the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 26 Sep 2024
End User Applications for Ocean Forecasting: present status description
Abstract. The direct benefit of developing ocean forecasting systems and in improving the accuracy of the predictions is practically demonstrated through downstream applications. These systems are considered pillars of the Blue Economy, offering potential for economy, environmental sustainability, creation of new job opportunities and actively supporting decision making. In this paper, the authors outline the main sectors currently benefiting from ocean model products, reviewing the state-of-the-art and potential use for societal activities, management and planning.
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RC1: 'Comment on sp-2024-25', Laurent Delauney, 24 Nov 2024
The article “End User Applications for Ocean Forecasting” is a condensed overview of the application domains of ocean forecasting. The article is based on publications by sector from 2004 to 2021. The domains “Marine Transport", “Search and Rescue”, “Services for Ports and Cities”, “Offshore oil and gas”, “Offshore renewable energy”, “Ocean Health”, “Aquaculture”, “Coastal tourism” and “Disaster Risk Reduction”.
There may be other key sectors missing that could have been analysed: “Education”, “Regulatory Compliance”, “Maritime Surveillance” and “Naval Operations for the Defense and Security domain, and “Fish Stock Management”.
To perfect the proposed state of the art, the article could have shown how these applications were accessible to the expected users, by which adapted tools, is the current situation satisfactory in terms of ease of access, reliability, responsiveness, adaptability and whether current services make the best use of new technologies that are reaching maturity.
The article could also perhaps propose a short prospective chapter, even if the title of the article does not suggest it.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-25-RC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Antonio Novellino, 19 Dec 2024
We would like to thank the reviewer for the very useful comments and suggestions. We are reshaping the paper to incorporate as much feedback as possible while maintaining brevity and conciseness. We have reorganized the content into more general sections to provide selected (not exhaustive) use cases and perspective to inspire the reader.
in the following the new proposed section 2:
Operational Services for Ports and Cities
Port and coastal cities need ocean forecasting data for several reasons. A good example of this kind of applications can be found on the OSPAC (Operational Services for Ports and Cities) software system, consisting of an integrated set of tools and measuring instruments that provide an operational service to the city and the adjacent port in order to minimize risks and improve environmental management. In these systems there are two main service layers: the first one includes forecast models of local sea conditions and, based on these models, a second layer provides real-time alerts on extreme values of coastal variables such as water quality, currents, and sea state that are used for a variety of applications (Reboa A et al, 2024; Gaughan et al., 2019; NOAA, 2021; OECD, 2016; OECD, 2018; Rayner et al., 2019).
Marine Transport, Surveillance, Naval Operations and marine SAR
Maritime transport plays a key role in the EU economy and trade, estimated to represent between 75% and 90% (depending on the sources, EMSA [https://www.emsa.europa.eu/eumaritimeprofile.html]) of the EU’s external trade and one third of the intra-EU trade. EU passenger ships can carry up to 1.3 million passengers, representing 40 % of the world’s passenger transport capacity. Marine surveillance and naval operations are critical to ensuring the security of marine operations. The sector consumes forecasting data on weather and ocean conditions to, for example, determine the optimal route and time of departure for a vessel, optimize mission route, and minimize risks to personnel and equipment (Novellino et al. 2021; Życzkowski et al., 2019; Bitner-Gregersen et al., 2014; Schnurr and Walker, 2019). These models can help improve the safety and efficiency of marine transport while minimizing fuel consumption and environmental impacts (Wan et al., 2018). Related to naval operations the search and rescue (SAR) operations use evidence-based methods to plan, execute, and evaluate SAR operations (Futch and Allen, 2019). SAR needs gathering and processing relevant data and information, such as weather and ocean forecasts, topography and geography of the area, and the real time information of the nature of the incident and its evolution (Révelard et al., 2021; Coppini et al., 2016). This information is used, for example, to minimize the search areas.
Offshore operations
Offshore operations provide access to sources of energy and raw materials necessary for the economy. Ocean forecasting services are crucial for offshore operations: for oil and gas activities, they support oil spill trajectory modeling, data-driven approaches to forecasting production, maintenance support, and many other uses (Keramea et al., 2021); for offshore renewable energy production, they enable the accurate prediction of energy and yields operational efficiency (Uihlein and Magagna, 2016).
Aquaculture and Fish Stock Management
The EU has highlighted the need for a new strategy for aquaculture to become sustainable and to enable future growth in this sector (COM/2021/236) and the new approach for a sustainable blue economy (COM/2021/240). Currently, the need for blue sector food products in the EU is mostly met through imports, around 60 %, (“The EU Fish Market" EUMOFA 2020 edition), while EU aquaculture accounts for only 20 % of fish and shellfish supply. The rising population demands radical solutions towards food security, which cannot be solely met through land-based agriculture. Seaweed (macroalgae) aquaculture has the potential to supplement food supplies, enhance the maritime economy, and enable ecosystem services (Maar et al 2023).
In this framework, forecasting services play an important role by providing valuable information to help improve production efficiency, reduce risks, and ensure sustainable practices, such as production planning. The services are helping to determine optimal production plans, e.g. size and timing of harvests, based on factors like water temperature, nutrient levels, and fish growth rates. These services are also supporting the impact prediction of environmental factors, such as ocean extremes and pollution levels (Sangiuliano, 2018). Another component of the sustainable Blue Economy is the balancing the need for productive fisheries with the preservation of marine biodiversity, i.e. the fish stock management. By predicting environmental factors like water temperature, salinity, and ocean currents, models also help anticipate shifts in fish behavior and distribution and optimizing daily operations. In addition to operational benefits, forecasting models support regulatory compliance by aiding fisheries in adhering to quotas, seasonal closures, and protected area guidelines set by organizations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and regional fishery management bodies.
Coastal tourism
Coastal tourism plays an important role in many EU Member State economies, with a wide-ranging impact on economic growth, employment and social development. Coastal tourism is the largest Blue Economy sector, representing 44% of the Gross Value Added (GVA) and 63 % of the employment of the total EU Blue Economy. The value of models for coastal tourisms goes from short term weather forecast to long-term including climate change, sea level rise, and tourism demand, forecasting tourism demand using machine learning algorithms, and predicting coastal tourism vulnerability, e.g. dangerous weather and ocean conditions (extreme events) including sea level (storm surge) events and their relevance in inundation and coastal destruction processes (Le Traon et al., 2015), to climate change and sea-level rise (da Costa et al. 2024).
Education
Education and ocean literacy are integral to fostering a sustainable Blue Economy. By combining formal education with efforts to increase public understanding of the ocean's vital role in supporting life and economies, stakeholders can build a knowledgeable and engaged society. Academic institutions, vocational training centers, and research organizations are developing interdisciplinary programs that integrate technical expertise with environmental stewardship, preparing a workforce adept in ocean sciences, renewable energy, aquaculture, and maritime logistics (Novellino et al. 2022). Ocean literacy initiatives further complement these efforts by raising awareness about marine ecosystems, their resources, and the challenges they face, such as pollution and climate change (see e.g. https://eurogoos.eu/ocean-literacy-resources/). Public campaigns, community engagement projects, and educational outreach help individuals and communities understand the importance of sustainable practices.
Perspectives
The future of the Blue Economy is deeply intertwined with the ability to harness advanced scientific tools, such as ocean forecasting models, to address emerging challenges and seize new opportunities. The EU Digital Twin of the Ocean, a cutting-edge initiative combining high-resolution ocean data with advanced simulation capabilities, represents a transformative leap in understanding and managing marine environments. This digital twin allows for real-time modeling and prediction of ocean conditions, offering unprecedented opportunities for sectors like maritime transport, renewable energy, fisheries, and coastal management to make data-driven decisions. The integration of cloud services further amplifies the potential of the digital twin by enabling scalability, real-time access, and computational efficiency. Cloud platforms make it feasible to process vast amounts of data, perform complex simulations, and deliver actionable insights to stakeholders across industries and regions. These technologies facilitate the democratization of ocean data, ensuring that even small-scale operators can leverage state-of-the-art tools to optimize their activities and align with sustainability goals. A key perspective is the integration of these advancements into a holistic framework that supports sustainable development, equitable resource distribution, and robust regulatory compliance. The transition to renewable energy sources, advancements in sustainable aquaculture, and the growing role of marine spatial planning highlight the need for interdisciplinary approaches that combine ecological stewardship with economic growth. Moreover, scaling solutions through the cloud enables seamless collaboration across international borders, fostering knowledge exchange and ensuring that technological progress benefits all nations, particularly those heavily reliant on marine resources. Ultimately, the Blue Economy offers a pathway to achieving global sustainability goals, providing food security, clean energy, and economic resilience while preserving marine ecosystems.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-25-AC2
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AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Antonio Novellino, 19 Dec 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on sp-2024-25', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Dec 2024
The manuscript, entitled "End User Applications for Ocean Forecasting: Present Status Description" by A. Novellino et al., aims to provide an overview of the benefits of ocean forecasting systems for the Blue Economy. This very short note provides an overview of select downstream applications of ocean forecasting systems.
The article introduces the interconnections between the Blue Economy and ocean forecasting systems, subsequently delineating a number of applications.
The primary issue with this proposed publication is that the manuscript is structured around a list of examples that lack sufficient explanation regarding their selection criteria. For instance, the section entitled "Search and Rescue" is included despite the absence of any mention of this topic in the introduction.
A clear classification of the applications considered in this present status description would greatly enhance the manuscript.
To enhance the quality of the displayed messages, it would be beneficial to include illustrative examples with figures from the model applications.
Ultimately, the paper end like in the middle of the list without any concluding statements or an overview on what are the key messages of the note.
In light of the aforementioned general comments, I would recommend a major revision of the manuscript content.
Specific comments
- Figure 1 is not cited in the text. Furthermore, displayed parts in the figure are not corresponding to the example chose in the text (for example, Search And Rescue). Figure and text need to be synchronized.
- Some acronyms are not defined: ETOOFS, EOCD (even in reference), GVA
- Marine Transport:
+ l. 46/ p.3: Please add some references, at least for mentioned values (75% and 90%).
+ l. 49 / p.3: The statement concerning the improvement of safety and efficiency of marine transport should be developed or at least explained.
- Search and Rescue: Some references and/or examples should be added.
- Ocean renewable energy production: The role of ocean forecasting systems to evaluate the impacts of renewable energy platforms is not mentioned and discussed despite the fact that it is a major demand from users .
- Ocean health: There is a mismatch between the application title (ocean health) and the content only dedicated on extremes. Ocean health concerns broader applications such as environmental trends and contaminants/pollutions.
- Disaster risk reduction: This constitutes a significant direct application for ocean forecasting systems, which is very briefly discussed in the text. It would be needed to include some references and examples in the manuscript.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-25-RC2 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Antonio Novellino, 19 Dec 2024
We would like to thank the reviewer for the very useful comments and suggestions. We are reshaping the paper to incorporate as much feedback as possible while maintaining brevity and conciseness. The general goal is not to provide an exhaustive review of all possible applications but to highlight specific use cases, primarily related to the Blue Growth sectors (as defined by the European Commission).
Additionally, we have rewritten the final paragraph to make it more comprehensive.
Answers to specific comments:
Figure 1 and acronyms: Thank you for the comments. We have updated the document accordingly.
Marine Transport: The EMSA repository serves as the primary source for references and figures.
Search and Rescue, Ocean Renewable Energy, Ocean Health, and Disaster Reduction sections: We have reorganized the content into more general sections to provide selected (not exhaustive) use cases and references to inspire the reader. We would like to emphasize that the scope of this paper is not a literature review but an inspiring and perspective-focused fractal.
in the following the new proposed section 2:
Operational Services for Ports and Cities
Port and coastal cities need ocean forecasting data for several reasons. A good example of this kind of applications can be found on the OSPAC (Operational Services for Ports and Cities) software system, consisting of an integrated set of tools and measuring instruments that provide an operational service to the city and the adjacent port in order to minimize risks and improve environmental management. In these systems there are two main service layers: the first one includes forecast models of local sea conditions and, based on these models, a second layer provides real-time alerts on extreme values of coastal variables such as water quality, currents, and sea state that are used for a variety of applications (Reboa A et al, 2024; Gaughan et al., 2019; NOAA, 2021; OECD, 2016; OECD, 2018; Rayner et al., 2019).
Marine Transport, Surveillance, Naval Operations and marine SAR
Maritime transport plays a key role in the EU economy and trade, estimated to represent between 75% and 90% (depending on the sources, EMSA [https://www.emsa.europa.eu/eumaritimeprofile.html]) of the EU’s external trade and one third of the intra-EU trade. EU passenger ships can carry up to 1.3 million passengers, representing 40 % of the world’s passenger transport capacity. Marine surveillance and naval operations are critical to ensuring the security of marine operations. The sector consumes forecasting data on weather and ocean conditions to, for example, determine the optimal route and time of departure for a vessel, optimize mission route, and minimize risks to personnel and equipment (Novellino et al. 2021; Życzkowski et al., 2019; Bitner-Gregersen et al., 2014; Schnurr and Walker, 2019). These models can help improve the safety and efficiency of marine transport while minimizing fuel consumption and environmental impacts (Wan et al., 2018). Related to naval operations the search and rescue (SAR) operations use evidence-based methods to plan, execute, and evaluate SAR operations (Futch and Allen, 2019). SAR needs gathering and processing relevant data and information, such as weather and ocean forecasts, topography and geography of the area, and the real time information of the nature of the incident and its evolution (Révelard et al., 2021; Coppini et al., 2016). This information is used, for example, to minimize the search areas.
Offshore operations
Offshore operations provide access to sources of energy and raw materials necessary for the economy. Ocean forecasting services are crucial for offshore operations: for oil and gas activities, they support oil spill trajectory modeling, data-driven approaches to forecasting production, maintenance support, and many other uses (Keramea et al., 2021); for offshore renewable energy production, they enable the accurate prediction of energy and yields operational efficiency (Uihlein and Magagna, 2016).
Aquaculture and Fish Stock Management
The EU has highlighted the need for a new strategy for aquaculture to become sustainable and to enable future growth in this sector (COM/2021/236) and the new approach for a sustainable blue economy (COM/2021/240). Currently, the need for blue sector food products in the EU is mostly met through imports, around 60 %, (“The EU Fish Market" EUMOFA 2020 edition), while EU aquaculture accounts for only 20 % of fish and shellfish supply. The rising population demands radical solutions towards food security, which cannot be solely met through land-based agriculture. Seaweed (macroalgae) aquaculture has the potential to supplement food supplies, enhance the maritime economy, and enable ecosystem services (Maar et al 2023).
In this framework, forecasting services play an important role by providing valuable information to help improve production efficiency, reduce risks, and ensure sustainable practices, such as production planning. The services are helping to determine optimal production plans, e.g. size and timing of harvests, based on factors like water temperature, nutrient levels, and fish growth rates. These services are also supporting the impact prediction of environmental factors, such as ocean extremes and pollution levels (Sangiuliano, 2018). Another component of the sustainable Blue Economy is the balancing the need for productive fisheries with the preservation of marine biodiversity, i.e. the fish stock management. By predicting environmental factors like water temperature, salinity, and ocean currents, models also help anticipate shifts in fish behavior and distribution and optimizing daily operations. In addition to operational benefits, forecasting models support regulatory compliance by aiding fisheries in adhering to quotas, seasonal closures, and protected area guidelines set by organizations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and regional fishery management bodies.
Coastal tourism
Coastal tourism plays an important role in many EU Member State economies, with a wide-ranging impact on economic growth, employment and social development. Coastal tourism is the largest Blue Economy sector, representing 44% of the Gross Value Added (GVA) and 63 % of the employment of the total EU Blue Economy. The value of models for coastal tourisms goes from short term weather forecast to long-term including climate change, sea level rise, and tourism demand, forecasting tourism demand using machine learning algorithms, and predicting coastal tourism vulnerability, e.g. dangerous weather and ocean conditions (extreme events) including sea level (storm surge) events and their relevance in inundation and coastal destruction processes (Le Traon et al., 2015), to climate change and sea-level rise (da Costa et al. 2024).
Education
Education and ocean literacy are integral to fostering a sustainable Blue Economy. By combining formal education with efforts to increase public understanding of the ocean's vital role in supporting life and economies, stakeholders can build a knowledgeable and engaged society. Academic institutions, vocational training centers, and research organizations are developing interdisciplinary programs that integrate technical expertise with environmental stewardship, preparing a workforce adept in ocean sciences, renewable energy, aquaculture, and maritime logistics (Novellino et al. 2022). Ocean literacy initiatives further complement these efforts by raising awareness about marine ecosystems, their resources, and the challenges they face, such as pollution and climate change (see e.g. https://eurogoos.eu/ocean-literacy-resources/). Public campaigns, community engagement projects, and educational outreach help individuals and communities understand the importance of sustainable practices.
Perspectives
The future of the Blue Economy is deeply intertwined with the ability to harness advanced scientific tools, such as ocean forecasting models, to address emerging challenges and seize new opportunities. The EU Digital Twin of the Ocean, a cutting-edge initiative combining high-resolution ocean data with advanced simulation capabilities, represents a transformative leap in understanding and managing marine environments. This digital twin allows for real-time modeling and prediction of ocean conditions, offering unprecedented opportunities for sectors like maritime transport, renewable energy, fisheries, and coastal management to make data-driven decisions. The integration of cloud services further amplifies the potential of the digital twin by enabling scalability, real-time access, and computational efficiency. Cloud platforms make it feasible to process vast amounts of data, perform complex simulations, and deliver actionable insights to stakeholders across industries and regions. These technologies facilitate the democratization of ocean data, ensuring that even small-scale operators can leverage state-of-the-art tools to optimize their activities and align with sustainability goals. A key perspective is the integration of these advancements into a holistic framework that supports sustainable development, equitable resource distribution, and robust regulatory compliance. The transition to renewable energy sources, advancements in sustainable aquaculture, and the growing role of marine spatial planning highlight the need for interdisciplinary approaches that combine ecological stewardship with economic growth. Moreover, scaling solutions through the cloud enables seamless collaboration across international borders, fostering knowledge exchange and ensuring that technological progress benefits all nations, particularly those heavily reliant on marine resources. Ultimately, the Blue Economy offers a pathway to achieving global sustainability goals, providing food security, clean energy, and economic resilience while preserving marine ecosystems.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-25-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Antonio Novellino, 19 Dec 2024
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