Articles | Volume 5-opsr
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-18-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-18-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
02 Jun 2025
| OPSR | Chapter 7.1
| 02 Jun 2025 | OPSR | Chapter 7.1
Atmospheric forcing as a driver for ocean forecasting
Andreas Schiller
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CSIRO Environment, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Simon A. Josey
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
John Siddorn
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Ibrahim Hoteit
Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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The paper describes the significant role that ocean forecasting systems play in the blue economy, demonstrating their direct benefits in improving prediction accuracy and downstream applications.
Michael J. Bell, Andreas Schiller, and Stefania Ciliberti
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Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
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This paper explores how using multiple predictions instead of just one can improve ocean forecasts and help prepare for changes in ocean conditions. By combining different forecasts, scientists can better understand the uncertainty in predictions, leading to more reliable forecasts and better decision-making. This method is useful for responding to hazards like oil spills, improving climate forecasts, and supporting decision-making in fields like marine safety and resource management.
Matthew J. Martin, Ibrahim Hoteit, Laurent Bertino, and Andrew M. Moore
State Planet, 5-opsr, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-9-2025, 2025
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Observations of the ocean from satellites and platforms in the ocean are combined with information from computer models to produce predictions of how the ocean temperature, salinity, and currents will evolve over the coming days and weeks and to describe how the ocean has evolved in the past. This paper summarises the methods used to produce these ocean forecasts at various centres around the world and outlines the practical considerations for implementing such forecasting systems.
Antonio Novellino, Alain Arnaud, Andreas Schiller, and Liying Wan
State Planet, 5-opsr, 25, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-25-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-25-2025, 2025
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The paper describes the significant role that ocean forecasting systems play in the blue economy, demonstrating their direct benefits in improving prediction accuracy and downstream applications.
Ségolène Berthou, John Siddorn, Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Ibrahim Hoteit
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Ocean forecasting is traditionally done independently from atmospheric, wave, or river modelling. We discuss the benefits and challenges of bringing all these modelling systems together for ocean forecasting.
Michael J. Bell, Andreas Schiller, and Stefania Ciliberti
State Planet, 5-opsr, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-10-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-10-2025, 2025
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Manal Hamdeno, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, George Krokos, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Ocean Sci., 20, 1087–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1087-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on the characteristics of MHWs in the Red Sea during the last 4 decades. Using satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), we found a clear warming trend in the Red Sea since 1994, which has intensified significantly since 2016. This SST rise was associated with an increase in the frequency and days of MHWs. In addition, a correlation was found between the frequency of MHWs and some climate modes, which was more pronounced in some years of the study period.
Yasser O. Abualnaja, Alexandra Pavlidou, James H. Churchill, Ioannis Hatzianestis, Dimitris Velaoras, Harilaos Kontoyiannis, Vassilis P. Papadopoulos, Aristomenis P. Karageorgis, Georgia Assimakopoulou, Helen Kaberi, Theodoros Kannelopoulos, Constantine Parinos, Christina Zeri, Dionysios Ballas, Elli Pitta, Vassiliki Paraskevopoulou, Afroditi Androni, Styliani Chourdaki, Vassileia Fioraki, Stylianos Iliakis, Georgia Kabouri, Angeliki Konstantinopoulou, Georgios Krokos, Dimitra Papageorgiou, Alkiviadis Papageorgiou, Georgios Pappas, Elvira Plakidi, Eleni Rousselaki, Ioanna Stavrakaki, Eleni Tzempelikou, Panagiota Zachioti, Anthi Yfanti, Theodore Zoulias, Abdulah Al Amoudi, Yasser Alshehri, Ahmad Alharbi, Hammad Al Sulami, Taha Boksmati, Rayan Mutwalli, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1703–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1703-2024, 2024
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We present oceanographic measurements obtained during two surveillance cruises conducted in June and September 2021 in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. It is the first multidisciplinary survey within the Saudi Arabian coastal zone, extending from near the Saudi–Jordanian border in the north of the Red Sea to the south close to the Saudi--Yemen border and in the Arabian Gulf. The objective was to record the pollution status along the coastal zone of the kingdom related to specific pressures.
Phoebe A. Hudson, Adrien C. H. Martin, Simon A. Josey, Alice Marzocchi, and Athanasios Angeloudis
Ocean Sci., 20, 341–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-341-2024, 2024
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Satellite salinity data are used for the first time to study variability in Arctic freshwater transport from the Lena River and are shown to be a valuable tool for studying this region. These data confirm east/westerly wind is the main control on fresh water and sea ice transport rather than the volume of river runoff. The strong role of the wind suggests understanding how wind patterns will change is key to predicting future Arctic circulation and sea ice concentration.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, 2024
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The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Rui Sun, Alison Cobb, Ana B. Villas Bôas, Sabique Langodan, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Matthew R. Mazloff, Bruce D. Cornuelle, Arthur J. Miller, Raju Pathak, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3435–3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, 2023
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In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS. We then performed a case study using the newly implemented model to study Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea. We found that the coupled model better simulates the cyclone than the uncoupled model, but the impact of waves on the cyclone is not significant. However, the waves change the sea surface temperature and mixed layer, especially in the cold waves produced due to the cyclone.
Rachael N. C. Sanders, Daniel C. Jones, Simon A. Josey, Bablu Sinha, and Gael Forget
Ocean Sci., 18, 953–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-953-2022, 2022
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In 2015, record low temperatures were observed in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean model, we show that surface heat loss in December 2013 caused 75 % of the initial cooling before this "cold blob" was trapped below the surface. The following summer, the cold blob re-emerged due to a strong temperature difference between the surface ocean and below, driving vertical diffusion of heat. Lower than average surface warming then led to the coldest temperature anomalies in August 2015.
M. G. Ziliani, M. U. Altaf, B. Aragon, R. Houborg, T. E. Franz, Y. Lu, J. Sheffield, I. Hoteit, and M. F. McCabe
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 1045–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022, 2022
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, D. Gwyn Evans, Simon A. Josey, Sheldon Bacon, and Ben I. Moat
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-79, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The Arctic is currently warming twice as fast as the global average. This results in enhanced melting and thus freshwater releases into the North Atlantic. Using a combination of observations and models, we show that atmosphere-ocean feedbacks initiated by freshwater releases into the North Atlantic lead to warmer and drier weather over Europe in subsequent summers. The existence of this dynamical link suggests that European summer weather can potentially be predicted months to years in advance.
Tillys Petit, M. Susan Lozier, Simon A. Josey, and Stuart A. Cunningham
Ocean Sci., 17, 1353–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, 2021
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Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. From our analysis, we find that air–sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation in the Iceland Basin. However, the spatial distribution of the subpolar mode water (SPMW) transformation is most sensitive to surface density changes as opposed to the direct influence of the air–sea fluxes.
Oliver Miguel López Valencia, Kasper Johansen, Bruno José Luis Aragón Solorio, Ting Li, Rasmus Houborg, Yoann Malbeteau, Samer AlMashharawi, Muhammad Umer Altaf, Essam Mohammed Fallatah, Hari Prasad Dasari, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Matthew Francis McCabe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5251–5277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5251-2020, 2020
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The agricultural sector in Saudi Arabia has expanded rapidly over the last few decades, supported by non-renewable groundwater abstraction. This study describes a novel data–model fusion approach to compile national-scale groundwater abstractions and demonstrates its use over 5000 individual center-pivot fields. This method will allow both farmers and water management agencies to make informed water accounting decisions across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
Rui Sun, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Arthur J. Miller, Matthew R. Mazloff, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Bruce D. Cornuelle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4221–4244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4221-2019, 2019
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A new regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model, SKRIPS, is developed and presented. The oceanic component is the MITgcm and the atmospheric component is the WRF model. The coupler is implemented using ESMF according to NUOPC protocols. SKRIPS is demonstrated by simulating a series of extreme heat events occurring in the Red Sea region. We show that SKRIPS is capable of performing coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations. In addition, the scalability test shows SKRIPS is computationally efficient.
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez, Guotu Li, Paul Martin Mai, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Omar M. Knio
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3071–3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018, 2018
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One of the most important challenges seismologists and earthquake engineers face is reliably estimating ground motion in an area prone to large damaging earthquakes. This study aimed at better understanding the relationship between characteristics of geological faults (e.g., hypocenter location, rupture size/location, etc.) and resulting ground motion, via statistical analysis of a rupture simulation model. This study provides important insight on ground-motion responses to geological faults.
Khan Zaib Jadoon, Muhammad Umer Altaf, Matthew Francis McCabe, Ibrahim Hoteit, Nisar Muhammad, Davood Moghadas, and Lutz Weihermüller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5375–5383, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5375-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5375-2017, 2017
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In this study electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements were used to estimate soil salinity in an agriculture field irrigated with a drip irrigation system. Electromagnetic model parameters and uncertainty were estimated using adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Application of the MCMC-based inversion to the synthetic and field measurements demonstrates that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil.
Mohamad E. Gharamti, Johan Valstar, Gijs Janssen, Annemieke Marsman, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4561–4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4561-2016, 2016
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The paper addresses the issue of sampling errors when using the ensemble Kalman filter, in particular its hybrid and second-order formulations. The presented work is aimed at estimating concentration and biodegradation rates of subsurface contaminants at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Overall, we found that accounting for both forecast and observation sampling errors in the joint data assimilation system helps recover more accurate state and parameter estimates.
Simona Aracri, Katrin Schroeder, Jacopo Chiggiato, Harry Bryden, Elaine McDonagh, Simon Josey, Yann Hello, and Mireno Borghini
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2016-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2016-65, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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The abyssal velocity of the Northern Current, in the north-western Mediterranean has been estimated using for the first time MERMAIDs, i.e. submarine drifting instruments that record seismic waves. In this study the Northern Current shows an intense activity even in deep layers of the water column. Through pseudo-eulerian statistics different components of the observed variability are analysed and described, revealing the turbulent nature of the Liguro-Provençal basin abyssal circulation.
Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih, Mohamad El Gharamti, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3289–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, 2016
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We derive a new dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for state-parameter estimation. The derivation is based on the one-step-ahead smoothing formulation, and unlike the standard dual EnKF, it is consistent with the Bayesian formulation of the state-parameter estimation problem and uses the observations in both state smoothing and forecast. This is shown to enhance the performance and robustness of the dual EnKF in experiments conducted with a two-dimensional synthetic groundwater aquifer model.
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Short summary
The study illustrates the way atmospheric fields are used in ocean models as boundary conditions for the provisioning of the exchanges of heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes. Such fluxes can be based on remote sensing instruments or provided directly by numerical weather prediction systems. Air–sea flux datasets are defined by their spatial and temporal resolutions and are limited by associated biases. Air–sea flux datasets for ocean models should be chosen with the applications in mind.
The study illustrates the way atmospheric fields are used in ocean models as boundary conditions...
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