025
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Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Gérald Dibarboure, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Mounir Benkiran, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Yannice Faugère, and Elisabeth Remy
Ocean Sci., 21, 1329–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1329-2025, 2025
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By providing all weather, global, and real-time observations of sea level, a key variable to constrain ocean analysis and forecasting systems, satellite altimetry has had a profound impact on the development of operational oceanography. This paper provides an overview of the development and evolution of satellite altimetry and operational oceanography over the past 20 years from the launch of Jason-1 in 2001 to the launch of SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) in 2022.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Ibrahim Hoteit, Eric Chassignet, and Mike Bell
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This paper explores how using multiple predictions instead of just one can improve ocean forecasts and help prepare for changes in ocean conditions. By combining different forecasts, scientists can better understand the uncertainty in predictions, leading to more reliable forecasts and better decision-making. This method is useful for responding to hazards like oil spills, improving climate forecasts, and supporting decision-making in fields like marine safety and resource management.
Andreas Schiller, Simon A. Josey, John Siddorn, and Ibrahim Hoteit
State Planet, 5-opsr, 18, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-18-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-18-2025, 2025
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The study illustrates the way atmospheric fields are used in ocean models as boundary conditions for the provisioning of the exchanges of heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes. Such fluxes can be based on remote sensing instruments or provided directly by numerical weather prediction systems. Air–sea flux datasets are defined by their spatial and temporal resolutions and are limited by associated biases. Air–sea flux datasets for ocean models should be chosen with the applications in mind.
Matthew J. Martin, Ibrahim Hoteit, Laurent Bertino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, 2025
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Observations of the ocean from satellites and platforms in the ocean are combined with information from computer models to produce predictions of how the ocean temperature, salinity, and currents will evolve over the coming days and weeks and to describe how the ocean has evolved in the past. This paper summarises the methods used to produce these ocean forecasts at various centres around the world and outlines the practical considerations for implementing such forecasting systems.
Antonio Novellino, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Andy Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-8-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-8-2025, 2025
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This paper discusses the vital role of observations in ocean predictions and forecasting, highlighting the need for effective access, management, and integration of data to improve models and decision-making. The paper also explores opportunities for standardizing protocols and the potential of citizen-based, cost-effective data collection methods.
Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Antonio Novellino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-7-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-7-2025, 2025
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Ocean prediction relies on the integration between models and satellite and in situ observations through data assimilation techniques. The authors discuss the role of observations in operational ocean forecasting systems, describing the state of the art of satellite and in situ observing networks and defining the paths for addressing multi-scale monitoring and forecasting.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
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Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Aliette Chenal, Gilles Garric, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Mathieu Hamon, Giovanni Ruggiero, Florent Garnier, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3633, 2024
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This study proposes to improve the representation of ice and snow volumes in the Arctic and Antarctic based on a novel multivariate assimilation method using freeboard radar and snow depth satellite data. The approach leads to an improved sea ice and snow volume representation, even during summer when satellite data is limited. The performance of the assimilated system is better in the Arctic than in Antarctica, where ocean/ice interactions play a key role.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Manal Hamdeno, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, George Krokos, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Ocean Sci., 20, 1087–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on the characteristics of MHWs in the Red Sea during the last 4 decades. Using satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), we found a clear warming trend in the Red Sea since 1994, which has intensified significantly since 2016. This SST rise was associated with an increase in the frequency and days of MHWs. In addition, a correlation was found between the frequency of MHWs and some climate modes, which was more pronounced in some years of the study period.
Yasser O. Abualnaja, Alexandra Pavlidou, James H. Churchill, Ioannis Hatzianestis, Dimitris Velaoras, Harilaos Kontoyiannis, Vassilis P. Papadopoulos, Aristomenis P. Karageorgis, Georgia Assimakopoulou, Helen Kaberi, Theodoros Kannelopoulos, Constantine Parinos, Christina Zeri, Dionysios Ballas, Elli Pitta, Vassiliki Paraskevopoulou, Afroditi Androni, Styliani Chourdaki, Vassileia Fioraki, Stylianos Iliakis, Georgia Kabouri, Angeliki Konstantinopoulou, Georgios Krokos, Dimitra Papageorgiou, Alkiviadis Papageorgiou, Georgios Pappas, Elvira Plakidi, Eleni Rousselaki, Ioanna Stavrakaki, Eleni Tzempelikou, Panagiota Zachioti, Anthi Yfanti, Theodore Zoulias, Abdulah Al Amoudi, Yasser Alshehri, Ahmad Alharbi, Hammad Al Sulami, Taha Boksmati, Rayan Mutwalli, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1703–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1703-2024, 2024
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We present oceanographic measurements obtained during two surveillance cruises conducted in June and September 2021 in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. It is the first multidisciplinary survey within the Saudi Arabian coastal zone, extending from near the Saudi–Jordanian border in the north of the Red Sea to the south close to the Saudi--Yemen border and in the Arabian Gulf. The objective was to record the pollution status along the coastal zone of the kingdom related to specific pressures.
Mounir Benkiran, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Elisabeth Rémy, and Yann Drillet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-420, 2024
Preprint archived
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The assimilation of altimetry data corrects and improves the forecast of a global ocean forecasting system. Until now, the use of altimetry observations from nadir altimeters has had a major impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. Our study shows that the use of observations from swath altimeters will have a greater impact than the quality of these forecasts and will better constrain mesoscale structures.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
State Planet, 1-osr7, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, 2023
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Rui Sun, Alison Cobb, Ana B. Villas Bôas, Sabique Langodan, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Matthew R. Mazloff, Bruce D. Cornuelle, Arthur J. Miller, Raju Pathak, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3435–3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, 2023
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In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS. We then performed a case study using the newly implemented model to study Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea. We found that the coupled model better simulates the cyclone than the uncoupled model, but the impact of waves on the cyclone is not significant. However, the waves change the sea surface temperature and mixed layer, especially in the cold waves produced due to the cyclone.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
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A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
M. G. Ziliani, M. U. Altaf, B. Aragon, R. Houborg, T. E. Franz, Y. Lu, J. Sheffield, I. Hoteit, and M. F. McCabe
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 1045–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022, 2022
Mounir Benkiran, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Gérald Dibarboure
Ocean Sci., 18, 609–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-609-2022, 2022
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The SSH analysis and 7 d forecast error will be globally reduced by almost 50 %. Surface current forecast errors should be equivalent to today’s surface current analysis errors or alternatively will be improved (variance error reduction) by 30 % at the surface and 50 % for 300 m depth.
The resolution capabilities will be drastically improved and will be closer to 100 km wavelength as opposed to today where they are above 250 km (on average).
Oliver Miguel López Valencia, Kasper Johansen, Bruno José Luis Aragón Solorio, Ting Li, Rasmus Houborg, Yoann Malbeteau, Samer AlMashharawi, Muhammad Umer Altaf, Essam Mohammed Fallatah, Hari Prasad Dasari, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Matthew Francis McCabe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5251–5277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5251-2020, 2020
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The agricultural sector in Saudi Arabia has expanded rapidly over the last few decades, supported by non-renewable groundwater abstraction. This study describes a novel data–model fusion approach to compile national-scale groundwater abstractions and demonstrates its use over 5000 individual center-pivot fields. This method will allow both farmers and water management agencies to make informed water accounting decisions across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
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Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Cited articles
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Short summary
Ocean forecasting is traditionally done independently from atmospheric, wave, or river modelling. We discuss the benefits and challenges of bringing all these modelling systems together for ocean forecasting.
Ocean forecasting is traditionally done independently from atmospheric, wave, or river...
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