Numerical Models for Monitoring and Forecasting Ocean Ecosystems: a short description of present status

Abstract. Understanding and managing marine ecosystems under potential stress from human activities or climate change requires the development of models with different degree of sophistication in order to be capable of predicting changes in living components and environmental variables. Recent advances in ecosystem modelling are the focus of this paper, which reviews numerical approaches to analyse the characteristics of marine conditions in terms of typical units, i.e., individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems. In particular, it examines the current classification of numerical models of increasing complexity – from individuals and population and stock assessment models to models representing the whole ecosystem by covering all trophic levels – and presents examples and their operational maturity, finally demonstrating their use for supporting marine resource management, conservation, planning and mitigation actions.