Numerical Models for Monitoring and Forecasting Sea Ice: a short description of present status

Abstract. The severe changes in climate resulting in the polar oceans getting warmer – with drastic consequences to their physical, biogeochemical and biological state – require forecasting systems that can accurately simulate and skilfully predict the state of the ice cover and its temporal evolution. Sea-ice processes significantly impact ocean circulation, water mass formation and modifications, and air-sea fluxes. They comprise vertical processes, mainly related to thermodynamics, and horizontal ones, due to internal sea ice mechanics and motion. We provide an overview on how these processes can be modelled and how operational systems are working, in combination with data assimilation techniques, to enhance accuracy and reliability. We also emphasize the need for advancing research on improving such numerical techniques by highlighting currents limits and ways forward.