Forecasting the Mediterranean Sea marine heatwave of summer 2022

McAdam, Ronan; Bonino, Giulia; Clementi, Emanuela; Masina, Simona

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024

Articles | Volume 4-osr8

https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Report:

8th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR8)

https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 4-osr8

30 Sep 2024

| OSR8 | Chapter 4.1

| 30 Sep 2024 | OSR8 | Chapter 4.1

Forecasting the Mediterranean Sea marine heatwave of summer 2022

Ronan McAdam, Giulia Bonino, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina

Data sets

Mediterranean Sea Physics Reanalysis EU Copernicus Marine Service Product https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004_E3R1

Mediterranean Sea - High Resolution L4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed EU Copernicus Marine Service Product https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00173

Mediterranean Sea Physics Analysis and Forecast EU Copernicus Marine Service Product https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_ANALYSISFORECAST_PHY_006_013_EAS7

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

Forecasting the Mediterranean Sea marine heatwave of summer 2022 Ronan McAdam et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10944086

Short summary

In the summer of 2022, a regional short-term forecasting system was able to predict the onset, spread, peaks, and decay of a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea up to 10 d in advance. Satellite data show that the event was record-breaking in terms of basin-wide intensity and duration. This study demonstrates the potential of state-of-the-art forecasting systems to provide early warning of marine heatwaves for marine activities (e.g. conservation and aquaculture).