the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 26 Sep 2024
Numerical Models for Monitoring and Forecasting Sea Level: a short description of present status
Abstract. Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to climate changes impacts. Such objectives can be achieved by using advanced numerical models that are based on shallow water equations used to simulate storm surge generation and propagation due to atmospheric pressure and winds, or with ocean general circulation, baroclinic models. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, that can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
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RC1: 'Comment on sp-2024-27', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Nov 2024
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The authors propose an overview of the numerical models currently available to support the monitoring and forecasting of sea level variability. In the context of climate change, various factors drive changes in the observed mean sea level and the occurrence of extreme sea level events. The manuscript summarizes the characteristics and limitations of these numerical models, emphasizing their relevance in supporting adaptation strategies and early warning systems.
The paper is well-written and organized, with a clear objective outlined in the title and abstract. The proposed overview is valuable for readers seeking a general introduction to the current state of numerical models supporting the sea level analysis. However, in my opinion, the intended target audience of this manuscript remains unclear. Readers already familiar with this topic might benefit from additional references to key scientific results, while a general audience needs some more clarifications on the differences between the models (see specific comments).
Considering the identified weaknesses, I believe that the paper is suitable for publication after undergoing a minor revision process.
Specific comments:
In general, most of the information is supported by references, but some sentences are not, making it difficult for readers to explore further if interested. I found two main points:
- to support the description of unstructured meshes (section 3.1). Although it is a detail in the model description, their implementation significantly enhances the simulation of coastal processes.
- to describe the GRD effects, as these are usually not considered by ocean models.
I also suggest enhancing the description of the factors that limit the model accuracy as a key point in Section 2.
Finally, I would clarify the differences between 3D hydrodynamic models and 3D baroclinic OGCMs (sections 3.1 and 3.2).
Technical corrections:
Some acronymous are not defined in the text, like TG, WL, OOFS, MFC.
Figure captions could be improved to allow readers to understand the content without looking at the original source.
In Figure 1: the global mean sea level rise units are not specified (bottom-left colorbar), and the references in numbers have no correspondence within the manuscript.
In Figure 2: for clarity, I would specify which model uses the presented grid and what the red and blue dots refer to. The tide gauges network is not directly described in the text, but it is mentioned in line 88 to improve storm surge models.
In Figure 3: the acronymous are not defined (TG and WL), making the figure difficult to understand for a general reader.
Typing errors:
Line 33: ”IOC-UNESCO, 2022” is not in the references list. Is it the same of Aouf et al (2022) ?
Line 55: “operational systems. Are available”
Line 67: a closing parenthesis is missing in “number of flights disrupted and risk to”
Line 137: change reference style for “[12]”
Line 149: double period “..”
Line 158: typo in the reference year of “Alvarez-Fanjul et al., 2021” (2001?)
Line 217: the publication year is missing in Dodet et al. (2019?)
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27-RC1 -
RC2: 'Comment on sp-2024-27', Georg Umgiesser, 19 Nov 2024
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General comments:
The article gives an overview on sea level forecasting. It does not go much into much detail, simply showing the applications and inherent problems of modelling the sea level, both for storm surge applications and for general circulation applications. Most of the available models are cited, but not referenced, but this would probably be overkill for such a short article as this one.
I have some slight changes to suggest before the article can be published. Therefore, the article can be published after little minor review.
Specific comments:
70: there needs to be a Section Title “3. Numerical Models” with some text to explain what comes next, that you divided the discussion into storm surge, GCM, and ensemble forecast models. Then you can start with 3.1
73: since you make reference to figure 2 some lines below, which comes from an article where the authors have used SHYFEM, it would be just logical to include into the list also SHYFEM as a storm surge model.
81: “do not simulate changes in mean sea level…” please be more precise. They do not simulate sea level anomalies due to baroclinic effects.
85: missing full stop after (Wang et al., 2022)
Figures: as I can see it, the figures have been reproduced from existing articles, which have been also referenced. However, these references should be inserted in the Reference list at the end of the article. As I can see, the reference to Bajo et al., 2023 is missing.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27-RC2
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